Bitcoin price at $73,700: outflows from BlackRock's IBIT show no sign of stopping

Bitcoin trades at around $73,700, or roughly €66,000, on Wednesday morning, November 11, 2026, leaving it just above its 200-day moving average. What is established: money keeps leaving the US bitcoin funds, and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has redeemed shares for seven trading days in a row, $1.66 billion in total. Our assessment follows further down: as long as these outflows do not reverse, the price lacks the buyer that would carry it back above last week's levels.

According to CoinGecko, the range over the past 24 hours ran from $72,744 to $74,896, a decline of just over 1 percent. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Bitcoin price prediction. This piece is about the morning: the fund flows, the gap to the stock market and the levels that will decide Wednesday.

Bitcoin price on Wednesday morning: $73,700, 200-day moving average at $73,143

The 200-day moving average is the mean of the daily closing prices over the past 200 days. Many funds and traders read it as the line between an intact and a damaged uptrend. By our calculation from CoinGecko's daily data, it stands at $73,143 on Wednesday morning. The price is therefore only about $600, or 0.8 percent, above it.

The shorter averages sit well higher. The 20-day average stands at $78,107 and the 50-day average at $81,386, so bitcoin trades below both. It is a good 12 percent away from the highest daily close of the past 30 days, $84,082 on October 22.

For a year-on-year comparison: on November 12, 2025, bitcoin closed at around $103,100 according to the same data. Anyone who bought then is almost 29 percent down today. That matters for tax purposes, more on which below.

IBIT outflows: money has left BlackRock's bitcoin fund for seven straight trading days

The twelve US spot bitcoin funds lost a combined $201 million on Monday, November 9. That is shown by data from Farside Investors, analysed on Tuesday by Finwire, citing Cointelegraph. IBIT alone shed $213 million, while Morgan Stanley's fund (MSBT) took in $22 million and softened the outflow slightly. On the Friday before, the figure had still been $412 million, so the pace eased.

Over six trading days, outflows from all bitcoin funds add up to around $1.5 billion. IBIT has lost money every day since October 30, seven sessions in a row and $1.66 billion in total. Year to date, the funds stand at net outflows of $1.1 billion. In both 2024 and 2025 they had gathered around $25 billion each by early November. Complete figures for Tuesday were not yet available early on Wednesday morning.

Ether funds are losing money too: according to SoSoValue, around $185 million flowed out of the US spot ether funds on Monday, the largest daily outflow since October 6.

How a fund outflow pushes down the bitcoin price

A spot bitcoin fund holds actual bitcoin. When investors redeem shares, the issuer has to sell bitcoin through its trading partners or deliver it from its holdings in order to pay out the shares. At $213 million in a single day, that comes to just under 2,900 bitcoin at today's price. That is more than twice what the network creates in a day: since the 2024 halving, around 450 new bitcoin have been produced daily.

The mechanism works in both directions. In the months of inflows, the funds took more bitcoin off the market day after day than was newly created. Now that is reversing, and the selling pressure meets a market in which retail investors are holding back as well. According to the analytics firm Santiment, the bitcoin network has lost around 108,700 addresses holding a balance since October 16, as CoinDesk reported on Tuesday.

Since Tuesday: bitcoin fell to $72,744 and climbed back above the line

Our Bitcoin price article from Tuesday morning gave $74,600 as the starting point, $75,500 as the level to the upside and $73,636 to the downside. The upper level was not reached, with the daily high stopping at $74,896. The lower level, however, gave way: after the US consumer price figures for October came in higher than expected, bitcoin slid to $72,744 over the past 24 hours and so briefly dropped below the 200-day moving average.

Two things are new since then. First, the price has not given up the line and has returned above it; a daily close below it has yet to happen. Second, the picture in the rates market has hardened, because a member of the US Federal Reserve is openly backing a rate increase in December. On Monday the line stood at $73,170; today it is at $73,143, so it is edging lower as well.

Stocks versus bitcoin: the S&P 500 rises as bitcoin decouples from the Nasdaq

The start of the week on Wall Street was striking. According to CoinDesk, the S&P 500 had its best day since April 8 on Monday, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7 percent. Bitcoin did not follow. For weeks the price had tracked Nasdaq futures closely; it fell with them on October 30 and again during the sell-off in AI stocks the week before. That link now only holds on the way down.

A second finding fits the picture: Brent crude fell below $90, for the first time since August. Falling energy prices ease inflation, which normally helps every asset that thrives on low interest rates. That bitcoin is not benefiting from this either suggests the pressure is coming from within its own market, from the funds and from the retreat of small investors.

Fed rate hike in December: Waller pushes the FedWatch probability to 96 percent

The tone for the rates market was set on Tuesday by Christopher Waller, a governor of the US Federal Reserve. Speaking at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, he said, according to Cointelegraph: "I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC's policy rate at our December meeting." Should inflation come in markedly higher than he expects, a larger step could also become necessary.

The CME's FedWatch tool, which derives expectations from interest rate futures, then jumped from 76.3 to 96.3 percent for a 0.25 percentage point increase on December 9. Other sources put the figure lower, at around 84 percent after the inflation data; the spread shows how quickly expectations are moving at the moment. For bitcoin this is a headwind: higher rates make safe assets more attractive and raise the cost of the loans traders use to leverage their positions.

Fear and Greed Index at 29: sentiment stays in fear territory

The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 to 100, based on volatility, trading volume, social media and dominance. On Wednesday it stands at 29, down from 32 on Tuesday. On Saturday, November 7, it was at 25, in the extreme fear zone, and as recently as November 5 it showed a neutral 50. Our Fear and Greed chart shows how it has moved.

A low reading is not a buy signal in itself. It describes a market in which many participants are cautious and selling prevails. The jump from 50 to 25 within two days last week stands out: sentiment flipped faster than the price fell.

Resistance at $75,451, support at $73,143: the bitcoin levels

To the upside, the first level is the daily high of $74,896. Above that comes $75,451, Strategy's average purchase price, which our Bitcoin price prediction from Tuesday evening described as a boundary. Only a close above it would interrupt the downward move that began on October 22. The next hurdle after that is the 20-day average at $78,107.

To the downside, the 200-day moving average at $73,143 is the decisive level, with the 24-hour low of $72,744 beneath it. If that breaks as well, the zone around $72,000 comes into view, which Tuesday's Bitcoin price prediction named as the next support. If you trade with leverage, you do not place your stop directly on one of these round levels: many orders sit there, and a brief swing like Tuesday's triggers them all at once.

Leverage and liquidation below the 200-day moving average

A liquidation occurs when the collateral behind a leveraged position is no longer sufficient and the exchange closes it by force. At 10x leverage, a decline of around 10 percent, to about $66,300 from today's price, is enough to wipe out a long position without a margin top-up. At 20x, a drop of around 5 percent to about $70,000 already does it. If you are leveraged, check the liquidation threshold in your account today and decide whether to add collateral or reduce the position.

Bitcoin funds in Germany: why IBIT does not end up in German portfolios

The US funds that are getting so much coverage right now generally cannot be bought by retail investors in Germany. They lack the key information document required under the European PRIIPs Regulation, without which banks and brokers cannot offer them to small investors. Anyone who wants to hold bitcoin in a securities account turns to exchange-traded products from European issuers, usually ETNs or ETPs backed by bitcoin. Which products exist, and what matters on costs and custody, is set out in our overview Buying crypto ETFs in Germany.

Buying bitcoin directly works through a crypto exchange or a broker. Since the European MiCA Regulation, providers serving customers in Germany need a licence as a crypto-asset service provider. A list of vetted providers with fees and licence status can be found in our crypto exchange comparison.

Holding period and loss offsetting with bitcoin below $75,000

In Germany, gains from bitcoin are tax-free if more than one year passes between purchase and sale. Anyone who sells earlier pays tax on the gain at their personal income tax rate, provided all private disposal gains for the year together reach €1,000. The current state of the debate over this holding period is tracked on our page on the status of the crypto holding period reform.

The decline has a second side. Anyone who bought at higher prices within the past twelve months and sells now realises a loss. That loss can be offset against gains from other private disposal transactions in the same year or carried forward to later years. Someone who got in at around $103,000 in November 2025, for example, is almost 29 percent below that today and only has until the anniversary of the purchase: after that a sale is tax-free, but a loss can then no longer be offset either. A tax tool that imports purchase data from the exchanges shows which holdings reach the deadline when.

Our assessment: the 200-day moving average only holds with new buyers

In the newsroom's view, Wednesday will be decided less by the chart than by the fund data for Tuesday. The mechanics support this: seven days of IBIT outflows totalling $1.66 billion have cost the market more bitcoin than was newly created over the same period, and retail investors are not buying the dip, according to Santiment. A stock market in positive territory and a falling oil price did not close that gap on Monday.

Against this, the pace has slowed, from $412 million on Friday to $201 million on Monday, and the price returned above the line after slipping below $73,000. If Tuesday's figures show the first inflow since October 30, the 200-day moving average would have a reason to hold. If they show an eighth day of outflows at IBIT, a close below $73,143 would become more likely. This is an assessment of the situation, not a recommendation to buy or sell; bitcoin can fall sharply at any time, up to a total loss of the money invested.

Bitcoin ahead of the fund data: the 200-day moving average remains the test

1. Settle how you buy: if you want to add to your position, use a MiCA-licensed provider and compare trading fees and spreads beforehand in the exchange comparison.
2. Record your tax position: transfer purchase dates and entry prices for all holdings into a crypto tax tool, so that holding periods and possible losses are visible before year-end.
3. Spread your entry rather than betting on one level: if you are unsure whether the 200-day moving average will hold, you can spread the purchase over several dates with a bitcoin savings plan.

(As of November 11, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)