One Billion XRP Unlocks on October 1: The Level That Decides

Update (November 1, 2026): The release went ahead as announced: at 00:00 UTC on October 1, according to the XRP Ledger, exactly one billion XRP came out of four escrows, split into 400, 300, 200 and 100 million. Just under twelve hours later Ripple placed 700 million of it into two new escrows that do not mature until May and June 2029; 300 million XRP remained outside the time lock. The levels in this article did not hold: on October 7 XRP closed at $1.421, below $1.464, on October 17 it closed at $1.293, below the $1.30 to $1.40 catch zone for the first time, and the monthly low came on October 30 at $1.203. At 04:36 UTC on November 1, XRP cost $1.25 (1.12 euros) according to CoinMarketCap, 17.9 percent less than 30 days earlier, and ranked fifth by market capitalisation. At 00:00 UTC that same day the next billion had already come out of escrow.

On October 1 the monthly time lock opened again at XRP, and this time the date met a price that had only just recovered from a setback. Up to one billion XRP could be released from escrow, worth as much as $1.55 billion at the price back then. The question for you as an investor is not whether the supply is coming, but how much of it actually reaches the market and which level still holds underneath.

On Tuesday afternoon, September 29, XRP traded at $1.518 and 1.339 euros, up around 1.5 percent within 24 hours. The day's range ran from $1.464 to $1.561. For comparison: Bitcoin stood at $83,163 over the same period, down 0.4 percent. XRP was therefore running against the broader market, and that is exactly what made Thursday's date interesting.

XRP price on September 29: $1.52 two days before the escrow release

In the days before, the price had tested the zone around $1.46 twice and bounced upward both times. On the upside, $1.561 capped it, the day's high. That range of roughly six percent was narrow for XRP; it showed that both sides were waiting for the same date.

The longer line looked considerably friendlier. In the third quarter XRP gained 48.1 percent according to it-boltwise (as of September 27), its strongest quarterly performance in four years. At the same time the price remained clearly below its all-time high. Anyone entering then was buying neither at the floor nor at the peak, but in the middle of a phase with a schedulable supply surge ahead.

What the numbers do not say

A price figure without a time stamp is worthless on a date like this. Every value in this section is from Tuesday afternoon, September 29. By Thursday morning they could shift considerably, and around a release in particular prices move in minutes, not in days. So commit levels to memory, not price figures.

Escrow explained simply: how the monthly release works at Ripple

An escrow on the XRP Ledger is a time lock in the protocol itself. In 2017 the company Ripple placed a large part of its XRP holdings into such contracts; each of them releases a set amount at a fixed point in time. The technical documentation of the XRP Ledger describes the mechanism: an escrow object holds the amount, a time stamp gives the earliest possible claim, and only a follow-up transaction actually takes the sum out.

Important for putting this in perspective: release is not sale. In recent years Ripple has regularly placed a large part of the released amount straight back into new escrows, often for months. What reaches the market is usually the smaller remainder, which flows into distribution agreements, institutional sales and operating costs.

Escrow, unlock, release: three words for the same thing

You will find all three terms side by side in coverage. Escrow is the contract, unlock is the expression for the deadline expiring, release is the equivalent describing the result. The same process is always meant: a quantity of XRP becomes technically available. Whether it is sold is another matter.

What came out of escrow on October 1 and what lands on the market

The reported upper limit was one billion XRP, and exactly that amount came out in four tranches at 00:00 UTC on October 1. Do the maths yourself, because the dollar figure hangs on the price: one billion XRP at $1.518 is roughly $1.52 billion. Had the price fallen to $1.40 by Thursday, it would have been $1.40 billion. The often quoted $1.55 billion assumed a price around $1.55, that is, the upper edge of the range back then. At the daily close on October 1, XRP cost $1.494 according to CoinMarketCap, so the billion was worth roughly $1.49 billion.

What matters is the share that really moves onto trading venues. Historically it has been well below half. In October, Ripple placed 700 million XRP into two new escrows the same day, maturing only in May and June 2029; 300 million XRP remained outside the time lock. So in the first 48 hours after the release, watch not the escrow but the inflows to exchange addresses. If they rise sharply, real selling pressure is coming. If they stay flat, the date was a booking without market effect.

ETF inflows against new supply: the counter-calculation in dollars

On the other side of the scales sit the spot ETFs. Over six consecutive months net funds added up to roughly $1.77 billion according to the figures linked above; on September 25 alone $22.65 million flowed in. That is not day-to-day business but a steady stream.

Put the numbers side by side and you see the real balance of forces. A one-off supply surge of theoretically $1.5 billion meets demand that has absorbed $1.77 billion over half a year. If only a fraction of the release actually goes into selling, current ETF demand is arithmetically enough to absorb it over a few weeks. If the full amount comes, it is not.

Why October brings additional pressure

Ahead of the date, the market was pricing in a possible interest rate move by the US Federal Reserve on October 28. On that day the Fed kept its policy rate at 3.75 to 4 percent; two of the twelve voting members would have preferred an increase of 0.25 percentage points. XRP pays no running yield. Against a short-dated US government bond, the coin competes without an interest argument, and in phases of rising rate expectations yield-free assets usually give way first. The escrow date therefore did not land in a neutral environment.

Support at $1.46, resistance at $1.56: the range of September 29

Three zones were relevant for the days around the release, and each had a justification in the price action, not in gut feeling.

• $1.464: the day's low. The price had turned here twice recently. A daily close below it takes the ground out from under the recovery.
• $1.561: the day's high and therefore the next hurdle. Above it, room opens up into the area the price held before the latest setback.
• $1.30 to $1.40: the zone several market observers name as the next catch area should $1.46 fail to hold. That is roughly eight to fourteen percent below the price back then.

None of the three zones held in October: on October 7 XRP closed at $1.421, below $1.464, on October 8 the price reached the catch zone with a daily low of $1.322, and on October 17 it closed below it for the first time at $1.293. The monthly low came on October 30 at $1.203 (CoinMarketCap, daily candles in UTC).

These levels are not a forecast but measuring points. With them you make your decision in advance instead of improvising in the moment of the move.

Bull case and bear case for October, each attributed

Where expectations are contested, both sides belong side by side, and each statement belongs to whoever made it. The friendly case rests on the observation that institutional and large private holders were adding rather than trimming at the end of September: analyses from the German-language market environment point to roughly 470 million tokens bought, $75.59 million in ETF inflows in one week and roughly 580 million XRP withdrawn from trading venues. Anyone sharing that view reads the escrow date as already priced in.

The cautious case starts at exactly that point: the price reaction to these strong inflows was weak. When demand on that scale does not carry the price, it points to sellers giving up stock in the background. Add supply out of escrow on top, and the zone around $1.30 to $1.40 is reached faster than the weekly charts suggest. Both readings rested on the same data and reached different conclusions. October played out the way the cautious case described, albeit in a weak overall market: Bitcoin also gave up around ten percent in the 30 days to November 1.

Buying XRP in Europe: buying route, MiCAR licence and fees

Since the European MiCAR regulation took hold, trading venues need their own authorisation as a crypto service provider to serve clients in the EU. The difference is practical, not theoretical: an authorised provider is subject to supervision, must segregate client funds and must maintain complaint channels. Before buying, check whether your trading venue actually holds the authorisation; the transition periods under Article 143 MiCAR ran out across the EU on July 1, 2026 at the latest. An overview of vetted providers is in the comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.

On costs, two items are worth a look that are often overlooked. The spread is the gap between buying and selling price and applies on every trade, even where the fee is advertised at zero percent. The withdrawal fee in euros bites on the way out. Together the two quickly cost more on small amounts than the trading fee itself; the crypto exchange comparison sets the models side by side.

Holding period and the tax office: October 1 as a cut-off date for your tax file

For private investors in Germany, XRP counts as another asset under section 23 of the Income Tax Act. From that follows the rule that makes this date tax-relevant for you: if you sell at a gain within one year of buying, that gain is taxable. If more than a year lies between purchase and sale, it stays tax-free. On top comes the exemption limit of 1,000 euros per calendar year for private disposal transactions in total; if it is exceeded, the entire gain is taxable, not just the part above it.

In concrete terms: anyone who bought on September 29 because they expected a recovery after the unlock has September 29, 2027 in the calendar as their cut-off date, and anyone buying on November 1 has November 1, 2027. Anyone holding stock from autumn 2025, by contrast, should check the purchase date of each individual tranche before selling. With several purchases, the order of acquisition applies in practice, and a sale a few days before the deadline expires costs real money. A tax tool that keeps your tranches in order takes that arithmetic off your hands.

What you need in your tax file

For every position, the purchase date, quantity, purchase price in euros and fees belong in the schedule, along with the same details for the sale. Keep the exchange's transaction records as well. If a trading venue shuts down or you lose access, retroactive exports are often no longer possible, and the burden of proof sits with you.

Custody after the release: exchange, hardware wallet or ETP

Around a supply date, trading volumes rise, and with them the number of login attempts on other people's accounts. If you intend to hold your XRP for longer anyway, they do not belong on a trading venue. A hardware wallet keeps the private key off the computer; stolen credentials are then of little use to an attacker. The device classes differ above all in how the key is generated and secured during setup.

An exchange-traded product on XRP is the third route. It runs through your existing securities account, you need no wallet, and the accounting is simpler for the tax office. The price for that is ongoing management fees and the fact that you own no coins but a claim against the issuer. For the tax-free holding period after one year, moreover, the same rule does not automatically apply to ETPs as to directly held coins; that depends on the product's structure and belongs settled before you buy.

Leverage and liquidation: what to watch on XRP derivatives around the date

Narrow trading ranges ahead of a known date are the classic breeding ground for liquidation cascades. If your liquidation price sat inside the range of $1.46 to $1.56 before October 1, an ordinary daily move was enough to close the position. Work out the distance before the date, not after: at five times leverage, roughly 20 percent of adverse movement is enough, at ten times roughly 10 percent, in each case before fees and funding costs.

The funding rate on perpetual contracts is the second item. This rate falls due several times a day and can tighten considerably in phases of one-sided positioning. A position that is right on the substance can fail over several days on this rate alone. Anyone wanting to trade the unlock should therefore set leverage on the low side and keep the period short.

XRP escrow release: what to take away

1. Set levels instead of price figures. Before October 1 these were $1.46 on the downside and $1.56 on the upside, plus $1.30 to $1.40 as a second catch zone; in October XRP left all three on the downside. Set your own levels for the next release on December 1 and decide beforehand what you will do at which reading. If you need a trading venue for that first, compare the terms beforehand in the crypto exchange comparison rather than under time pressure.
2. Check the purchase dates of your holdings. Go through every tranche and see which already meets the one-year period under section 23 and which does not. A sale shortly before expiry is the most expensive mistake this date can trigger; a tax tool carries the tranches along automatically.
3. Settle custody before volumes rise. Holdings you intend to keep belong off the exchange and on a device of your own. Find the right one in the hardware wallet comparison and set it up calmly, not on the day of the release.

(As of September 29, 2026, updated on November 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)