US inflation rises to 3.7 percent, core rate above forecast: what matters now for Bitcoin

US consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in September against the previous year. Economists had expected 3.6 percent. The core rate, which excludes energy and food, rose 2.6 percent and was therefore also above the forecast of 2.5 percent. For the crypto market this is the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on October 28. Bitcoin trades at around $82,880 after the figure, barely moving from where it stood before publication.

What is decisive for the coming two weeks is not the 3.7 percent headline but the gap between the two readings. It comes to 1.1 percentage points, which is unusually wide. Anyone who wants to know what the Fed will do on October 28 looks at the smaller of the two numbers.

US consumer prices at 3.7 percent: the figures in detail

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the statistical agency of the US Department of Labor, published the consumer price index for September at midday European time on Wednesday. Four readings are at the centre of it:

• Headline rate year on year: 3.7 percent, against a consensus forecast of 3.6 percent.
• Headline rate month on month: up 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Here the forecast was accurate.
• Core rate year on year: 2.6 percent, where 2.5 percent had been expected.
• Core rate month on month: up 0.3 percent.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index measures what households in the United States pay for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is the most important inflation figure for financial markets, even though the Fed prefers a different index for its own two percent target, the price index for personal consumption expenditures.

Core CPI at 2.6 percent: why central bankers look at this number

The core rate leaves energy and food out of the basket. The reason lies in what monetary policy can steer: the oil price responds to conflicts, production quotas and weather, not to the policy rate. A central bank that answers an energy shock with higher rates slows the economy without touching the cause. That is why the core rate counts as the better measure of the price pressure monetary policy can actually reach.

At 2.6 percent the core rate sits considerably closer to the Fed's target than the headline rate. According to our report of October 1 it previously stood at 3.0 percent, so the decline is continuing. At the same time the reading came in a tenth of a point higher than expected, and that tenth of a point is precisely the part of the release that gets discussed in the open market committee.

What a tenth of a point means in practice

A single monthly reading above forecast shifts no monetary policy. Three such readings in a row do. The Fed watches the trend over several months, because the index is seasonally adjusted anew each month and individual components such as airline tickets or used cars swing sharply. For you that means a reading like this one rarely changes the situation immediately; it changes the probabilities for the meeting after next.

Petrol up 9.1 percent: the energy shock behind the headline

Petrol prices rose 9.1 percent in September and thus accounted for roughly half of the entire increase in the headline rate. The energy index as a whole rose 5.2 percent. Behind it is the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has pushed the oil price higher.

That origin explains the wide gap between 3.7 and 2.6 percent. A price surge that comes out of a geopolitical situation runs straight into the headline rate via the fuel pump, but does not touch the core rate. It only migrates in once freight firms, airlines and manufacturers factor the higher energy costs into their own prices. That transition takes months, and whether it comes depends on how long the oil price stays up.

Bitcoin at $82,880: the range of the past seven days

Bitcoin has not responded to the figure with a breakout so far. The price sits at around $82,880, about half a percent below its level 24 hours earlier and around one percent below where it stood a week ago. Over a month it is up 6.6 percent. It is 34.3 percent short of the record high of $126,080 of October 6, 2025.

For the levels that count in the coming days, cryptoticker.io analysed the price action of the past seven days itself, across 169 measuring points at hourly intervals. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 14, 2026. The result:

• Low of the week: $80,652, reached on October 8.
• High of the week: $84,154, reached on October 12.
• Width of the range: $3,502, or 4.3 percent.

The current price sits in the upper half of that range but below the high. As long as Bitcoin stays between those two readings, the inflation figure is priced in without setting a new direction. A close below $80,652 would be the first signal that the market assesses the Fed meeting differently than it has so far. A breakout above $84,154 would be the counterpart.

Ethereum is moving just as calmly and trades at around $2,482, 0.8 percent below yesterday's level. The large crypto assets are therefore reacting to this release in muted fashion, unlike some inflation readings of past years.

Fed target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent: where things stand before October 28

One point is regularly turned around in German coverage, so it is stated here explicitly: the Fed is not cutting at the moment, it is raising. According to the Federal Reserve's summary of open market operations, the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 17, 2026. There has been no cut at all in 2026 so far.

The next meeting runs on October 27 and 28, with the decision falling on the second day. After that one more meeting follows this year, on December 8 and 9. Today's inflation reading is therefore the last major data release that still feeds into the assessment before the October decision.

A rate rise instead of a rate cut: the difference for the crypto market

Rising policy rates act on Bitcoin through two routes. The first is comparison: if short-dated government bonds and overnight deposits yield four percent, an investment without interest has to make up for that sacrifice. The second route runs through financing: higher rates make borrowed money more expensive, and a large part of the short-term moves on the crypto market arises through leveraged positions.

A step up in rates is therefore a headwind for crypto assets at first, and a step down a tailwind. That explains why the market reads every inflation figure so closely. Bitcoin has gained over a month this year despite the September increase, so the relationship is no automatic mechanism. It describes a direction, not a formula.

Leverage and liquidation: how macro dates wear positions down

A liquidation occurs when the collateral behind a leveraged position is no longer enough to cover the paper loss. The exchange then closes the position by force. On days with macro releases that happens in clusters, because the price jumps further in a few minutes than it otherwise does in hours.

Anyone working with leverage checks, ahead of such dates, the distance between their entry and the liquidation price, which every exchange shows in the position overview. At a leverage of ten, a move of ten percent against the position is enough. Last week's range came to 4.3 percent, and a single price reaction to a Fed decision can exceed that. Which providers in Germany offer stop orders, partial closes and margin warnings, and what they cost, is set out in our overview of the best crypto brokers.

Holding period and tax in Germany: the framework does not change

An American inflation figure does not change German taxation. Gains from selling crypto assets remain tax-free in Germany after a holding period of one year; within the year they count as a private disposal transaction and are charged at the personal income tax rate. What matters, therefore, is that a reaction to macro news does not reset your own holding period unnoticed.

Anyone who sells in October and buys back in November starts the one-year clock afresh for the new holdings. For anyone whose anniversary is close at hand, the tax difference can be larger than the price move they wanted to avoid by selling. Specialised tools track the holding period for each purchase and generate a report for the tax return from it.

What is added for European investors

For the purchase itself, a uniform framework has applied across the EU since the MiCA regulation. Providers need an authorisation to sell crypto assets to retail customers, and they have to keep customer funds separate from their own assets. With a provider without EU authorisation that protection does not exist, regardless of what the fees look like. Whether a trading venue is authorised can be looked up in the register of the competent supervisory authority.

Our assessment: the core carries more weight than the headline

From the newsroom's point of view this release is less explosive for the crypto market than the 3.7 percent suggests. Three pieces of evidence for that: half of the increase comes from a petrol price that has risen 9.1 percent and on which rate policy has no effect. The core rate stands at 2.6 percent and is therefore lower than in the previous month. And Bitcoin has absorbed the figure without breaking out of the weekly range of $80,652 to $84,154.

Against it stands the direction of that tenth of a point: both readings came in above forecast, and the Fed raised in September rather than cutting. If the oil price stays at this level, the energy surge will migrate into the core rate via transport and manufacturing costs. The October reading, published on November 12, would then be the more important number. This is an assessment, not a recommendation: crypto assets can lose their value entirely.

US inflation and Bitcoin: until October 28 the core rate is what counts

The September reading gives the Fed no reason to turn its course, and it gives the crypto market no new direction. What counts now comes down to three steps:

1. Note the levels. $80,652 as the weekly low, $84,154 as the weekly high. If Bitcoin leaves that range after the Fed meeting, the market's assessment has flipped. Current prices and inflows are available in the overview of the best crypto exchanges.
2. Review your leverage before October 28. The distance to the liquidation price is in your exchange's position overview. Anyone who needs more buffer reduces the position or sets a stop. Which providers have which tools for that is set out in the comparison of the best crypto brokers.
3. Look up your own holding period. Before a sale for macro reasons, it is worth a look at the purchase date. If the anniversary is close, the tax exemption often weighs more than the volatility avoided. The crypto tax tools track this for each purchase.

(As of October 14, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)