XRP price prediction: 133 million tokens leave the exchanges, and what is behind it

XRP is trading at $1.25 on Sunday morning. The price has barely moved in 24 hours, stands 4.5 percent lower on the week and closed October with a loss of around 18 percent. That leaves the token just under 66 percent below its record high of $3.65.

Two things are documented on this first day of the month, and they pull in opposite directions. The exchange wallets attributed to Ripple held 22.48 billion XRP on October 31, which is 133.0 million tokens less than a week earlier. At the same time, the release window opens today, from which Ripple may draw up to one billion XRP out of escrow. Our assessment follows further down: the headline about the billion describes an upper limit, not what actually reaches the market.

Where the price may point over a horizon of months is covered by our XRP price prediction. This piece deals with the supply side of the coming days, because this time it is unusually easy to measure.

The state of play on November 1

The daily range is tight: $1.24 at the low, $1.26 at the high, and a gain of 0.42 percent against the previous day in between. That tightness is no story in itself. It only becomes interesting in relation to what is happening on the supply side.

October was one of the weaker months of the year for XRP. A loss of around 18 percent in 30 days means an investor who bought at $1.53 in early October is sitting on a paper loss of a good sixth today. Among the large caps that puts XRP behind Bitcoin, which gave up around 10 percent over the same period, and roughly level with Ethereum at a good 17 percent.

Escrow, briefly explained: Ripple holds a large share of the total 100 billion XRP in so-called escrows, programmed locks on the XRP Ledger. These locks release tokens on fixed dates. The company can sell the released amounts, but it can also put them back into a new lock. It is precisely this second part that usually gets lost in the headlines.

What the exchange balances actually show

The number that received the least attention this week is the decline in exchange balances. According to the supply report from XRP Insights, the attributable exchange wallets held 22.48 billion XRP on October 31, after a drop of 133.0 million tokens within seven days.

This measurement carries an important limitation, and the report names it itself: only wallets that can be attributed to an exchange are counted. The actual balance is therefore higher, and the measured decline is a floor. That changes nothing about the direction. Tokens withdrawn from an exchange are no longer available for sale there in the short term.

The release window and the re-lock rate

The monthly release opens on November 1. Two escrow objects of 500 million XRP each are due to unlock, one billion tokens in total. According to the same supply report, 31.40 billion XRP sit in locks on the ledger, spread across 98 objects, which is 31.4 percent of the fixed total supply of 100 billion. A further 4.74 billion XRP sit in the company's operating wallets.

What happens afterwards is what counts. In October, according to a tally by Cointurk, citing Coinpaper, Ripple put around 700 million XRP of the released billion back into new locks. The locked reserve fell by a net 300 million tokens in October, not by a billion.

That figure is not yet available for November, and it cannot be forecast either. Anyone reading today that the billion will flood the market is describing the ceiling of the window rather than the amount that ends up in circulation.

A calculation that makes the ratio visible

A comparison with the demand side helps to place the orders of magnitude. The US spot ETFs on XRP held 1.20 billion tokens at the close of the week, with assets under management of $1.51 billion.

That produces a ratio the debate often misses. A full monthly release of one billion XRP equals around 83 percent of everything all US ETFs have gathered since they launched. The 300 million tokens that actually came out on a net basis in October still equal around a quarter of the entire ETF holding. Conversely, the ETFs hold only about 3.8 percent of what sits in the escrows.

These figures say nothing about where the price is heading. All they document is that the supply side carries the greater weight at XRP right now, and that a month with a low re-lock rate can move more than a good ETF week.

The ETF week: 3.4 million tokens net

In the week to October 30, the US products took in a net 3.4 million XRP, around $4.0 million. The weekly figure hides how uneven the individual days were.

• Monday, October 26: 2.7 million XRP outflow, around $3.6 million
• Tuesday, October 27: 434,000 XRP outflow
• Wednesday, October 28: 174,000 XRP inflow
• Thursday, October 29: 6.4 million XRP inflow, around $8.0 million
• Friday, October 30: 50,000 XRP outflow

A single strong Thursday therefore carries the whole week. Without it the balance would be clearly negative. Anyone reading ETF demand as a support is relying on one day, not on a trend.

What has changed since October 30

Our XRP assessment from October 30 put the inflow of $8.4 million at the centre, together with the question of whether it was enough for a recovery. Two days later that can be answered.

The price stood at $1.25 at the close of the week and stands at $1.25 today. The Thursday inflow therefore carried no upward move; at best it cushioned the decline. The week closed 3.8 percent lower than the one before. What has been added since is the exchange balance figure, and the knowledge that October ended with a re-lock rate of around 70 percent.

Levels below and above

The lower boundary of the past trading days sits at $1.24, the daily low. Below that, the area around $1.20 opens up, a round level with no particular technical substance where stops tend to sit.

To the upside, the level at $1.30 is the first test, and not an arbitrary choice: the price slipped below this threshold on October 27 and has not reclaimed it since. In our piece from October 28 it was named as the decision level at $1.29. The distance has widened since then and has turned the level from below into resistance.

Above that, the next notable zone only begins at around $1.45, the area where XRP traded in mid-October. A move back there would equal a gain of around 16 percent.

Our assessment

From the editorial team's point of view, the supply side at XRP is currently more calculable than the demand side, and in the short term that argues for a floor forming rather than for a further slide. Three documented points support it: exchange balances fell by 133 million tokens in the week to October 31 instead of rising. The re-lock rate stood at around 70 percent in October. And the ETFs drew in tokens on a net basis in the same week, even if only 3.4 million.

The case against is just as clear. The November re-lock rate is unknown and may also be zero, which would make an additional billion tokens available. The ETF week hung on a single day. And a monthly loss of 18 percent alongside a 66 percent gap to the record high shows that the medium-term direction still points down. We draw no buy or sell recommendation from this, but one metric to watch: how much Ripple re-locks in the coming days is publicly traceable on the ledger and therefore visible earlier than any price reaction.

What matters for investors in Germany

For German holders, the question of whether to sell or buy more at these prices carries more than the price trend. Gains from the sale of crypto assets count as private disposals under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. After a holding period of more than one year a gain remains tax free; below that the personal income tax rate applies, and an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros a year is in force. Exemption threshold means that once it is exceeded, the entire gain becomes taxable, not just the part above it.

In the current situation that means, concretely: anyone holding XRP at a loss and thinking about realising it before the year end can offset losses from private disposals only against gains from the same income category, in the same year or through the loss carry-forward. Anyone sitting on a gain who is approaching the one-year mark may give away the tax exemption by selling shortly before it. We keep track of the political debate around this deadline at crypto holding period: reform and status.

Two practical points come on top. First, record keeping: anyone trading across several exchanges and wallets needs complete documentation of every acquisition for the one-year deadline, with the date and acquisition price for each partial position. Second, the trading venue: anyone holding XRP under MiCA with a provider licensed in the EU has an easier time producing evidence than with a platform that has no European licence. Which providers that applies to is set out in our crypto exchange comparison.

XRP at $1.25: with no new demand, supply decides

The situation can be summed up in three steps, each with a figure that can be checked.

1. Watch supply instead of reading headlines. The release of up to one billion XRP is an upper limit. What counts is how much Ripple re-locks, and in October that was around 70 percent. The movements are publicly visible on the ledger.
2. Measure demand across several days. The ETF week ended with a net 3.4 million XRP, carried by a single Thursday. A weekly figure says more than a daily one, and a monthly figure more than a week. Anyone who wants to buy the products themselves will find those available in Germany at buying crypto ETFs in Germany.
3. Settle the tax deadlines before the order. The one-year deadline under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act and the 1,000 euro exemption threshold help decide whether a sale at $1.25 makes sense. The matching tools are in our crypto tax tool comparison.

(As of November 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)