US core inflation falls to 3.0 percent: what investors need to know before the Fed decision on October 28

The most important inflation figure in the United States came in weaker than expected on September 30. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, known internationally as core PCE, rose 3.0 percent in August against the same month a year earlier. The market had expected 3.3 percent. For you as an investor in Germany, one thing above all follows from that: the probability that the Federal Reserve turns the interest rate screw once more on October 28 has fallen within a few days from around 70 percent to below half. Higher rates are the counterweight to risk assets, and Bitcoin is one of them.

Core PCE in August: what the BEA release says

The US Commerce Department publishes the figure through the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or BEA. The release carrying the reference BEA 26-43 appeared on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. local time on the US East Coast, which is 2:30 p.m. German time. It can be read in the BEA's Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 press release.

The figures in detail, all from that release: the overall PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in August against the previous month and 3.4 percent against the previous year. Excluding food and energy it was 0.2 percent month on month and 3.0 percent year on year. Personal income increased by $66.6 billion, which corresponds to 0.2 percent in the month. Real, meaning inflation-adjusted, consumer spending rose by $92.8 billion, or 0.6 percent.

What core PCE actually measures

Core PCE is the inflation gauge against which the Federal Reserve sets its two percent target. It measures how the prices of the goods and services US households actually buy are changing, and it leaves out food and energy because those prices swing sharply and obscure the underlying trend. That is precisely why rate markets react more strongly to this figure than to the better-known consumer price index.

One detail of this publication matters for context: alongside the August data, the BEA presented the annual revision of the national accounts. Retroactive corrections to earlier months are possible as a result. Anyone comparing time series should therefore take the revised values and not the figures that were in circulation before September 30.

Core and headline rates diverge: why 3.0 against 3.4 percent

At 3.4 percent, the headline rate sits above the core rate of 3.0 percent. That gap of 0.4 percentage points comes from food and energy, which are exactly the two groups stripped out of the core rate. When the headline rate is higher, price pressure comes predominantly from there and less from the breadth of the economy.

For the central bank that is a more comfortable constellation than the reverse case. Energy prices respond to supply, transport routes and political conditions, not to the policy rate. A rate rise barely touches them. Broad services pressure, on the other hand, can be slowed with rates, and that is what the core rate captures. The fact that the core rate eased unexpectedly therefore takes out of the calculation precisely the part of price pressure the Fed would answer with rates.

This is no all-clear. Three percent is still one and a half times the two percent target, and the figure refers to August, not to September. More data is due before the meeting on October 28.

CME FedWatch slips below half: the market reads October 28 differently

How the market assesses the next rate decision can be read off the futures contracts on the US overnight rate. The probability derived from them is usually quoted as CME FedWatch. At the start of the week, the expectation of a further rate rise in October stood at around 70 percent according to reports from several financial media outlets. After a speech by a senior central banker on September 29 and the weaker inflation figure on September 30, it fell below 50 percent.

Exactly how far depends on the source, and the values differ. On September 30, published readings ranged from about 35 to 47 percent for a rise. That range deliberately stands here rather than being reduced to a round number. What counts is the direction: a probable rise has become an open question.

The September 29 speech and the rate curve: what tipped expectations

The trigger came from John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to reports from financial media, he signalled in a speech on September 29 that he sees no hurry over a further rate step. That is notable because the same central banker had said five days earlier that a further rise by the end of the year could reasonably be expected. Within a week the tone shifted, and the inflation figure the following day supported the softer reading.

Read such statements for what they are: assessments by individual voices on the decision-making body, not decisions. The vote takes place in the Open Market Committee, and its meeting dates are fixed. For the rest of the year there are two, according to the official Federal Reserve meeting calendar: October 27 and 28, and December 8 and 9. The decision comes on the second day in each case.

Bitcoin between $82,951 and $85,518: the range of the past 24 hours

The reaction was visible, but it did not hold. Bitcoin jumped after the release and then gave the jump back. According to CoinGecko market data, the price stood at $83,692 on Thursday morning, 0.52 percent above the level 24 hours earlier. Within those 24 hours the high was $85,518 and the low $82,951. Individual reports put the immediate reaction at just under $85,900, which means the figures for the daily high range from about $85,500 to $85,900 depending on the data source.

Over the week there is a loss of 0.75 percent, and over 30 days a gain of 6.52 percent. That produces a picture a single day cannot explain: the inflation figure has loosened rate pressure, but it has not triggered a breakout. The price continues to move in the range it has been in all week.

Why a brief reaction says nothing about the week

Macro figures work in two stages. First, automated systems react within seconds to the deviation from expectations, and that spike often disappears the same day. Only afterwards does it become clear whether larger addresses actually change their positioning. That can be read off futures market data and the inflows and outflows of exchange-traded products, not off the price in a single hour.

Buying routes in Germany: MiCA exchange, ETN and what the US market does not offer you

Anyone in Germany who wants to position for looser rate policy has two common routes, and both come with rules of their own. The first is the direct purchase through a trading platform authorised in the EU under the regulation on markets in crypto-assets, known as MiCA. The authorisation is publicly verifiable, and it determines what obligations the provider has towards you. Which houses hold it can be looked up in the public register before you open an account.

The second route runs through exchange-traded products. In Germany these are as a rule ETNs or ETPs, which you trade on Xetra through your existing securities account. One distinction matters here that regularly causes misunderstandings: a US spot ETF on a cryptocurrency is normally not tradable for retail investors in Germany, because it is not subject to the European requirements on investor information and fund structure. What launches in New York therefore does not land in your portfolio automatically. What the European route looks like instead is set out in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs for investors in Germany.

The two routes also differ in what you own at the end. With a direct purchase you hold the coins, with everything that goes with them, from custody to your own responsibility for the keys. With an ETN you hold a debt security issued by the provider that tracks the price.

The holding period under Section 23 EStG: why the rate path reaches into your tax planning

A particularity applies to the direct purchase in Germany that does not exist in the same form with an ETN. Gains from the sale of cryptocurrencies fall under private disposals under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. If you sell within a year of buying, the gain is taxable. After a holding period of more than a year, it is not. There is also a threshold for small gains, and you should check its current level with the tax office or in a tax guide before deciding, because the amount has been adjusted in recent years.

The link to the rate path is more immediate than it first sounds. If you hold a position you would actually sell because of the rate outlook, your purchase date determines how expensive that sale becomes. If the purchase was eleven months ago, selling now may cost considerably more than selling in four weeks. That is not a recommendation to hold anything, but a figure that belongs in the decision. Anyone with many purchases spread across different months will hardly keep them apart cleanly without help; tools for that are in our comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers.

Leverage and liquidation: how thin the buffer at $83,692 really is

On days with macro data in particular, a manageable price swing turns into a total loss once leverage is in play. Work it through with this day's figures. From the level at $83,692 to the 24-hour low at $82,951 is 0.89 percent. At tenfold leverage that move corresponds to a loss of almost 9 percent of your stake, at twentyfold leverage about 18 percent.

Take the whole range of the day, from the high at $85,518 to the low at $82,951, and it is 3.0 percent. Anyone who entered at the high with twentyfold leverage had lost around 60 percent of their margin at the low. These are not exceptional numbers but a quiet trading day with a single macro figure. Ahead of the meeting on October 28, larger swings are more likely than today.

What actually happens in a liquidation

Once the price reaches the liquidation level, the exchange closes the position automatically and the margin is gone. The common offerings do not create an obligation to pay in more, but the loss is not recoverable either if the price turns afterwards. With a direct purchase without leverage this threshold does not exist; there a paper loss stays a paper loss as long as you do not sell.

Levels above and below: $85,518 in the way, $82,951 as the floor

Two orientation points emerge from the daily data that manage without a forecast. Above lies the daily high at $85,518. That is where the price failed after the inflation figure, and as long as it stays below, the impulse from that figure has been absorbed. Below lies the daily low at $82,951. If the price drops under it, the positive reaction to the weaker inflation has been given back in full.

These two values are measurement points from the past 24 hours, not price targets. Anyone working with levels updates them daily, because yesterday's range carries nothing today. For that you need no forecast, only a data source and a fixed rhythm.

October 28 and December 9: the two dates that shape the quarter

Two dates remain for this year, and they are in the Federal Reserve's official calendar. The Open Market Committee meets on October 27 and 28, with the decision on October 28. The last meeting of the year follows on December 8 and 9, with the decision on December 9. The December meeting additionally includes the summary of economic projections, in which members disclose their own rate expectations.

Further data releases fall between today and October 28, among them the next inflation figure. Today's expectation is therefore not the expectation of late October. All that holds today is this: the market no longer treats a rise as the more likely case.

Core inflation and Bitcoin: what to take away

The August figure has loosened rate pressure without removing it. Three things follow from it concretely:

1. Settle the buying route before you buy. Decide whether you want to buy directly or go through an exchange-traded product, and for the direct variant establish the provider's MiCA authorisation. The overview is in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.
2. Settle custody before the sum grows. If you hold coins directly, the decision about the keys belongs with it. Which devices come into question is set out in the hardware wallet comparison.
3. Carry the range forward daily. $85,518 above and $82,951 below apply to October 1. Anyone working with levels like these needs a reliable data source; suitable tools are in our overview of analytics platforms.

(As of October 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)