XRP price prediction: can record whale wallets offset $18 million in ETF outflows?

XRP briefly fell below the $1 mark overnight into Friday. The low was $0.9998, according to CoinGecko, and shortly before 6 a.m. CET on Friday morning the token cost $1.004, or around €0.91. At the same time, two data series point in opposite directions: the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP is growing, while the exchange-traded XRP funds in the US lost around $18 million over two trading days.

What is established: large holders have built up their positions over the past nine months, while institutional fund investors are withdrawing money at the same time. Our assessment follows further below: the growing number of large wallets supports the $1 mark, but so far it does not make up for the missing demand from the funds. Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our XRP price prediction.

XRP price on Friday morning: overnight low at $0.9998

The decline continued overnight. XRP lost 3.8 percent in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, with a daily high of $1.055. Over seven days the loss is 17.5 percent, over 30 days almost 27 percent. A year ago XRP still cost around two and a half times as much; the discount to November 2025 is almost 60 percent.

Market capitalisation, the price multiplied by the roughly 63.5 billion tokens in circulation, stands at about $63.7 billion. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is around $1.74 billion. XRP is now a good 72 percent below its all-time high of $3.65, reached on July 17, 2025.

The overall market sets the direction. Bitcoin fell to around $68,700 on Friday morning, down 6.6 percent in 24 hours, and ether trades at a little over $1,920, 6 percent lower. XRP therefore lost less overnight than the two largest cryptocurrencies. The Fear and Greed Index from Alternative.me stands at 20 points, in the extreme fear range, down from 28 points the day before.

Santiment data: 343,500 wallets hold at least 10,000 XRP

The first data series comes from the analytics firm Santiment, which tracks activity on public blockchains. A wallet here is an address on the XRP Ledger, not necessarily a person: one investor can run several addresses, and an exchange bundles many customers into a few. Santiment counts the addresses that hold at least 10,000 XRP. At today's price that is equivalent to around $10,000.

According to a Santiment analysis from November 11, reported on Thursday by CoinGabbar and CoinCentral, this group has grown to around 343,500 wallets. That is 16,815 addresses, or 5.15 percent, more than nine months ago. In May, Santiment had reported a record of 332,230 such wallets. The curve is therefore still rising, even though the price has lost around 30 percent over the past seven weeks.

Santiment itself reads this as a divergence between price and behaviour: larger holders are using lower prices to buy more rather than sell. At the same time, the firm sets out a clear condition. If the $1 level holds and the number of wallets keeps growing, Santiment sees room for a recovery to $1.10 to $1.15. If the level breaks and the growth reverses, Santiment expects another short sell-off instead.

XRP ETFs in the US: $18 million in outflows over two trading days

The second data series shows the opposite. The exchange-traded XRP funds in the US, which have held actual XRP since November 2025, lost around $10.4 million on November 9, according to SoSoValue data. Of that, $9.4 million came from the Bitwise fund and around $0.8 million from the Canary Capital fund. A further $7.6 million followed on November 10, of which $7.2 million came from the Grayscale fund.

Together that is around $18 million over two trading days. For November 11 and 12, industry services report no significant net flows, although the data providers' figures diverge here. Since their launch a year ago, the funds have taken in between $1.71 billion and $1.80 billion net, depending on the count. Measured against that, this week's outflows are small, but they come at a time when new buyers are missing.

How an ETF outflow affects the XRP price

An outflow from a spot ETF is more than an accounting entry. When an investor redeems fund shares, the fund has to hand over or sell the corresponding amount of XRP so that the remaining shares are again backed by actual tokens. These redemptions run through specialised trading firms, known as authorized participants, which swap fund shares and tokens against each other.

When money flows out, XRP that was previously locked in the fund lands on the market. At today's price, $18 million corresponds to roughly 18 million XRP. Relative to daily trading volume of $1.74 billion, that is small. The signal matters more: in their first year the funds were a reliable buyer, and that buyer is currently holding back. That is exactly the gap the growing wallets would need to fill.

Anyone who wants to hold XRP through a security rather than keep the tokens themselves will not find US spot ETFs in Europe, but exchange-traded products under European law. How they work and what to look for in their collateral is explained in our guide to crypto ETFs.

Since Thursday afternoon: XRP slips from $1.02 to $1.00

In the XRP price prediction from Thursday afternoon, the price stood at $1.02; the focus then was the selling overhang on spot and derivatives exchanges since September 23. Since then XRP has lost a further 2 percent and briefly dipped below $1 once overnight. There has been no daily close below it so far.

What is new is the pressure from the overall market: bitcoin has lost a good 3 percent since Thursday afternoon and given up the $70,000 mark, and the fear index has fallen from 28 to 20 points. The August low, on the other hand, has held; it lies between $0.985 and $0.993, depending on whether you count the intraday low or the daily close.

August 2026 as a comparison: back then XRP jumped from $1.00 to $1.52

The $1 level has a history. In mid-August XRP hovered just around $1 for several days, according to CoinGecko daily prices, with the lowest close at $0.993 on August 17. Then the price turned higher: on August 21 XRP stood at $1.27, and on August 24 at $1.52. A gain of a good 50 percent in a week.

The comparison shows how quickly a countermove can unfold at this level. But it also shows the difference to today's situation. In August, sentiment across the market was more stable and ETF flows were positive. Today the fear index points to extreme fear and the funds are losing money. A repeat of the August pattern therefore needs a trigger that is still missing today.

XRP levels: $0.985 below, $1.055 and $1.12 above

On the downside, the first level is the overnight low of $0.9998, followed directly by the August low of $0.985. If XRP closes a day below that, CoinCentral's analysis sees $0.90 to $0.95 as the next zone, then $0.80 to $0.85. Analyst Crypto Patel names $0.70 to $1.00 as the range in which he would buy more, while warning that a confirmed break below $1 could trigger a decline of 30 to 40 percent.

On the upside, the first hurdle is the daily high of $1.055. After that comes the $1.10 to $1.12 zone, which XRP still held on Monday and Tuesday and which Santiment names as the target of a recovery. The former support at $1.18 to $1.25 now acts more as resistance; XRP was trading there in early November. The Relative Strength Index, a measure of how one-sided a price move has been recently, stood at 23 on Thursday, according to CoinCentral, deep in oversold territory below 30.

Our assessment: wallet growth is no substitute for ETF demand

In the editorial team's view, the case for the $1 level is that the number of wallets with at least 10,000 XRP has been rising for nine months, according to Santiment, even in weeks with heavy losses. Add to that an oversold Relative Strength Index of 23 and the pattern from August, when the same level held.

The case against is that the US funds, the largest new buyer of the past year, are currently missing, and the overall market keeps sliding with bitcoin below $70,000. 16,815 new large wallets in nine months are a steady but slow inflow. These wallets cannot absorb a day with $10 million in fund outflows. As long as XRP does not close above $1.12, the trend in our view remains pointed downwards. A daily close below $0.985 would break the August low and open the way towards $0.90. This is not a buy recommendation: cryptocurrencies can fall all the way to a total loss.

XRP at a loss: leverage and the right exchange

Anyone who bought XRP above $1 in recent months is sitting on a loss. Depending on where you live, realising that loss can matter for your tax return; our comparison of crypto tax software shows tools that record each position for you.

Anyone trading with leverage should know the levels above. In the derivatives market, positions are forcibly closed when the collateral is no longer sufficient. With the price around $1, many of these liquidation thresholds sit close together. A brief dip below the August low can trigger cascades there that push the price lower for minutes than the situation warrants. For the purchase itself: trade on an exchange licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation; our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges offers an overview.

XRP whales versus ETF outflows: only $1.12 changes the picture

Three steps can be derived for the coming days:

1. Review how you buy: anyone planning to buy more should check whether their exchange holds a MiCA licence and what fees apply when buying XRP. The comparison of regulated crypto exchanges lists the providers.
2. Document your sales: anyone realising losses before the end of the year needs the purchase date, purchase price and sale price for each position. A crypto tax tool calculates this using the FIFO method.
3. Sort out custody: anyone planning to hold XRP for the long term can move the tokens from the exchange to their own wallet. Which devices support the XRP Ledger is shown in our hardware wallet comparison.

(As of November 13, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)