XRP Price Prediction: 1 billion XRP leaves escrow on November 1, how to check the net amount

XRP trades at $1.31 on Saturday morning. The price has lost 2.7 percent over the past 24 hours, market capitalisation stands at $82.4 billion and that leaves XRP fifth among all cryptocurrencies (CoinGecko, as of October 17). The date that shapes the coming fortnight is not in the chart, however, but in the ledger: in the night of November 1, Ripple's next escrow contract for up to 1 billion XRP expires.

The headline is the same every time: a billion tokens pours into the market. The number that counts is a different one, and over the past twelve months it averaged 300 million. This article weighs the two against each other and shows how to read the actual net amount yourself before the month turns. Where the price can point over a horizon of months is set out in our XRP price prediction.

XRP at $1.31: where the price stands on Saturday morning

The trading range of the past 24 hours ran from $1.29 to $1.35. Across all exchanges, XRP worth around $1.25 billion changed hands in that period. 63.13 billion tokens are in circulation.

Two reference points from the daily data of the past two months put that in context. The highest level in that period was $1.66 on August 22. From there the price stands a good 21 percent lower today. The average of the past 20 daily closes is around $1.42, clearly above the current level. Both figures are calculated from CoinGecko's own daily data.

55 escrow contracts from 2017: how the monthly release works

An escrow in the XRP Ledger is a lock written into the protocol: a quantity of tokens is placed on a contract and stays unavailable until a set point in time, not even reachable by the owner. Ripple created 55 such contracts in December 2017, each for 1 billion XRP, each expiring on the first of a month. That is reported by Tokenpost, citing the ledger data on the November date.

The decisive part of the construction is the way back. Whatever Ripple does not use in a given month can be placed into new contracts at the end of it. The process therefore consists of two entries: the release at the start of the month and the renewed lock afterwards. Count only the first and you are counting a number that has looked the same every month for nine years and says nothing about the market.

Ripple itself reported 37,656,053,914 XRP in its own holdings as of June 30, 2026, of which 32.6 billion sat in escrow contracts. That disclosure is the last figure confirmed by the company; the ledger estimates circulating since then put the escrow balance between 31.4 and 31.7 billion XRP, depending on the survey date. The range stays a range here instead of being smoothed into a single value.

1 billion on November 1: what the ledger has earmarked for the month's turn

The next expiry is dated November 1, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, which is 1 a.m. German time in the night of November 1. Germany is already on winter time by then; the clocks change on October 25. The earmarked amount is up to 1 billion XRP. How much of it actually stays in circulation becomes clear only in the days that follow.

The October date shows the pattern in detail. The billion left escrow in four transfers of 400, 200, 300 and 100 million XRP. Within the month, 700 million of that went back into new contracts. 300 million tokens stayed out. What happened to those 300 million, whether they were sold, passed on to partners or merely rebooked, cannot be read from the ledger data alone, and nobody should claim otherwise.

Twelve releases, 8.4 billion returned: what stayed in circulation net

Across the twelve releases from November 2025 to October 2026, the picture adds up to one clear number. 12 billion XRP were released in that period. 8.4 billion went back into new contracts. That leaves 3.6 billion tokens outside on a net basis, an average of 300 million a month.

That is 70 percent which never reached the market. Little room is left for the expectation that the first of the month reliably brings a billion in fresh selling pressure. The net amount is no trifle either: 3.6 billion XRP equal 5.7 percent of today's circulating supply of 63.13 billion tokens, built up over a year.

$393 million against $1.25 billion in daily turnover

The net amount can be translated into dollars and set against trading. 300 million XRP are worth around $393 million at today's price of $1.31. Against that stands a trading volume of about $1.25 billion in a single day.

The entire monthly net release therefore amounts to just under a third of what is traded on an ordinary Saturday anyway, spread over 30 days. In pure arithmetic that is around $13 million a day, roughly 1 percent of daily turnover. An order of magnitude that can move a price when it meets a thin market, but not one that forces a direction.

To see at what fees and under whose supervision you can buy XRP yourself, the providers are listed among the best crypto exchanges. The fee per order weighs more heavily on small amounts than the monthly release does.

Friday's fund flows: $2.4734 million out, Canary the only loser

The second source of demand alongside the spot market is delivering little at present as well. US spot ETFs on XRP recorded a net outflow of $2.4734 million on Friday. The money left a single fund, the Canary XRP ETF under the ticker XRPC, which nevertheless carries cumulative net inflows of $484 million since launch. The figures come from SoSoValue and were compiled by PANews.

Net assets under management across all XRP spot ETFs stand at $1.471 billion, and cumulative net inflows since launch at $1.800 billion. Measured against market capitalisation, the funds hold 1.79 percent of the total XRP value.

Placed side by side, this weekend's two figures make for a quiet picture: on the supply side a net release of around $393 million a month, on the demand side a fund outflow of $2.5 million a day. Both flows are small against ongoing trading.

What has changed since Friday's Evernorth analysis

On Friday we looked at the treasury company Evernorth, listed on the Nasdaq since October 12 with 473 million XRP on its balance sheet. That can be read in our analysis of the Evernorth balance sheet and the flat price from October 16.

The price has given way since. At midday on Friday XRP stood at $1.34, today it is $1.31, a fall of a good 2 percent in 24 hours. Friday's low of $1.2827, named in that analysis as the lower edge, was not breached; the low of these 24 hours sits just above it at $1.29. The edge is holding its second test in a row.

In substance, the escrow date adds a supply question that played no part on Friday. The Evernorth balance sheet describes tokens bought that had already been withdrawn from the market. The monthly release describes tokens that could be fed into it. Both processes act on the same supply, but in opposite directions.

The levels: $1.29 below, the 20-day line at $1.42 above

On the downside the low of the past 24 hours at $1.29 is the first reference point, and Friday's low of $1.2827 sits directly beneath it. Together the two form a narrow zone in which buyers stepped in on two consecutive days. If it gives way, no catch line formed in recent trading exists until the area around $1.20.

On the upside the more interesting level is not the day's high at $1.35 but the average of the past 20 daily closes at around $1.42. The price last ran there on October 10 and 11, before falling below the line. A daily close above it would be the first signal that the move since the start of the week was more than a counter-move.

Both levels are observation points, not price targets. A price target presupposes an author who stands behind it, and for XRP over the coming fortnight there is none.

Holding period and tax allowance: the tax question before November 1

For investors in Germany the turn of the month has a side that has nothing to do with the ledger. For tax purposes XRP counts among other assets. A sale falls under private disposal transactions pursuant to section 23 of the German Income Tax Act.

Two figures follow from that, and anyone planning an order in the coming weeks should know both. The first is the one-year holding period: hold the tokens for longer than twelve months and the gain carries no income tax. The second is the allowance of 1,000 euros per calendar year, which applies to all private disposal transactions taken together. Exceed it and the entire gain is taxable, not merely the excess.

In concrete terms, for the days before November 1: if you hold tokens from the autumn of 2025, check the acquisition date of every single tranche before reacting to any move. A sale a few days before the twelve months are up costs the full personal tax rate, a sale a few days after costs nothing. Tools that record acquisition dates and sequence are set out in our comparison of crypto tax software.

The one-year holding period itself remains under political scrutiny. We keep track of where the reform debate stands on our page on the crypto holding period. This text does not replace tax advice; for your own situation your tax adviser remains responsible.

MiCA authorisation and the reserve requirement: the buying route in the XRP Ledger

Since the European regulation on markets in crypto-assets applies in full, providers addressing customers in the EU need authorisation as a crypto-asset service provider. For the buying route that means two things: behind an authorised provider stands a European supervisor with a complaints channel, and duties apply on the separation of client and own holdings.

On custody, the XRP Ledger adds a detail that many notice only on their first transfer. Every account in the ledger must hold a reserve that stays permanently tied up and cannot be sent. Move tokens from an exchange to an address of your own and you plan for that amount, or the first transfer fails on an account that is empty in arithmetic terms although it shows a balance.

The release on November 1 can be followed in the ledger itself. The escrow contracts are publicly visible, and every release and every renewed lock appears as its own entry with a timestamp. To know the net amount, do not wait for a headline: count the return entries in the days after the first of the month and subtract them from the billion. That is the calculation made in this article for twelve months.

Our assessment: the monthly release is not a billion in selling pressure

From the editorial team's point of view the escrow date is regularly told too large. The evidence sits in this text: of twelve billion XRP released, 8.4 billion went back into new contracts, 3.6 billion stayed out on a net basis, an average of 300 million tokens a month or around $393 million. Against daily turnover of $1.25 billion that is roughly 1 percent a day.

One point speaks against it, and it deserves to be taken seriously. The net amounts of the past twelve months are no promise for November. Ripple is under no obligation to put a particular share back, and in months with high funding needs the share can turn out smaller. The record of the past is documented, the intention for the next date is not. To know the figure, read it in the ledger after November 1 rather than estimating it beforehand.

XRP escrow: 300 million tokens decide, not the billion

Three steps follow from this for the fortnight until the month turns:

1. Establish the acquisition date of every tranche. For holdings from the autumn of 2025, a few days decide tax exemption after twelve months. Tools that keep acquisition dates and sequence in good order are set out in our comparison of crypto tax software.
2. Note the two levels. Below, the zone from $1.2827 to $1.29; above, the 20-day line at around $1.42. Only a daily close outside that range alters the starting position; everything in between is the move of the current week.
3. Count the net amount after November 1. What matters is the billion less the return entries into new contracts, not the headline on the first of the month. If you still need an exchange for that, the providers with their fees and supervision are listed in our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.

(As of October 17, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)