ETF inflows of $526.7 million meet a Bitcoin price of $82,708: the levels that decide before the Fed meeting

A Bitcoin costs $82,708 on Wednesday morning, or 73,652 euros. On Monday, $526.7 million flowed into the US spot ETFs, the strongest day since September, and yet October is still negative for those funds. Two lines frame the market until the Federal Reserve decides on rates on October 28: the 50-day moving average at $81,679 below, and the 20-day average at $83,117 above.

Overnight trading: the $81,273 low sat below the 50-day average

Between Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning the price moved between $81,273 and $83,249. That is a range of $1,976, or 2.39 percent measured against the current level. The night was therefore far livelier than the three days before it, which we covered on Tuesday.

Where the low sat matters more than the range itself. In our Tuesday morning piece, the 50-day average at $81,481 was the next level on the downside. That line has since risen to $81,679, an increase of $198. The overnight low of $81,273 sat $406 below it. The price broke the line and had worked its way back $1,029 above it by the morning.

In practice, that means a single breach has triggered no follow-on selling in this phase. Only a daily close below the line would be a signal that trading systems built on moving averages react to, and that did not happen overnight.

We calculated the moving averages in this piece ourselves, from CoinGecko daily closes over the past 200 days, as of Wednesday morning. Such lines differ by a few dollars between providers and data sources, because exchanges use different closing times.

$526.7 million into the US Bitcoin ETFs, the strongest day since September

According to Farside Investors data, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million net on Monday. That is the largest inflow on a single trading day since September. A spot ETF holds the coins itself rather than tracking the price through a futures position. Every dollar of inflow therefore leads to an actual purchase in the market.

The Ethereum ETFs ran the other way the same day and gave up $103.3 million, $95.4 million of it at BlackRock’s ETHA alone. So the money did not move broadly into crypto; it went into Bitcoin specifically.

BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $665.2 million, Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million

The net figure hides how uneven the day was. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took in $665.2 million, more than the entire net inflow for the day. Fidelity’s FBTC gave up $83.6 million over the same period.

A single provider carried the day, then, while at least one other lost money. Read the net figure as a broad return of institutional buyers and you are reading in more than the breakdown supports. For the price effect that is secondary: the coins have to be bought in the market, whichever provider receives the money.

October stays around $88 million in the red despite Monday

One strong day does not turn the monthly balance. On the daily Farside Investors figures, which the financial service FXStreet reviewed on Tuesday, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain around $88 million in the red for October. Monday almost evened out the month, no more than that.

That fits the price picture. Bitcoin is down 1.16 percent over seven days and up 1.56 percent over 30 days. It sits 34.4 percent below the all-time high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025. The market has been moving sideways for weeks, and the fund flows are doing the same.

The 200-day average at $72,723 and a gap of 13.73 percent

The short averages sit close to the price, but the distance to the downside is wide. On our calculation the 200-day average stands at $72,723, with the price 13.73 percent above it. The 100-day average sits at $74,780, 10.60 percent below the current level.

That spread is the real state of the market: everything is tight in the short term, while there is plenty of room below before any of the long averages even comes into play. The 20-day average at $83,117 is $409 above the price, the 50-day average $1,029 below it. This week’s trading plays out between those two values.

Bitcoin’s share of the entire crypto market stands at 59.52 percent, with $26.74 billion of turnover in 24 hours. Both readings suggest the money in the market is staying with Bitcoin rather than rotating into smaller coins.

Fed meeting on October 28: the target range stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent

The Federal Open Market Committee meets on October 27 and 28, with the decision due at 2 p.m. local time in Washington on the Wednesday, 7 p.m. in Germany. The date appears in the Federal Reserve meeting calendar. A fresh round of projections with members’ rate forecasts is not part of it; a press conference by chair Kevin Warsh is.

The target range stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The Fed raised it by a quarter point in September, the first increase in more than three years. On prediction markets the probability of an unchanged range sat between 84 and 88 percent on Tuesday, and between 12 and 13 percent for a further increase. For the December meeting, an increase is priced at around 78 percent.

Phil Camporeale, chief global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, writes that his team expects no move at the October meeting. His firm looks for around 50 basis points of further increases, spread out into 2027. From inside the central bank, New York Fed president John Williams set out the line that there is no rush.

How a rate-hiking cycle works on the Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has lived through falling or flat rates for most of its existence. A hiking cycle is new for this market, and it works through three channels.

First, the alternative: as the risk-free rate rises, a term deposit pays more, and an asset with no running yield has to make up that head start through its price. Second, financing: anyone invested on credit or with leverage pays more for it, and some of those positions get closed. Third, the dollar: higher rates usually support the US currency, and a strong dollar weighs on the dollar-denominated Bitcoin price.

That third channel hits euro-based holders twice. You pay in euros but convert a dollar price. If the dollar rises against the euro, your loss in euros is smaller than the dollar loss, and the other way round. At $82,708 and 73,652 euros, the implied rate is currently just under $1.123 per euro.

Funding of 0.0034 percent per eight hours equals 3.75 percent a year

The financing rate, known in trading as funding, is the payment that holders of perpetual futures make to each other every eight hours. When it is positive, buyers pay sellers, and the futures market trades above spot.

On the OKX exchange the rate for the Bitcoin perpetual stood at 0.00343 percent per eight hours on Wednesday morning. Annualised, that is around 3.75 percent. The number is notable because it sits almost exactly at the upper edge of the Fed’s target range. A leveraged long currently costs about as much as the risk-free rate in dollars, before the price has moved at all.

That leads to a calculation anyone can run: hold a long position for a year and you need roughly 3.75 percent of price gains just to pay the financing. Over a week that is 0.072 percent, over a month 0.31 percent. For a position meant to run to October 28, it is about 0.07 percent, or $58 per Bitcoin held.

Spot, ETN or perpetual: what makes the difference before October 28

There are three common routes into Bitcoin for European investors, and they behave differently ahead of a central bank date.

Buying real coins on an exchange licensed under the European MiCA regulation costs a one-off order fee and nothing after that. There is no liquidation price, and a ten percent move costs ten percent. Which providers hold a licence and what they charge per order is set out in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

An exchange-traded note, or ETN, tracks the price through a securities account and carries a running management fee. What counts is whether the paper is physically backed with coins or merely replicates the performance. That distinction, and the fee levels of the papers tradable in Europe, are set out in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany.

A leveraged perpetual future costs the financing described in the previous section and comes with a liquidation price. At tenfold leverage and an entry at $82,708, that price sits roughly ten percent away, around $74,400 before fees. Last night’s range was 2.39 percent. Four such nights in the same direction would be enough. What the individual platforms charge in financing is shown in our comparison of perp exchanges.

Our assessment: the inflow came from one provider, not from the market

From the newsroom’s point of view, Monday was weaker than the $526.7 million headline suggests. The evidence is above: IBIT took in $665.2 million, more than the entire net amount, FBTC gave up $83.6 million, and the month remains around $88 million in the red. The Ethereum funds lost $103.3 million the same day. A market buying broadly looks different.

Against that, the origin of the money does not matter for the price effect. A fund taking in $665 million has to buy coins, and that purchase meets the same order book as any other. The price responded with only 0.80 percent in 24 hours, and that says more about the state of the market than the inflow figure itself: there is enough supply on offer to absorb sums like these.

For the week up to the Fed meeting, that suggests fund flows are unlikely to lift the price out of its range. The October 28 decision is the date that can change it, and prediction markets expect no change there. The setback risk therefore lies less in the decision itself than in what Kevin Warsh says about December at the press conference.

Bitcoin before October 28: the line sits at $81,679

Three steps worth taking ahead of the central bank date:

1. Identify the form of your position. Are you holding real coins, a security or a leveraged contract? Only the third route has a liquidation price, and only there does holding cost money on an ongoing basis. The fee models of licensed venues are set out in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Recalculate the distance to your liquidation price. Divide your entry price by the leverage, and you get roughly the move that wipes out your position. At tenfold leverage that is ten percent, at fivefold twenty. Platform financing rates are set out in our comparison of perp exchanges.
3. Record your acquisition data. Purchase and sale dates determine how your gains are treated for tax in Germany. Use several venues and you lose track quickly; which tools take that over is shown in our comparison of tax tools.

On the downside, the 50-day average at $81,679 remains the level that decides whether the sideways phase holds. On the upside sits the 20-day average at $83,117. As long as the price stands between the two, any directional call is a bet on October 28.

(As of October 21, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)