Shiba Inu before Wednesday's Fed decision: what matters now

On Wednesday, October 28, the US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 7 p.m. German time, with the press conference following at 7:30 p.m. For Shiba Inu this is not a news event with a headline of its own, but the moment that settles how much risk the market will carry over the coming weeks. The meme coin stood at $0.00000486 on Monday afternoon, up 0.26 percent in 24 hours and down 4.03 percent on the week, according to CoinGecko data.

What matters about this date is not the rate itself. It is the question of how hard a coin reacts that, with $53.1 million in daily turnover, ranks among the quietly traded names in the top 40. This article works out how thin trading in SHIB really is next to Dogecoin and PEPE, why Shiba Inu is affected differently than Bitcoin by the fund outflows of recent days, and which two levels count between now and Wednesday.

What is actually decided at 7 p.m. on Wednesday

The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, is the Federal Reserve body that sets the policy rate. It meets eight times a year; the October meeting ends on October 28 with the announcement at 7 p.m. German time.

Expectations diverge, and that is part of the picture. Futures data from CME FedWatch, cited by Reuters, puts the probability of an unchanged policy rate in the 3.75 to 4.00 percent range at roughly 90 to 92 percent. An analysis dated October 20, by contrast, put around 45 percent on a hike after the inflation rate rose to 3.7 percent in September. The gap between those readings is wide, and it shows one thing above all: the next rate step is contested, and contested dates move prices more than clear ones.

So the risk does not sit in the decision itself but in the half hour after it, when Jerome Powell explains the decision. That half hour sets the direction the crypto market then follows for days.

Shiba Inu at $0.00000486: where the price sits before the decision

The figures as of Monday afternoon, October 26, from CoinGecko: SHIB trades at $0.00000486. The daily high was $0.00000490, the daily low $0.00000479. That makes the daily range 2.3 percent, a quiet reading for a meme coin.

Widen the frame and the picture changes. Over 30 days the coin is down 18.18 percent, over twelve months down 53.5 percent. Market value stands at $2.87 billion, which places SHIB 37th among all crypto assets. The all-time high of $0.00008616 is 94.35 percent away; reaching it again would take 17.7 times the current price.

One level has given way in recent days. Our October 21 analysis of exchange balances asked whether SHIB would hold the zone at $0.0000050. That zone no longer holds: the price sits about 2.8 percent below it and has not retaken it for several days. A support has turned into resistance, and that is the real difference from the position a week ago.

Why a rate decision moves a meme coin at all

The link runs through the price of money and only indirectly through Shiba Inu itself. If the policy rate rises or stays high, government bonds and overnight deposits pay a safe return. Every dollar sitting there competes with every dollar in an asset without a cash flow. Shiba Inu pays no interest, no dividend and no rent; its price is simply what the next buyer pays.

Tighter monetary policy therefore hits assets at the end of the risk chain hardest, and meme coins sit there. The reverse holds too: when the central bank signals falling rates, money flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum first, then into the large altcoins, and only last into coins like SHIB. That lag is why SHIB reacts later in upswings and earlier in setbacks.

How large the move turns out to be then depends on a second quantity that is rarely discussed.

Turnover of 1.85 percent: Shiba Inu trades thinner than Dogecoin and PEPE

Turnover sets daily volume against market value. It says what share of the total value actually changes hands in a day, and it is the most practical measure of a market's depth. We calculated it ourselves from Monday afternoon's CoinGecko data for the relevant names:

• Shiba Inu: $53.1 million in volume against $2.87 billion in market value, turnover 1.85 percent
• Dogecoin: $423.4 million against $12.12 billion, turnover 3.49 percent
• PEPE: $284.4 million against $1.83 billion, turnover 15.54 percent
• Ethereum: $9.58 billion against $282.9 billion, turnover 3.39 percent
• Bitcoin: $24.74 billion against $1.606 trillion, turnover 1.54 percent

The result is uncomfortable. Among these five, SHIB has the second-lowest turnover, just above Bitcoin. For Bitcoin a low turnover signals size and long-term holding, because funds, corporate balance sheets and billions in order-book depth sit behind it. For a meme coin with $2.87 billion in market value the same reading means something else: little on the other side.

PEPE, the smaller competitor, turns over more than five times its share in a single day. A seller there finds a buyer faster. In a thin book the same order moves the price further, and that is exactly what happens after central bank events, when many want the same direction at once.

No fund of its own for SHIB: what the $773 million in outflows means

In the two days before the Fed date, investors pulled roughly $773 million from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and long positions worth about $651 million were liquidated. Bitcoin traded at around $79,891 on Monday afternoon.

Here sits a difference many readers will not have seen put this way. Dogecoin now has an exchange-traded fund of its own: according to filings with the SEC, the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF has been slated for the Nasdaq under the ticker TDOG with effective registration since January 9, 2026. Nothing comparable exists for Shiba Inu. SHIB appears in the filings only as an eligible component of an actively managed multi-asset fund, the Price Active Crypto ETF from T. Rowe Price, which under its March 2026 application may hold five to fifteen crypto assets on a rotating basis.

That cuts two ways. The good side: when money leaves funds, no fund manager sells SHIB, because none has to hold any. The bad side: the same channel is missing in the other direction. Inflows that reach Bitcoin, and since January also Dogecoin, through funds have to come from individual buyers on exchanges in Shiba Inu's case. To see how that channel works in Germany, the routes are set out in our overview of crypto ETFs for German investors.

For Wednesday that means the fund outflow does not hit SHIB directly. What arrives is the sentiment it triggers. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 50 on October 26, which is neutral, after 54 the day before. That is not panic, but it is not confidence either.

The options expiry on October 30 and the $11.1 billion

Two days after the rate decision, on Friday, October 30, Bitcoin options with a notional value of around $11.1 billion expire on the Deribit derivatives exchange. An options expiry is the date on which those contracts end and the traders holding them as hedges unwind or roll their offsetting positions.

For Shiba Inu that is an indirect date, but not an irrelevant one. The hedging around a large expiry runs in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it ties up liquidity. Traders squaring their books in the large names on Thursday and Friday provide less capital as the other side in smaller names. In a book that already turns over only 1.85 percent of its value a day, that shows.

The week therefore has three stages: the decision on Wednesday, the digestion on Thursday and the expiry on Friday. Only after that does November begin with fresh monthly data.

Levels below and above: $0.00000479 and $0.0000050

Levels are not prophecy but points where measurable trading took place in the past. Three of them are grounded as of Monday afternoon:

Below, $0.00000479. That is the daily low. If the price drops under it after the rate decision, the next reference is the October low; the coin then moves in a band where no stable demand zone has formed in 2026.

Above, $0.0000050. This zone was support until last week and is now resistance. A daily close above it would be the first sign that the sellers of recent days are done. Until then, every move up is a move inside the downward step.

As a yardstick, the 2.3 percent daily range. To judge whether a move after the decision is unusual, compare it with that. A daily range of 5 or 8 percent on Wednesday evening is a real reaction; 2 to 3 percent is ordinary noise.

On the blockchain itself little has moved this week. The ShibTorch portal, through which SHIB tokens are taken out of circulation, is still stuck at 371 of the 1,000 BONE required, as we reported on October 25. The burn is therefore practically at a standstill, and the supply of 589.24 trillion tokens in circulation is not shrinking to any meaningful degree at present. No counterweight comes from the supply side ahead of this date.

Leverage and the liquidation price: the distance counts in percent, not decimals

A liquidation price is the price at which an exchange automatically closes a leveraged position because the margin no longer covers it. It appears in the position overview of your account, and it is the most important figure of this week for anyone working with leverage.

Three quantities belong on the table before Wednesday evening. First, the distance between the current price and the liquidation price, measured in percent and not in decimal places: at a price of $0.00000486, $0.0000002 sounds like nothing and is 4.1 percent. Second, the funding rate, the fee the long and short sides pay each other in perpetual contracts; it usually falls due every eight hours and eats into the margin when a position is held for long. Third, order size relative to the book: in a market with 1.85 percent turnover, a market order leads to a worse fill more readily than with Bitcoin, which is why a limit order is worth more here than in liquid names.

To compare the terms of different venues before changing a position, the fees and deposit protections are set out in our comparison of crypto exchanges. The differences in taker fees weigh most on days exactly like these, when many trade at once.

Tax in Germany: holding period and threshold on a sale before the decision

Anyone looking to take gains before Wednesday should know the tax side, because it often decides more than a few percent of price movement. In Germany the sale of crypto assets falls under private disposals pursuant to section 23 of the Income Tax Act.

Three points follow. Sell within a year of buying and the gain is taxable at your personal income tax rate. If the purchase is more than a year back, the gain is tax-free. For all taxable gains of a year together a threshold of 1,000 euros applies; exceed it by a single euro and the full amount is taxable, not just the part above it.

For SHIB holders the second figure is the interesting one. Anyone who bought before October 26, 2025 is out of the period and can decide independently of tax. Anyone who bought later is, after the twelve-month loss of 53.5 percent, very probably sitting on a loss, and losses from private disposals can only be set against gains from the same kind of transaction, not against wages or interest. We track how the legislature is working on the holding period in our status of the holding-period reform.

The purchase date appears in your exchange statement, not in the portfolio overview. Anyone who bought several times needs the individual lots, because the period runs per purchase.

Our view: the date is a risk, not an entry signal

From the editorial side, the picture argues for waiting this week rather than positioning, and the evidence sits above. The price has lost the zone at $0.0000050 and has not won it back. Supply is not shrinking, because the burn is stuck at 371 of 1,000 BONE. Turnover of 1.85 percent is the second-lowest in the comparison group, and a thin book amplifies every reaction to Wednesday's decision. There is also the $11.1 billion expiry on Friday, which ties up trading capital.

Against that stands the fact that futures markets price an unchanged rate at 90 to 92 percent, and an expected decision often moves little. The Fear and Greed Index is neutral at 50, so there is no panic waiting to discharge. And SHIB hangs on no fund flows that could drain away.

Our weighting: this week's upside is capped by the resistance at $0.0000050, the downside is not capped by the thin book. That asymmetry is the reason for the caution, not a view on the coin itself. How the medium-term picture develops will be decided by the inflows and the supply side of the coming weeks. None of this is a recommendation to invest; with crypto assets a total loss is possible.

How things continue after Wednesday

Three dates structure the days ahead. On Wednesday, October 28, the rate decision lands at 7 p.m., with the reasoning at 7:30 p.m. On Friday, October 30, Bitcoin options worth $11.1 billion expire. And on Thursday the turn of the month raises the question of whether October closes for SHIB with a loss of around 18 percent.

For the reading afterwards, what counts above all is whether turnover rises. If daily volume picks up clearly above $53 million, real demand is back. If it stays below, the move after the decision was only reshuffling.

Fed week and SHIB: order size counts until 7 p.m. Wednesday

Three steps to work through before the rate decision:

1. Run the numbers on your positions. For every open position, note the distance to the liquidation price in percent and the funding rate. For leveraged trading, the terms and liquidation rules of the venues are set out in our comparison of perp DEXs.
2. Settle the order type. Decide before the event whether you work with a limit, and at what price. In a book with 1.85 percent turnover, that is the decision that costs or saves you money on Wednesday evening, not the view on the price.
3. Dig out the purchase dates. Pull the individual lots from the exchange statement and see which are out of the one-year period. The tools in our comparison of crypto tax software help in putting that together.

(As of October 26, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)