Shiba Inu Price Prediction: Down 53 Percent in Twelve Months, What to Watch on the Holding Period

What is confirmed: Shiba Inu stands at $0.00000468 in the night to November 1, October has therefore closed with a loss of 18.7 percent, and anyone who bought the coin on November 1, 2025, is sitting on a loss of 53.3 percent. Our assessment follows further down: for holders in Germany, the deadline in tax law matters more these days than any chart level.

The twelve months are not a neat storyline but a deadline with legal consequences. Under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, selling a coin held as a private asset is tax-free if more than one year lies between purchase and sale. Anyone who bought on November 1, 2025, reaches that point on November 2, 2026. What sounds like a tax gift turns around in the case of a loss, and that is the decision due this week. Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our Shiba Inu price prediction.

October closes at $0.00000468

On Saturday evening SHIB trades at $0.00000468 on CoinGecko. The daily high was $0.00000483 and the daily low $0.00000467, so October closes only around one percent above the day's lowest point. Market capitalisation stands at $2.76 billion, and trading over the past 24 hours adds up to $38.3 million.

That $38.3 million is the real anomaly of the day. Over the past 30 days, an average of $64.2 million changed hands daily. The last trading day of the month was therefore 40 percent below the monthly average. A thin market moves more on the same order size, up as well as down, and that is the setting in which the first week of November begins.

The drop in turnover is not limited to SHIB. Dogecoin lost 19.8 percent in October and Bonk 22.3 percent, while Bitcoin came through the month down 8.4 percent. The meme coin segment has thus given up roughly twice as much as the largest cryptocurrency. One exception stands out: Pepe is up 11.8 percent over seven days, while SHIB lost 4.8 percent over the same period.

Twelve monthly closes at a glance: six down, five up

For this article we analysed the monthly closing prices of the past twelve months. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 31, 2026, based on daily closing prices from CoinGecko's public price API; twelve monthly values were checked.

Six of the eleven month-on-month comparisons are negative and five positive. The picture is therefore not a steady collapse but a sequence of setbacks and recoveries in which the setbacks were larger. June and October alone cost around 41 percent combined, while the three strong months from July to September brought back around 35 percent.

The twelve-month high dates from November 2, 2025, at $0.00001019, the low from July 17, 2026, at $0.00000411. Today's price is 54 percent below that high and 14 percent above that low. For putting any forecast in context, this is the most sober figure in the article: since July SHIB has been moving in a range whose lower end is still holding.

Why the starting point changes the number

Measured against the November 2025 monthly close, the loss is 45.2 percent; measured against November 1, 2025, it is 53.3 percent. The difference comes down to the reference date alone, because early November 2025 saw a brief recovery that was given back by the end of the month. Anyone calculating their own loss should therefore use the price on their purchase date, not a monthly figure from a table.

What has changed since yesterday's Pepe calculation

On October 30 we showed here that Pepe was turning over 14 times SHIB's volume. That gap has narrowed slightly within a day and now stands at 13.5 times: $517.0 million for Pepe against $38.3 million for SHIB. Mainly one side has changed, since SHIB is trading more thinly today than yesterday.

SHIB's lead in market capitalisation has shrunk further. $2.758 billion compares with $2.105 billion for Pepe, leaving a gap of $653 million. A week ago Pepe was almost 12 percent lower, while SHIB was just under 5 percent higher than today. If this pace continues, the lead would mathematically be gone within a few weeks. Whether it continues is open, and no one should mistake extrapolating a trend for a forecast.

The price itself has barely moved since October 30. Back then the daily low was $0.00000448; today it is $0.00000467. The $0.0000045 level, which was breached on Thursday, has held again since. That is the one real change on the chart, and it is a small one.

On November 1, the one-year period is complete for 2025 buyers

The holding period is the time between buying and selling a coin held as a private asset. If more than one year lies between the two, the gain remains tax-free under German law. This rule still applies unchanged, even though its abolition has been under discussion for weeks.

For SHIB this means in practice: anyone who bought on November 1, 2025, can sell tax-free from November 2, 2026. The cut-off is counted to the day, not the month, and applies to each purchase. Anyone who bought on several days in November 2025 has several deadlines, and the tax authorities count them in the order of acquisition, i.e. first in, first out.

The difference between holdings on an exchange and self-custody matters. An exchange usually provides a transaction file showing the purchase date and price. Anyone who has moved their SHIB to their own wallet has to document deposits and withdrawals themselves, because the blockchain shows the transfer but no acquisition price in euros.

What a staking deposit changes about the deadline

Anyone who has put SHIB to work on Shibarium or with a provider to earn interest should record the inflow of rewards separately. Each unit received has its own date of receipt and therefore its own one-year period, and the reward itself has to be valued for tax at the time it is received. This is where clean records are worth more than any opinion on the price.

After twelve months the loss no longer counts either

This is where the logic flips, and many overlook it. A sale after more than one year is no longer relevant for tax. That applies to a gain, and it applies just as much to a loss. Anyone selling SHIB bought in November 2025 on November 2, 2026, or later at a 53 percent loss can no longer offset that loss against gains from other private disposals.

Within the one-year period the picture is different. A loss from a sale within twelve months is a loss from a private disposal and can be offset against gains of the same kind, for example a gain from selling Bitcoin in the same year. So anyone who has already realised gains within the one-year period in 2026 and is at the same time sitting on a losing SHIB position has a window that closes when the deadline expires.

This is not a recommendation to sell. It is a question of timing, and it can be answered in a few minutes: look up the purchase date, check the one-year period, set it against open gains from the same year. If you use software for this, the comparison of crypto tax tools lists the programs that evaluate exchange files in this order. With larger holdings or several exchanges, going to a tax adviser is the quicker route, because assessing an individual case is not a simple calculation.

The draft bill of September 30 and December 31

Since September 30, 2026, the Federal Ministry of Finance has had a draft bill that would move crypto assets from private disposals into investment income and scrap the one-year period for new purchases. The federal cabinet did not adopt the draft on October 14, 2026; it is still being negotiated between ministries, and there is no new date for it. We keep the full status, including dates, up to date in our overview of the crypto holding period.

December 31, 2026, appears in the draft as the date that would separate existing holdings from new ones. Without a cabinet decision and without approval by the Bundestag and Bundesrat, that date has no legal force. Nothing in the draft changes the 2026 tax return, and nothing changes the deadline for SHIB buyers from November 2025 either.

In practice this means: the legal position under which coins can be sold tax-free on November 2 is the one in force today. A later law may treat new purchases differently, but retroactively cancelling a one-year period that has already expired would be a far more serious intervention. Anyone waiting for lawmakers before checking their own deadline is waiting for a date that does not exist.

These levels are backed by the data

For the coming days, three values can be documented and recalculated. To the downside, the July 17 low at $0.00000411 is the lowest point of the past twelve months, 12 percent below today's price. Above that lies today's daily low at $0.00000467, which offers hardly any cushion in thin weekend trading.

To the upside, the September close at $0.00000575 is the first level with a rationale, because that is where the last positive month ended before October gave up 18.7 percent. There are 23 percent between today's price and that value. The $0.0000050 mark, around which SHIB was still fighting at the end of October, is 6.8 percent above the current level and is the nearer hurdle.

SHIB is 94.6 percent short of its all-time high of $0.00008616. This number belongs in every SHIB forecast because it makes the scale clear: a return there would mean a twentyfold rise with a circulating supply of 589.2 trillion tokens. Anyone counting on such a target is counting on a market capitalisation that no meme coin carries today.

Our view: right now the deadline weighs more than the chart level

In the editorial team's view, the most important decision for SHIB holders in Germany this week is not a price decision. Three documented points support this: the 53.3 percent loss since November 1, 2025, the one-year period for exactly those purchases expiring on November 2, and the fact that a loss is lost for tax purposes once the deadline has passed. Anyone who realised taxable gains within the one-year period in 2026 loses an offsetting option when the deadline expires, and no later price move will bring it back.

Equally documented points argue the other way. SHIB is holding 14 percent above its July low, September brought a 16.1 percent gain, and three of the past five months closed higher. Anyone selling to lock in a loss gives up a position that has twice recovered from similar levels this year. And the tax question depends on the individual case, meaning gains already realised, the exemption threshold and the holding period of each individual purchase.

Our stance therefore stays with the order of steps: check the deadline first, then decide on the price. This is expressly neither a buy nor a sell recommendation, and assessing the individual case belongs in the hands of a tax adviser.

SHIB holding period: from November 2, losses no longer count

Three steps you can work through today, and which hold regardless of where the price heads in November.

1. Gather your purchase dates. Download your exchange's transaction file and sort your SHIB purchases by date. The comparison of crypto tax tools shows which programs evaluate this in order of acquisition.
2. Set the year's realised gains alongside. A loss within the deadline can only be offset against gains from private disposals in the same year. The comparison of crypto exchanges shows on which platforms such gains arise and which of them provide a German tax report.
3. Document your self-custody. For holdings in your own wallet, you keep the date received, the amount and the euro price yourself. Which devices offer an export function for these records is covered in the hardware wallet comparison.

(As of October 31, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)