Bitcoin or Ethereum in the fourth quarter of 2026: the two largest crypto-assets compared

Bitcoin or Ethereum: the question comes up again at the start of every quarter for anyone planning an entry or a reallocation. An honest answer does not begin with the price but with what the two networks actually are. Bitcoin is a payment and store-of-value network with a firmly limited money supply. Ethereum is a platform on which programs run and outside capital is managed. Both compete on the market for the same money, but they solve different tasks.

This comparison puts side by side the figures that can be verified: supply and money-supply growth, actual usage, relative size on the market, the question of a running yield, and access for investors in Germany including tax. You will not find a price forecast or a buy recommendation here, and anyone promising you a certain answer to the price question in October does not have one either.

Bitcoin and Ethereum solve two different tasks

Bitcoin launched in 2009 with a narrowly drawn purpose: transferring and storing value without an intermediary. The protocol can deliberately do little, and that very frugality is the product. Anyone buying Bitcoin is buying the scarcity rule and the expectation that it holds.

Ethereum went live in 2015 and allows programs on the blockchain, so-called smart contracts. Credit markets, trading venues without a central counterparty, stablecoins and tokenised assets run on it. Anyone buying Ether is buying a share in this network's computing capacity: Ether is the means of payment for every transaction on it and at the same time the collateral that validators post.

What this difference does for valuation

Bitcoin can be valued almost only through supply and demand, because there is barely any cash flow to set against it. Ethereum, by contrast, generates fees and burns part of them; there, a figure exists that can be pinned to usage. That does not automatically make Ethereum easier to value, it merely shifts the question: with Bitcoin the scarcity is the argument, with Ethereum the utilisation.

Supply: 20.09 of 21 million Bitcoin are already in circulation

Bitcoin has a hard ceiling of 21 million units. As of October 2, 2026, roughly 20.09 million of them have been created, which is just under 96 percent. New Bitcoin arise solely as a reward for mining, and this reward halves roughly every four years. Since the halving in April 2024 it has stood at 3.125 Bitcoin per block; the next halving is due in 2028. The annual growth of the money supply is therefore in the low single-digit percentage range and continues to fall.

This curve is the core of the Bitcoin argument: the supply is known in advance and cannot be changed by anyone, as long as the majority of participants stick to the rules. What the curve does not say is anything about demand. A scarce good without buyers falls just as much as one that can be multiplied at will.

Ethereum has no ceiling: roughly 0.85 percent growth at an annualised pace

For Ether there is no fixed ceiling. Depending on the source, the quantity stands at roughly 120 to 122 million Ether. New units arise as a reward for validators, and at the same time part of every transaction fee has been permanently destroyed since the fee reform of 2021. What is left at the end therefore depends on how heavily the network is used.

We measured this balance ourselves over 24 hours on October 2: in that period the Ether supply grew by roughly 2,840 units. Extrapolated to a year, that corresponds to about 0.85 percent growth. This value is a snapshot of a single day and not an annual figure. It tips into negative territory as soon as there is a lot going on the network, and rises in quiet phases. ultrasound.money shows the running balance continuously.

Scarcity with a condition instead of scarcity by rule

The difference is fundamental. With Bitcoin the scarcity is written into the protocol. With Ethereum it arises from usage and can reverse. Anyone buying Ether for the scarcity is buying a bet on the network's utilisation, not on a rule.

Usage: 56 percent of DeFi capital sits on Ethereum

The most tangible measure of a smart contract platform's usage is the capital tied up in its applications, the so-called total value locked. On October 2, 2026, roughly $96.8 billion sat in such applications across all blockchains. Of that, $54.4 billion fell to Ethereum, so a good 56 percent. Next came Solana with just under $7 billion, Base with roughly $6.5 billion, and BNB Chain and Tron with just under $6 billion each. DefiLlama keeps the running distribution across all chains. Bitcoin accounted for $4.6 billion and thus just under 5 percent.

This distribution is the strongest argument on the Ethereum side: despite years of competition from faster and cheaper networks, more than half of the tied-up capital still sits on Ethereum. Against that stands an objection which is equally documented: Base is itself an Ethereum extension, and part of the growth is therefore happening alongside the main chain, where fewer fees arise. Which figure you read depends on exactly that: our 56 percent apply to the main chain alone, while surveys that count extension networks name values of up to roughly 68 percent for Ethereum. Both figures are correct, they are simply measuring different things.

What the figure does not measure

Tied-up capital says nothing about profits, user numbers or durability. It can flow out within days, and part of it is the same capital counted several times across multiple applications. For Bitcoin the figure is secondary anyway, because there was never a claim there to carry applications.

Market capitalisation and dominance: Bitcoin weighs a good five times as much

On October 2, 2026 Bitcoin came to a market capitalisation of roughly $1,742 billion, Ethereum to roughly $336 billion. Bitcoin is thus worth a good five times Ethereum. Measured against the entire crypto market of roughly $3,080 billion, Bitcoin accounted for about 56.5 percent, the so-called dominance.

A second value belongs alongside for context: both were well below their all-time highs on that day. Bitcoin stood roughly 31 percent below its high from October 2025, Ethereum roughly 44 percent below its high from August 2025. That is no argument for or against an entry, it merely shows that Ethereum has given up more ground in this market phase.

Staking: only Ethereum pays a running yield

Ethereum has secured its network through staking since 2022. Anyone who deposits Ether receives a share of new units and of the fees. The size of this yield is not fixed: the rate falls the more Ether are deposited in total, and rises when the network is heavily used. Nobody gives an assurance about the level, and every figure a provider names is a snapshot.

Bitcoin knows nothing comparable. There is no protocol yield. Where a yield on Bitcoin is offered to you, it comes from a provider's lending or custody business, and with it you carry that provider's default risk. You should keep this difference in mind with every offer that names Bitcoin and a fixed rate of interest in the same sentence.

Three catches with staking

• Your Ether is tied up during staking, and on exit it only becomes available again after a waiting period.
• Misbehaviour by a validator's software can cost part of the deposited amount, even if you are not to blame for it yourself.
• Staking through a provider means leaving them the keys, or at least the handling.

Access in Germany: direct purchase, savings plan or exchange-traded product

For both assets there are essentially two routes in Germany. With a direct purchase through a crypto exchange the coins themselves belong to you, and you can withdraw them to your own address. With an exchange-traded product you buy, through your normal securities account, a paper that tracks the price; in the EU these are as a rule ETNs, meaning debt instruments, not funds. Which variants exist and how they differ is something we broke down in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany.

The difference is bigger than it first appears. An ETN is a claim against the issuer, even when it is backed with coins. In return it runs through the familiar securities account, is easy to buy into regularly and falls under the flat-rate withholding tax. With a direct purchase, by contrast, you carry the responsibility for custody and can in return make use of the one-year holding period. For regular purchases over long periods, a look at the savings plan comparison is worthwhile, because the running costs weigh more heavily over years than the entry price.

Tax: a one-year holding period for both, with separate rules for staking income

For directly held coins, Section 23 of the Income Tax Act applies in Germany. If you sell after more than twelve months, the gain is tax free. If you sell earlier, the gain counts as a private disposal; if the total of all such gains in a year stays below 1,000 euros, nothing is due, and once the limit is reached the entire amount is taxable. That applies to Bitcoin and Ether alike.

With Ether a second point comes on top. Staking income is taxable as other income in the year it is received, valued at the price on the day of receipt. The units received then start their own holding period. Anyone receiving many small credits over the year therefore has bookkeeping to do that a pure Bitcoin holder does not need. Tools that capture such inflows automatically are in our overview of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers. With ETNs in a securities account, by contrast, the flat-rate withholding tax applies, and there is no holding period there.

A note on the legal position

Crypto tax law is currently being worked on. A draft bill with a cabinet date in October 2026 is on the table, and with it deadlines and reporting duties could change. For the current year the position above applies; anyone planning a larger reallocation should keep an eye on developments and seek tax advice if in doubt.

Risks that apply to both sides

A comparison that only lists arguments helps nobody. These points hit both assets.

• Market risk. Both prices swing heavily and can fall over months. Drawdowns of more than 40 percent from the high have occurred several times historically with both and are also on the books right now.
• Custody risk. Anyone holding their own coins carries the risk of lost keys. Anyone trusting the exchange carries its default and fraud risk.
• Regulatory risk. Access routes, products and tax rules can be shaped politically and have changed several times in recent years.
• Counterparty risk with products. An ETN does not automatically survive the insolvency of its issuer, even when it is collateralised.
• Technical risk. With smart contracts and extension networks, Ethereum carries more moving parts and therefore more attack surface; Bitcoin in return carries the risk that the mining reward has to be replaced by fees in the long run.

Dates in the fourth quarter that can move both prices

The rest of the year brings data for both assets that can move prices: interest rate decisions, inflows into exchange-traded products and, on the Ethereum side, the progress of the next network upgrade, whose date for the main network is not yet confirmed. Which of these are due when is something we gathered in our overview of crypto dates in the fourth quarter.

What cannot be derived from it is a direction. A known date is as a rule already priced in, and nobody knows in advance how the market will react to the outcome. The value of a calendar lies in not being surprised, not in predicting the next swing.

How our archive answered the question in 2023

We have run this comparison once before, back then under entirely different circumstances: our article on the question of whether Bitcoin or Ethereum was the better investment dates from February 2023 and still argued with the then-fresh switch to staking. The comparison shows one thing above all: the arguments age, the structure of the two networks remains.

Bitcoin or Ethereum: the key points for your decision

Three steps with which the question can be answered for you:

1. Decide on the task first, not on the coin. If you are looking for a position on a fixed scarcity rule, the road leads to Bitcoin. If you are looking for a share in a platform whose value hangs on usage, it leads to Ether. The purchase routes and costs for both are in the buy Bitcoin comparison.
2. Settle the purchase route before you settle the amount. Direct purchase with your own custody and a holding period, or an exchange-traded product in a securities account, are two different worlds for tax. For regular instalments the savings plan comparison is worthwhile.
3. Set up the bookkeeping before the first purchase runs. The acquisition date, price and fee for each purchase belong on record, and with Ether every staking credit as well. The providers for that are in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges and in our tax overview.

(As of October 2, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)