Bitcoin price 25 percent below its level a year ago: what you can do now

Anyone who bought Bitcoin on 14 October 2025 is looking at a price today that sits roughly a quarter below their own entry. A year ago one Bitcoin cost $115,226 or 99,310 euros; by Wednesday midday it is $82,709 and 74,239 euros. That is 28.2 percent less in dollars and 25.2 percent less in euros. For exactly this vintage the one-year speculative period under German tax law expires today, and what changes with it is not the price but the calculation behind it.

The figures come from CoinGecko's price series for each calendar day. Deribit's futures index stood at $82,844 at the same time, $135 above the spot value. That spread of 0.16 percent is normal and shows how closely the cash market and the futures market sit together on this quiet day.

The year-on-year comparison: 99,310 euros then, 74,239 euros today

A year-on-year comparison looks at first like an accounting exercise. In Germany, though, it decides which tax rules can still be applied to a sale at all, and it frames the situation better than any single day's change. On Wednesday the price moved 0.67 percent lower; over seven days it is down 0.4 percent, while over 30 days it is up 7.08 percent.

These three figures do not contradict each other, they simply measure different windows. The monthly number carries the late-summer recovery, the annual number carries the slump from winter and spring. Look only at the day and the market seems motionless. Look only at the year and it seems to have failed. Both readings miss the situation.

From the one-year low on Wednesday 1 July, the price has recovered by 41.4 percent. From the all-time high on Monday 6 October 2025, it is still 34.4 percent short. Both stretches belong to the same twelve-month span.

Why the loss in euros is smaller than in dollars

Three percentage points separate the two loss figures, and they have nothing to do with Bitcoin. The difference comes from the exchange rate. In October 2025 a euro bought around 1.16 dollars; currently it buys around 1.114. The dollar has therefore gained against the euro, and an asset quoted in dollars loses less when seen from Germany.

This distinction is not a technicality. The tax office calculates in euros. A German investor who works out a gain or loss in dollars, because that is how the trading interface displays it, arrives at a different result from the tax return. What counts is the euro value at the time of acquisition and at the time of disposal.

A worked example makes the difference tangible. Anyone who put in 10,000 euros a year ago holds a value of around 7,475 euros today. Calculated in dollars, $11,600 would have become around $8,330. The dollar calculation shows a loss a good 300 euros larger than the one that actually appears in the tax return.

The all-time high of 6 October 2025 is now more than a year old

The highest price ever paid is $126,080, set on 6 October 2025. Since last Tuesday that record has been more than twelve months old. The highest level of the past 365 days was $114,419 on 27 October 2025, already below the record.

For context that means the market has not seen a new peak in a full year. Phases like this have occurred several times in Bitcoin's history, and they have lasted for varying lengths of time. No statement about the direction of the coming months follows from that, but one about expectations does: anyone who has been betting on a quick new record since autumn 2025 has now waited longer than most timetables allowed for.

236 of 366 days closed below today's price

This is where the year-on-year comparison gets interesting. Counting through the daily closing prices of the past 366 days, 236 of them were below today's level. That is 64.5 percent. The current price is therefore not a weak reading within the year, but one that only a good third of all days exceeded.

That finding only appears to contradict the 25 percent loss. Both statements are correct because they answer different questions. The year-on-year comparison measures two points; the day count measures the whole distance in between. Anyone who bought a year ago caught one of the most expensive entries of the entire period.

The 200-day line at $72,204 and what has changed since 11 October

The 200-day line is the average of the closing prices of the past 200 trading days. It smooths out outliers and serves many market participants as a rough dividing line between a rising and a falling market. It currently sits at $72,204, putting the price 14.7 percent above it.

In our analysis of 11 October that gap was still 15.4 percent. The buffer has shrunk by 0.7 percentage points since then, and not because the price fell sharply but because the average line keeps rising. The line is gradually pulling the low prices of early summer out of its window. That shortens the gap even in a sideways market.

Tuesday's market report had seen Bitcoin at $83,200, with clear relative strength against Solana. That strength persists, the gap has only narrowed slightly: over seven days Bitcoin is down 0.4 percent, Solana 8.97 percent.

The 50-day line at $81,190 as the next level below

Much closer sits the 50-day line at $81,190. The price stands just 2.0 percent above it. That makes it the first level against which a pullback can be measured, and it has been tested several times in recent weeks.

If you work with leverage, know this number before opening a position. At five times leverage a 20 percent decline is enough for liquidation; at ten times leverage 10 percent suffices. From the current level to the 200-day line is 12.8 percent down. A ten-times leveraged position does not survive a move that far, arithmetically speaking. Look up your liquidation price in the table and you find the one number that counts if the worst happens.

What the volatility expectation in the futures market shows

The volatility index of the options exchange Deribit, DVOL for short, measures the range of movement the futures market is pricing in for the coming 30 days. It stands at 38.44 points. On 3 October it was at 35.36; over the past 90 days it moved between 33.59 and 43.41. Expectations have therefore been rising for eleven days, but remain in the middle of their range. The live readings are on Deribit's metrics page.

A rising DVOL with a barely moving price means that hedging becomes more expensive before anything moves. The nearest reason is the calendar: US consumer prices are due on Wednesday, and on Wednesday 28 October the US Federal Reserve decides on its key interest rate. Both dates fall inside the window the index covers.

The one-year period under section 23 of the German Income Tax Act and the 1,000-euro threshold

Bitcoin held as private assets falls in Germany under private disposal transactions pursuant to section 23 of the Income Tax Act. A gain is taxable if no more than one year lies between acquisition and sale. Once that year has passed, the sale is no longer a private disposal transaction and the gain remains tax-free.

The governing letter from the Federal Ministry of Finance dated 6 March 2025 replaced the version of 10 May 2022 and confirmed this line. It also makes clear that the extension of the period to ten years does not apply to payment tokens such as Bitcoin, not even when the holdings generate income through lending or staking.

Within the year an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year applies. Threshold means: if it is reached or exceeded, the entire gain is taxable, not only the part above it. The threshold also applies to all private disposal transactions of a year taken together, so to gold or other tokens as well.

The uncomfortable side of this system concerns losses. A loss from a private disposal transaction can only be offset against gains from private disposal transactions, in the same year, through a carry-back to the previous year, or through an unlimited carry-forward. Sell at a loss after the year has elapsed, however, and you sell outside section 23. There is then no taxable gain, and consequently no loss that could be offset either. For the October 2025 vintage that is precisely the case as of today. Suitable tools for this calculation are in our comparison of crypto tax software.

How the tax office determines the order of purchases

Very few investors bought on a single day. For them the order decides which units count as sold. Where an individual unit cannot be clearly allocated, the Federal Ministry of Finance letter treats the Bitcoin acquired first as disposed of for the purposes of the holding period. This method is known as first in, first out, or FIFO.

In practice that means: buy in October 2025 and in July 2026, sell part of it today, and you give up the old pieces first. Those have been held for more than a year, so they are tax-free and at the same time carry no offsettable loss. The cheap pieces from July 2026 stay in the holding and only become tax-free in July 2027. Without knowing this order, you plan around your own tax burden.

Clean documentation is the precondition. For each purchase you need the date, the quantity and the euro equivalent at the time of acquisition, plus the same details for every sale. If your holdings are spread across several exchanges and wallets, pull this history together before you trade, not in the spring while filling in the Anlage SO form.

Our assessment ahead of the Fed meeting on 28 October

In the editorial team's view the current situation is less weak than the year-on-year comparison suggests, and less stable than the monthly gain of 7.08 percent promises. Three documented points support that. First, the price is above 64.5 percent of all daily closing prices of the past year. Second, the 14.7 percent gap to the 200-day line maintains a noticeable buffer. Third, the priced-in range of movement is tightening from 35.36 to 38.44 points, and doing so ahead of two dates whose outcome is open.

Against it stands the proximity to the 50-day line at $81,190, just 2.0 percent below the current price. Should the price fall below it, the next well-founded support is only 12.8 percent lower. This assessment evaluates the situation; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. With crypto assets a total loss is possible.

What a sale costs in fees

Anyone who does want to give up holdings after this calculation meets a second cost item that has nothing to do with the price. Between trading venues the differences for Bitcoin are substantial depending on the model, and on a four-figure amount the fee saving quickly exceeds what an hour of price movement amounts to. Providers' terms are in our comparison of ways to sell Bitcoin.

Part of that comparison is the question of whether the balance needs to be sold at all. Moving it into self-custody triggers no tax, because no disposal takes place. It changes nothing about the running holding period, though, since that attaches to the acquisition, not to the place of storage.

Bitcoin after one year: below $72,200 the picture turns

The year since 14 October 2025 has shown two things. The entry at 99,310 euros was one of the most expensive of the period, and today's level is nonetheless above two thirds of all days of that year. What matters for the coming weeks is whether the 200-day line at $72,204 holds. Three steps put your own position in order:

1. Collect purchase dates and euro equivalents for each position and check which parts have passed the one-year period. Tools for that are in our comparison of crypto tax software.
2. Before a sale, set the fees of the venues in question side by side, as listed in our comparison of selling routes.
3. If you want to keep building and soften the entry timing, spread the purchase over instalments instead of a single amount. The providers for that are in our savings plan comparison.

This text does not replace tax advice. A tax adviser is responsible for assessing an individual case.

(As of October 14, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)