XRP price prediction: sellers push XRP back to $1, the level that decides

XRP is back at the $1 mark. At 4:50 p.m. CET on Thursday afternoon, the token costs $1.02 according to CoinGecko, roughly €0.92. That is 4.6 percent less than 24 hours ago and a good 20 percent less than a week ago. The daily low and the current price coincide, and no rebound had materialised by the afternoon.

What the data shows: since September 23, aggressive sell orders have clearly outweighed buy orders for XRP on both the spot and the futures market. Our assessment follows further below. The $1 mark is the low of the year from August, and as long as the selling surplus keeps growing, it is not a safe floor. Our XRP price prediction sets out where the price could head over a horizon of months.

XRP price at $1.02: a 20 percent loss in seven days

The decline has stretched across the whole week. According to CoinGecko, the daily price was still $1.11 on Monday, $1.10 on Tuesday and $1.06 on Wednesday. On Thursday XRP then slid from a daily high of $1.08 to $1.02. Over 30 days the loss is just under 26 percent, over one year almost 58 percent.

Market capitalisation, meaning the price multiplied by the number of tokens in circulation, stands at around $64.9 billion. That leaves the price 72 percent below the all-time high of $3.65 that XRP reached on July 17, 2025.

XRP is not falling alone. Bitcoin trades at around $71,300 in the afternoon, 3.4 percent below the previous day, and Ether has dropped 3.5 percent to just under $2,000. The discount on XRP is somewhat larger than on the two largest cryptocurrencies, yet of the same order of magnitude.

CVD data from CryptoQuant: a $2.5 billion selling surplus since September 23

A metric from exchange order books shows where the pressure comes from. Cumulative volume delta, or CVD, continuously tracks the difference between aggressive buy orders and aggressive sell orders. Aggressive here means the order is executed immediately at the best available price instead of waiting in the order book for a counterparty. A negative CVD means that more volume was sold this way than bought.

According to a brief analysis on the data platform CryptoQuant, reported by U.Today on Thursday, the estimated spot CVD across all major centralised exchanges has fallen from minus $400 million to minus $2.9 billion since September 23. The selling surplus on the spot market has therefore grown by around $2.5 billion over that period.

The timing matches the price action. On September 23, XRP's daily price stood at $1.57 according to CoinGecko, its highest value of the past three months. From there to Thursday afternoon's price, the token has lost around 35 percent. CVD explains no single trigger. It does show that one side is driving the decline. Sellers accept worse prices while buyers wait.

Futures market on Binance: perpetual CVD falls to minus $1.1 billion

The futures market looks similar. A perpetual future is a futures contract with no expiry date that traders use to bet on rising or falling prices, usually with leverage. For XRP perpetuals on Binance, the CryptoQuant analysis cited by U.Today puts CVD at around minus $1.1 billion, after minus $109 million at the start of the period. That is a change of about $991 million.

Spot and futures markets are therefore pointing in the same direction. On the futures market only contracts change hands, while on the spot market the tokens themselves do. If both markets show a deficit, holders are selling alongside leveraged traders. In its report, U.Today mentions concerns about a further decline to $0.90. That is an expectation. The data themselves do not yield such a calculation.

Since Thursday morning's XRP price prediction: the XRP price slips from $1.04 to $1.02

On Thursday morning, in our XRP price prediction on the lending protocol, we cited a price of around $1.04 and three levels for the coming days: $1.00, $1.10 and $1.21. Since then XRP has given up another two cents. The upper level of $1.10 was not reached again, and the daily high stayed at $1.08.

The CVD data arrived in the afternoon. They shift attention away from the vote on the lending protocol on the XRP Ledger, which is news for the coming months, to the question of who is currently driving volume in the market. For the price over the next few days, the second question matters more.

If you want to enter or add to a position now, you should know the fees of the trading venues. At prices around one dollar, the spread and trading fee make up a noticeable part of the entry cost. Our comparison of the best crypto exchanges gives an overview of providers, fees and authorisation.

The $1 mark in review: a low for the year of $0.99 in August

For this article we analysed XRP's daily prices over the past twelve months, a total of 366 values from CoinGecko. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 12, 2026.

The result: over the past twelve months, XRP's daily price was below one dollar on only two days, on August 15 at $0.9986 and on August 17 at $0.9927. The second value is the low for the year. The days before and after were just above it, between $1.00 and $1.03. The mark was tested over roughly ten days in August and held almost throughout.

After that, things moved fast. From August 17 to August 24, XRP's daily price rose from $0.99 to $1.52, a gain of 53 percent in one week. This shows two things. Below one dollar, buyers were ready in the summer, and a recovery in XRP can set in very abruptly. A repeat cannot be inferred from this, as the starting position is different today. In August the test followed a longer sideways phase. Now XRP is coming out of a 35 percent decline in seven weeks.

XRP levels: $0.99 below, $1.08 and $1.27 above

The daily data yield three levels that matter for the coming days.

• $0.99: the low for the year from August 17. A daily price below it would be the lowest in at least twelve months.
• $1.08: the high of the past 24 hours. Only above it would XRP have recovered Thursday's decline.
• $1.27: the exponential 50-day average. The 200-day average is even higher, at $1.34.

A moving average is the mean price over a fixed number of past days. In the exponential average, the most recent days carry more weight. When the price is below both lines and the shorter one is below the longer one, chart analysts speak of an intact downtrend. That is exactly how XRP looks on Thursday: a price of $1.02, the 50-day average at $1.27 and the 200-day average at $1.34.

Bitcoin and the Fear and Greed Index: the overall market drags XRP along

Sentiment in the overall market is no help. The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me, which condenses price volatility, trading volume and other data into a value between 0 and 100, stands at 28 on Thursday, in the fear zone. On Wednesday it was 29.

Bitcoin has lost 3.4 percent over the past 24 hours and, according to CoinGecko, is around 43 percent below its record from October 2025. Since the start of the week, Bitcoin, Ether and XRP have been falling in lockstep, with XRP swinging somewhat more. As long as Bitcoin does not find a floor, XRP lacks a tailwind from the overall market, even if new things are being built on the XRP Ledger itself.

Our assessment: the selling pressure on XRP has not yet broken

From the editorial team's point of view, more currently suggests that the $1 mark will be tested again than that it will mark a turnaround right away. The evidence: according to CryptoQuant, the spot CVD across the major exchanges has grown by $2.5 billion into negative territory since late September, the futures market on Binance points in the same direction, the price is below both moving averages, and the Fear and Greed Index stands at 28.

The experience from August argues against this. The mark held almost throughout at the time, and the subsequent recovery came within a week. A strongly negative CVD can also mean that much of the willingness to sell has already been worked off. In our view, a signal for a turnaround would be a close above $1.08 combined with a rising CVD. Neither is visible on Thursday. This assessment evaluates the situation and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Buying, holding or trading XRP with leverage: MiCA authorisation, custody and liquidation

Buying through a MiCA-authorised provider

Since the transitional period ended at the turn of 2025/2026, providers may only offer crypto assets with an authorisation under the European MiCA regulation. MiCA stands for Markets in Crypto-Assets and governs the authorisation, custody and disclosure obligations of crypto service providers in the EU. Whether a provider is authorised can be checked in the public register of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA.

Leverage and liquidation with perpetuals

If you trade XRP with leverage at prices around one dollar, you are betting on a narrow range. With ten times leverage, a move of around ten percent against the position is enough for the exchange to close it forcibly. This forced closure is called liquidation, and the posted collateral is then largely lost. A range of $0.90 to $1.08, as described by the data above, is already wider than ten percent.

Custody and staking

The XRP Ledger has no staking in the sense of Ethereum or Solana. Yield offers on XRP therefore do not come from the network itself but from providers' lending business, with the corresponding counterparty risk. If you want to hold XRP for longer, you can transfer the tokens to your own wallet. On the XRP Ledger, every account must keep a small minimum reserve in XRP that is not freely available.

XRP at the $1 mark: below $0.99 the support from August is missing

1. Check the provider: Buy and sell XRP only with a MiCA-authorised provider. You will find a selection in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.
2. Limit leverage: Before every leveraged trade, calculate the price at which liquidation kicks in and set it below the low for the year of $0.99, or do without leverage. Our perp DEX comparison shows the platforms' fees and conditions.
3. Secure your holdings: If you want to hold XRP for longer, keep the tokens in your own wallet. Our hardware wallet comparison lists suitable devices.

(As of November 12, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)