US inflation runs hot: Bitcoin at $73,600 with stops in focus before December 9

The facts first: US consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October from the previous month, against expectations of 0.3 percent. The core rate, at 0.3 percent, also came in above the 0.2 percent forecast. Bitcoin gave up another percent after the release at 14:30 German time and fell to around $73,600. Our assessment follows further down. With these numbers, a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on December 9 is regarded as settled, and the Bitcoin price sits only just above the level that decides the direction this week.

Anyone trading with leverage or considering buying more now has a clear date ahead. The Fed decides on December 9, and the next inflation reading is not due until December 10, a day later. Until then the market has to live with the October numbers.

US CPI for October: 0.4 percent instead of the expected 0.3 percent

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of November 10, the seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.4 percent from the previous month. In September the increase had been 0.6 percent, so inflation has slowed, but by less than hoped. Economists had expected 0.3 percent, according to CoinDesk.

There is no official annual rate for October. The agency could not collect prices in October 2025 because of the shutdown of the US federal government, and without that comparison figure the change over twelve months is missing. Our preview on Tuesday morning had already pointed this out. The market is therefore reading the monthly figures alone.

A simple extrapolation shows how large a deviation of 0.1 percentage points is. A monthly rise of 0.4 percent corresponds to annualised inflation of just under 4.9 percent, a rise of 0.3 percent to around 3.7 percent. The Fed's inflation target is 2 percent.

Core CPI at 0.3 percent: why the Fed looks at inflation excluding energy

The core rate measures price changes excluding energy and food. Both groups swing sharply with the oil price, harvests and the weather, so the core rate is seen as the better gauge of persistent price pressure. In October it rose 0.3 percent, as much as in September and 0.1 percentage points more than forecast.

This was the figure that drew the most attention before the release. A core rate of 0.2 percent would have shown that inflation is cooling beyond gasoline. At 0.3 percent, pressure in rents, services and goods stays just as high. For a central bank that last left rates unchanged in October and has since talked openly about a hike, that is an argument for a move in December.

Energy, food, shelter: where October's price pressure came from

The individual components explain why the headline rate beat expectations. Energy rose 0.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is far less than the 5.2 percent in September, but it is not the decline many previews had expected on the back of cheaper gasoline.

Food rose 0.5 percent after being flat in September. Housing costs, grouped in the index under shelter, increased 0.3 percent. Shelter covers rents and the imputed rental value of owner-occupied homes and makes up around a third of the overall index. As long as this item does not ease, the core rate will hardly fall either.

Bitcoin price after the CPI data: $73,600, with Ether falling harder

Bitcoin was already under pressure before the release. According to CoinDesk, the price had lost 1.4 percent since midnight by the morning as traders priced in a rate hike. After the data it fell another percent to around $73,600. In the afternoon Bitcoin traded at around $73,900 according to CoinPaprika, 1.3 percent below the previous day and 4.4 percent below its level a week ago.

Compared with the morning preview, the picture has shifted. At six o'clock German time Bitcoin still stood at $74,600, and Monday's low of $73,636 was the second level to watch on the downside. That level was briefly broken after the data. Sunday's low of $73,477 held into the afternoon.

Ether fell more sharply. According to CoinPaprika, ETH cost around $2,070 in the afternoon, 2.9 percent less than the previous day and 9.4 percent less than a week ago. The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stood at 32 points on Tuesday, in fear territory.

Two-year Treasury yield jumps 14 basis points to 4.69 percent

The bond market showed the clearest reaction. The yield on two-year US Treasuries rose 14 basis points to 4.69 percent, according to CoinDesk. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Two-year notes react particularly strongly to rate expectations for the coming months because their maturity is short.

For Bitcoin, the rise works through two channels. Higher yields make it more attractive for large investors to park money safely and earn interest rather than put it into volatile assets. At the same time, higher rates make every form of financing more expensive, including leveraged positions in the crypto market. CoinDesk reads the jump in yields as a sign that the market is even pricing in a small probability of a half-point move.

Fed rate decision on December 9: the next inflation print comes after it

According to its meeting calendar, the central bank meets on December 8 and 9 for the last meeting of the year. At that meeting it will also publish new projections for growth, inflation and interest rates. CoinDesk reports that even before the data, traders using the CME FedWatch tool were pricing in a hike of 0.25 percentage points, which would lift the target range to 4.00 to 4.25 percent. After the data, CoinDesk describes the hike as a certainty.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already argued for higher rates before the release, according to CoinDesk, and said a hotter-than-expected print could also justify a move of 0.5 percentage points. Whether the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee will go that far remains open.

The order of the dates matters for planning. November consumer prices will be published on Thursday, December 10, after the rate decision. The October numbers are therefore the last inflation reading the Fed sees before it decides. Until December 9, many traders expect labour market data and comments from central bankers to move the price.

Leverage and liquidation: how far away the 200-day moving average is

In our analysis on Monday, Bitcoin's 200-day moving average stood at around $73,170. This line is the average of the closing prices of the last 200 days, and many traders read it as the boundary between a long-term uptrend and downtrend. At $73,900 the gap is now only about one percent.

A liquidation is the forced closure of a leveraged position once the posted collateral no longer covers the losses. A rough calculation without fees shows how quickly that can happen. With five times leverage, a price drop of just under 20 percent wipes out the entire collateral; with ten times leverage, just under 10 percent is enough. Because exchanges also require minimum collateral, the actual liquidation price sits somewhat closer to the entry.

A stop-loss is an order that closes a position automatically once a set price is reached. It limits the loss to an amount you define in advance and kicks in before a liquidation. If the stop sits just below a closely watched level such as the 200-day moving average, however, it is easily triggered in volatile minutes. Anyone holding long positions should therefore recalculate their own liquidation price and place the stop at a distance from round numbers. Which platforms allow which leverage and how they calculate minimum collateral is shown in our comparison of perp DEX providers.

Bitcoin in euros at €65,900: savings plans, holding period and loss offsetting

In euros, Bitcoin cost around €65,900 in the afternoon, according to CoinPaprika. Anyone buying without leverage need not fear a liquidation price but carries the full price risk. A savings plan spreads purchases over fixed dates and takes the question of the right day out of the entry. Whether you buy before or after December 9 then matters less. Since the transition periods expired, providers in Germany need a licence under the European MiCA regulation. Which platforms hold one and what a purchase costs there is shown in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

For selling in Germany, the holding period counts. Gains on coins held for more than a year are tax-free. Within a year, a sale is a private disposal, and gains remain tax-free only up to an exemption limit of €1,000 a year. Many purchases from the autumn are in the red after the decline since the November 4 high of $81,131. Such losses can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year. Which coins were bought when and at what price is worked out by crypto tax software using the FIFO method, under which the coins bought first count as sold first.

Our view: core inflation shifts the pressure to December

In the newsroom's view, the October figures fall between the two scenarios we described in the morning. The evidence: core inflation came in at 0.3 percent, above expectations but below the 0.4 percent threshold that would have made a quick test of the 200-day moving average likely. The two-year yield rose 14 basis points, and Bitcoin lost about one percent after the data, no more.

From this we conclude that the market had already largely priced in the rate hike. The bigger risk for the price lies in a half-point move, which Waller has floated. Against a quick recovery: US Bitcoin funds lost a net $1.282 billion in the first week of November according to SoSoValue, as our Tuesday morning preview reported. In favour of a recovery: Sunday's low of $73,477 held in the afternoon, and sentiment has risen from 28 to 32 points since the weekend. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.

Bitcoin after the CPI: the 200-day line counts until December 9

Until the rate decision, the level around $73,170 remains the most important reference point. Three steps help you approach the weeks until then in an orderly way:

1. For leveraged positions, recalculate the liquidation price and set a stop-loss at a distance from the 200-day moving average. You will find providers' leverage limits and collateral rules in the perp DEX comparison.
2. If you buy without leverage, spread purchases through a savings plan with a MiCA-licensed provider instead of putting everything in before December 9. The providers are listed in the exchange comparison.
3. Before selling, check the holding period of each individual purchase and have this year's losses recorded for offsetting, for instance with a tool from the crypto tax software comparison.

(As of November 10, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)