XRP price prediction: a 13-week inflow streak breaks as $2.47 million leaves a single fund: what you can do now

XRP trades at $1.30 on Tuesday morning, the equivalent of 1.15 euros. Over the past 24 hours the range ran from $1.29 to $1.32, the daily loss stands at 1.4 percent and the weekly loss at 5.9 percent. Market capitalisation: $81.77 billion, which puts XRP in fifth place. More interesting than the price level this week, though, is where the money comes from and where it goes. How far the price can reach over a horizon of months is set out in our XRP price prediction.

Because among the exchange-traded funds, a streak that had held since mid-July has broken.

The XRP ETFs gave up money on Friday for the first time in 13 weeks

The US-approved spot ETFs on XRP had booked net inflows for 13 consecutive weeks. That streak ended on Friday. According to Farside Investors data picked up by Börse Express on October 18, $2.47 million flowed out that day. In the week before, up to October 9, the same funds had still gathered $11.31 million. Data provider SoSoValue reports a net outflow of around $1.84 million for the full trading week from October 12 to 16. The two figures do not contradict each other: Friday was the day with the outflow, and on the remaining days little was added on balance.

Cumulatively since the funds launched, around $1.8 billion in net inflows remains on the books. A single red week does not change that. Börse Express frames it this way: "A single interrupted period does not yet confirm a long-term change of direction." There is nothing to add, except the question of how large the outflow actually is in proportion.

$2.47 million against $1.28 billion in daily turnover: the outflow is tiny

Trading turnover in XRP stood at $1.278 billion over 24 hours on Tuesday morning. Friday's outflow of $2.47 million therefore amounts to 0.19 percent of a single trading day. Measured against the market capitalisation of $81.77 billion, it is 0.003 percent. Even the cumulative $1.8 billion that has flowed into the funds since launch accounts for only 2.2 percent of market capitalisation. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 20, 2026, based on XRP market data and metrics read live from the XRP Ledger.

Anyone reading that the ETFs pushed the price down is mistaking sequence for cause. An outflow of this size does not move the price of XRP. It says something about the mood among buyers who do not buy directly on an exchange but through a securities account. And that is precisely the group which bought reliably for 13 weeks.

How an ETF outflow reaches the price of XRP

The mechanism is worth two sentences, because it is often told wrongly. When an investor returns units of a spot ETF, the fund dissolves XRP in the background and sells it on the market through a trading partner. Conversely, the fund buys XRP when new units are created. The fund is therefore a conduit, not a bet: what the investor hands back in the securities account ends up as a sell order in the order book.

What matters here is the relationship to market depth. If $200 million flowed out in a day, it would meet an order book turning over $1.28 billion that day. The selling pressure would then be visible. At $2.47 million it disappears into half an hour of noise. For holders, that means the direction of ETF flows serves as a sentiment gauge, while the size of a single day does not serve as an explanation for the price.

One fund carries the entire outflow: Canary Capital's XRPC

The distribution is the remarkable part. The complete daily outflow fell on one fund, Canary Capital's XRPC. The other providers reported no net movement for that day, neither inflow nor outflow. That shifts the reading considerably: this was not a broad wave of selling across all funds, but a reallocation or a sale in a single product.

Canary Capital brought the first US spot ETF on XRP to market and is therefore also the provider with the longest history and the oldest unit holdings. Where units have been held longest, they are sold first when someone wants to take profits or reallocate. An outflow at that provider of all places is thus less surprising than an outflow at a young fund.

The price on Tuesday morning: $1.30 in a range from $1.29 to $1.32

On Tuesday morning XRP is quoted at $1.30. The daily low was $1.29 and the daily high $1.32, which in euros corresponds to a range from 1.15 to 1.17 euros. The daily range of three cents is narrow, so the market has not found a direction but is waiting.

From the all-time high of $3.65, reached on July 17, 2025, the price sits 64.5 percent away. Over 14 days a loss of 13.5 percent is on the books, over 30 days only 6.2 percent. The decline has therefore concentrated in the last two weeks rather than spreading across the month.

From $1.50 on October 6 to $1.30: down 13.5 percent in two weeks

On October 19 our analysis of on-chain volume showed that $49.66 billion moved across the XRP Ledger in a single day, while exchange turnover stood at $1.47 billion. Two things have changed since: exchange turnover has fallen to $1.278 billion, down a good 13 percent, and the price has eased from around $1.32 then to $1.30. The $1.29 level, which served as Monday's daily low, has held so far.

October 6 marks the starting point of the move. XRP stood at $1.50 that day. It has become $1.30 since, a decline of 13.3 percent in two weeks. That period contained five institutional announcements from Ripple, Evernorth's Nasdaq listing and the opening of Ripple Prime. The price responded to none of them with a lasting rise. That is the real finding of the two weeks, not Friday's outflow.

Analysis service The Crypto Basic points out that XRP has slipped below the 200-week moving average in the process. That is a technical classification and not a law of nature, but it describes why many market participants are watching the area around $1.29 so closely right now.

Our assessment: the broken streak weighs more than the sum

In the editorial team's view, the $2.47 million figure is meaningless for the price, while the broken streak is not. The evidence is above: 13 weeks of uninterrupted inflows, $11.31 million as recently as the previous week, then an outflow. Add to that the price path, which did not react to five institutional announcements between October 6 and 15. Taken together, that suggests demand through securities accounts is easing while the news flow stays good.

Against that stands the statistics of the distribution: a single fund carried the entire outflow, the others stood still. A week at minus $1.84 million after 13 weeks of plus is not a break in trend but a data point. Reading an exit by institutional investors into it overstretches the number. Our reading: the air has grown thinner, the wind has not yet turned. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and a total loss remains possible with any crypto-asset.

XRP ETNs in Germany or XRP directly: the tax difference

This is where it becomes concrete, because as a rule you cannot buy the US funds in Germany. What sits in securities accounts here are exchange-traded notes on XRP, that is, ETNs. And they are treated differently from XRP you hold yourself.

Buy XRP directly on an exchange and sell after more than a year, and the gain is tax free for private individuals under the law as it stands. The basis is the holding period under section 23 of the Income Tax Act. Within the year your personal tax rate applies, and an exemption limit of 1,000 euros covers all private disposals together.

With an ETN on XRP it runs differently: there a flat withholding tax of 25 percent plus the solidarity surcharge applies, regardless of how long you have held. In return the saver's allowance of 1,000 euros applies, and the bank deducts the tax automatically. Which route is cheaper depends on your investment horizon. If you plan to hold longer than a year, the direct purchase is usually the better route for tax. The trading platform to match is in our overview of the best crypto exchanges, including the details on fees and EU authorisation under MiCA.

In both cases, check whether your provider holds a MiCA authorisation in the EU. Since the regulation took full effect, only authorised providers may offer crypto services to retail clients in Germany.

Self-custody on the XRP Ledger: a 1 XRP base reserve and the destination tag

If you transfer XRP from an exchange into your own wallet, there are two technical peculiarities that do not arise in the same way on other blockchains. We read both directly from the XRP Ledger on October 20, 2026, at a validated ledger of 107,780,391.

First, the base reserve: an account on the XRP Ledger must permanently hold 1 XRP, otherwise it does not exist. For every additional object, such as a trust line to another token, a further 0.2 XRP is required. That money is not lost, but neither is it available while the account exists. So never transfer the exact total balance; leave the reserve in place.

Second, the destination tag: exchanges manage the XRP of many customers on a single address and distinguish them by a string of digits, the destination tag. Send XRP to an exchange address without that tag and the money lands in the omnibus account and has to be allocated manually by support. That costs weeks, and in the bad case the amount. The base fee for a transaction is 0.00001 XRP, so speed is no reason to rush here. Which devices are suitable for self-custody is in our hardware wallet comparison.

The total of all XRP ever issued stands at 99.99 billion units according to the current ledger. Of those, 63.13 billion are in circulation, or 63.1 percent. The rest sits in Ripple's escrow accounts and in corporate holdings.

The levels above and below, and what they hang on

To the downside, $1.29 is the first level, because that was the daily low of the past 24 hours and, on The Crypto Basic's reading, the line of the 200-week moving average also runs there. Should the price fall below it, the next round marker is $1.25, the equivalent of around 1.11 euros.

To the upside the first hurdle sits at $1.32, the daily high. Above that, $1.40 would be the next target, the area in which XRP traded on October 9. Half the distance of the decline since October 6, the path from $1.30 back to $1.40, would be half of the 20 cents lost.

What carries these levels is not the chart but demand. Two quantities decide that over the coming days: whether ETF flows turn positive again from this week, and whether exchange turnover rises again from $1.278 billion. Falling turnover with a falling price means even small orders move the price: at $1.278 billion in turnover, $13 million is arithmetically enough to make up one percent of the daily volume.

XRP ETFs: $1.8 billion is in, the 13-week streak is gone

Three steps to work through after this week:

1. Settle your holding period. Check your purchase history for when you acquired your XRP. Anything bought before October 20, 2025 is tax free on a sale today after a year. For an overview across several exchanges, a tool from our comparison of crypto tax software and portfolio trackers helps.
2. Decide between an ETN and a direct purchase. If you are starting out and want to hold for longer than a year, the holding period argues for buying directly on an authorised exchange. The terms and the MiCA authorisation are in the overview of the best crypto exchanges.
3. Set custody up cleanly. Leave the base reserve of 1 XRP in the account and enter the destination tag with every deposit to an exchange. Which devices are up to the job is shown in the hardware wallet comparison.

(As of October 20, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)