Shiba Inu forecast: 13.5 percent down, what matters before the monthly close

The documented part: Shiba Inu is trading at $0.00000497 on Wednesday evening, and therefore 13.5 percent lower than on October 1. Our assessment follows further down: this week's decisive date for SHIB is not a price target but Friday's monthly close, because it determines whether October enters the record with a closing price below or above $0.0000050.

The position in numbers: Tuesday's daily close was $0.00000490, and the price at Kraken on Wednesday at around 8.45 pm UTC was $0.00000497. In between came a session high of $0.00000504 and a session low of $0.00000489. The level in question is therefore less than one percent away, and three trading days remain until it counts.

October stands at 13.5 percent down

October began for SHIB at $0.00000575. By Wednesday evening that had become $0.00000497, a fall of 13.5 percent. That is exactly the amount September had added: back then it went from $0.00000506 up to $0.00000575, a gain of 13.5 percent. So far October is handing back September's gain to the decimal place.

Two levels frame the month. The October high sits at $0.00000604 and dates from the first days of the month, the October low at $0.00000476 from October 24. The price is 17.7 percent away from the high of the past 30 days. That span of around 27 percent between high and low is no exception for SHIB, but it shows how much lies between the two ends within a single month.

For comparison, the meme coin alongside: Dogecoin is trading at $0.0799 on Wednesday evening. Both values hang on the same appetite for risk, and both have given ground in October. Sentiment in the broader market is not at panic: the fear and greed index stood at 51 on October 28, in neutral territory, and at 48 the day before.

Friday's monthly close weighs more than a daily close

A monthly close is the last traded price of the last day of the month, for SHIB the reading on October 31 at 11.59 pm UTC. What sets it apart from a daily close is not its level but its durability: it is not revised afterwards and remains the one point from which monthly statistics, annual overviews and the monthly candles in long-term charts take their bearing.

The mechanism behind it is unspectacular and is therefore rarely explained. A monthly candle condenses everything that happened over four weeks into four values: open, high, low and close. Anyone looking at SHIB over years sees exactly those candles and not the 744 hours behind them. A closing price of $0.00000501 and one of $0.00000499 are 0.4 percent apart; in the monthly overview they separate the statement "above half a hundred-thousandth of a dollar" from its opposite.

The date has no effect on the price in its own right. It is a reference point, not a force. What it changes is the number that readers, statistics and automated trading systems will read as the October value in the months to come.

This year's monthly closes show where the level sits

Kraken's own daily closing prices produce a clear sequence for 2026. June closed at $0.00000420, July at $0.00000471, August at $0.00000507 and September at $0.00000575. August was therefore the first month since May to end above $0.0000050 again, and September built on it.

If October closes below that level, the run ends after two months, and it would be the first monthly close below $0.0000050 since July. At $0.00000497, 0.5 percent is missing on the upside for that. Seven daily closes in a row have already come in below the level; the last one above it was October 21 at $0.00000515.

Seven daily closes below the $0.0000050 level

That the level is a round number does not make it more important than any other figure. It becomes important because the price has been clinging to it for a week. On October 22 the closing price fell below it for the first time, and since then every daily close has sat between $0.00000484 and $0.00000497. The price is therefore moving sideways in a span of barely three percent, and doing so directly below a number that many buy and sell orders carry as a round value.

Our article of October 27 looked at the same price from a different distance: by that calculation SHIB is 94 percent short of its all-time high from October 2021, as set out in Tuesday's five-year review. Since then something has moved at the short end. The price has risen from $0.00000490 to $0.00000497, a gain of 1.5 percent, and on Wednesday the session high touched $0.0000050 from below for the first time in four days. It did not hold into the evening.

The 100-day line at $0.00000513 is the next resistance

All three common moving averages sit above the price, and they sit unusually close together. The average of the last 100 daily closes stands at $0.00000513, that of the last 200 at $0.00000521 and that of the last 50 at $0.00000538. The price is therefore 3.1, 4.5 and 7.5 percent below them.

A moving average is nothing more than the mean of past closing prices, so over 100 days the mean of the last 100. It says nothing about the future, only where the price stands in relation to its own past. That the 50-day line sits above the 200-day line means this for SHIB: the more recent picture was friendlier than the longer one until recently, and October has just used up that lead.

In practical terms for the coming days: the first hurdle above the round level sits at $0.00000513, so 3.1 percent above the current reading. Only above that would October be more than a recovery inside a downward move.

The October low at $0.00000476 carries the downside

On the downside there are two reasoned levels. The first is the October low of October 24 at $0.00000476, 4.2 percent below the current price. The second is the July close at $0.00000471, which set off the turn upwards in the summer. The two sit so close together that they form a zone rather than two lines.

Below that a gap opens up. The next documented level is the June close at $0.00000420, so 15.5 percent lower. Between $0.00000471 and $0.00000420 SHIB has not ended a single month this year, so there is no monthly close there to serve as a bearing.

The futures market lacks leverage pressure

Alongside the chart, the futures side is worth a look, and it tells a different story from the price span. On OKX's SHIB perpetual the funding rate stood at 0.01 percent per eight-hour period on Wednesday evening. That is precisely the exchange's base rate, and the premium for long positions was even slightly negative at minus 0.0005.

A funding rate is the payment that holders of long and short positions make to each other every eight hours so that the futures price does not come loose from the spot price. When it sits at the base rate, neither side pays a premium for its direction. Add to that open positions: $6.71 million were open on the same contract, a small amount for a coin with a market value in the billions.

For the forecast that means a wave of liquidations in either direction is not built up on this exchange at present. If you trade with leverage yourself, the fees and liquidation rules of the providers are set out in our comparison of perp DEX platforms, and the arithmetic stays the same as ever: leverage of ten turns a 4.2 percent fall to the October low into a loss of 42 percent on the capital deployed.

Trading volume jumps to 4.3 times the previous day

Wednesday's most striking number sits in turnover, not in the price. At Kraken, 147.07 billion SHIB changed hands; on Tuesday it was 34.03 billion. That is 4.3 times as much and at the same time 1.4 times the average of the past 30 days.

A jump in turnover without a jump in price allows two readings, and both are supportable only as readings. Either buyers and sellers are meeting here in similar strength, in which case the span between $0.00000489 and $0.00000504 is contested. Or a large part of the turnover comes from short-term trading around the round level. Which of the two applies will only be shown by the closing price.

The editorial view: two scenarios until Friday

From the editorial standpoint, more speaks for an October close below $0.0000050 than against it. Three pieces of evidence support that: seven daily closes in a row below the level, a price below all three moving averages, and the next resistance at $0.00000513, which lies 3.1 percent away, while only 0.5 percent is missing to hold the round level itself. Against it speaks Wednesday's volume: 4.3 times the previous day's turnover shows the level is being defended, and with a funding rate at the base rate, the futures market lacks the pressure that usually tips such zones.

This is an assessment of the situation, not a recommendation. A monthly close below $0.0000050 changes nothing about the project behind the token; it changes the number in the statistics. And like any crypto asset, SHIB can fall to a total loss.

The one-year holding period continues to apply unchanged

For investors in Germany, more hangs on the month's end than a chart level, because the year's end is drawing closer. The one-year holding period for crypto assets still applies: the federal cabinet did not adopt the draft abolishing it on October 14, 2026, it is stuck in interdepartmental consultation, and the often-cited cut-off date of December 31, 2026 has no force of law to this day. The current state of play including dates is kept in our overview of the crypto holding period and its reform.

Two things follow from that in concrete terms. If you hold SHIB for longer than a year, you sell a gain tax free under current law, and a sale before the year is up turns a paper gain into a taxable one from a private disposal. If you sell at a loss within the year, you can only offset that loss against gains from other private disposals, not against salary or interest. Which purchase date belongs to which holding is set out in the exchange's statement, not in the portfolio value.

What makes sense now is therefore to gather the purchase dates of your own SHIB holdings before the year ends. With several purchases spread over months, the one-year date falls differently for each tranche, and that is precisely where most self-declarations to the tax office come undone.

Monthly close: below $0.0000050, the third winning month is gone

Three moves that can be dealt with by Friday:

1. Note the reference point. Record where SHIB closes on October 31 at 11.59 pm UTC and compare it with the August close of $0.00000507 and the July close of $0.00000471. If you are looking for an exchange with euro pairs and traceable fees for that, you will find one in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Sort out the purchase dates. Pull the purchase date and purchase price for each SHIB tranche from the exchange statement, so that at the turn of the year you know which holding meets the one-year period. The tools for it are set out in our comparison of crypto tax software.
3. Check the custody. If you want to hold SHIB beyond the one-year period, you need a place where the holding can sit it out. What a hardware wallet costs for that, and which models handle ERC-20 tokens such as SHIB, is set out in our comparison of hardware wallets.

(As of October 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)