Bitcoin price prediction: $430 million outflow pushes the 2026 ETF balance below zero

US bitcoin ETFs are back in the red for 2026. On Thursday investors pulled $430.2 million from the spot funds, bringing outflows since Monday to $869.8 million, according to the TFTC ETF tracker, which is based on SoSoValue data. Bitcoin traded at around $75,800 on Friday evening, 0.4 percent below the previous day and just over 9 percent below its level a month ago. What is established: the funds are selling, and the price sits between two important moving averages. Our assessment follows further down: the outflows are more a consequence than a cause of the weakness, but they are no all-clear either.

For the coming weeks this means bitcoin needs new buyers, and the fund business is not supplying them right now. Our Bitcoin price prediction sets out where the price range lies over a horizon of months. This article is about the short term, meaning the levels that will decide by the end of November whether the pullback continues.

Bitcoin ETFs: four trading days, $869.8 million in outflows

The week began with a heavy loss. On Monday, November 2, the spot funds lost a combined $398.6 million. That was driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with $405.3 million in outflows, partly offset by a small inflow at Fidelity. Tuesday added a further $115.6 million in outflows. Wednesday brought the only countermove, with $74.6 million in inflows; that day bitcoin closed at $80,052, according to the tracker's reference price. Thursday followed with $430.2 million, the largest daily outflow of the week, and the reference price fell to $76,101.

A spot ETF holds actual bitcoin. When investors withdraw money, the fund redeems shares and reduces its holdings; the coins released reach the market through the fund's trading partners. Converted at the reference price, around 5,650 BTC left the funds on Thursday alone. For comparison: since the halving in April 2024, mining produces 3.125 BTC per block, which at around 144 blocks a day amounts to about 450 new bitcoin. Thursday's outflow therefore equals a little more than twelve days of new supply.

Total assets in US bitcoin ETFs stood at $96.65 billion on November 5. At the end of 2025 the figure was still $113.29 billion, according to SoSoValue. The decline has two overlapping causes: the lower bitcoin price and the outflows themselves.

Fidelity rather than BlackRock: who sold on November 5

On Thursday the picture shifted. The largest single outflow came not from BlackRock but from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), at $199.9 million. IBIT lost $105.0 million, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) $49.9 million, Franklin (EZBC) $32.9 million, VanEck (HODL) $23.6 million and ARK 21Shares (ARKB) $18.9 million. No fund reported an inflow that day.

Across the four days, IBIT accounts for almost the entire outflow, at $806.5 million. Fidelity, by contrast, has been $50.3 million in positive territory since Monday, because the fund collected $236.7 million on Wednesday. Bitwise (BITB) recorded $37.1 million in inflows. This distribution argues against an orderly retreat by a single group of investors. More likely, large holders are turning their positions on a daily basis, depending on how technology stocks on the Nasdaq perform.

That fits the backdrop. On Thursday the Nasdaq slid after a sell-off in chip and AI stocks, and bitcoin fell with it. According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the $76,000 mark on Friday, even though the funds had lost $430 million the day before.

ETF balance for 2026: from a surplus in October back below zero

Adding up all daily flows since January 1, US bitcoin ETFs are now in negative territory. The TFTC tracker puts the figure at minus $431 million, while the SoSoValue analysis cited by BeInCrypto puts it at minus $502 million. The range arises because the two sources record individual days slightly differently. The direction is the same in both data series.

The course of the year shows how quickly the balance can turn. In early May there was a surplus of $3.20 billion, followed by a slump to minus $5.69 billion by July 13. With the recovery in August and September, the funds climbed back above zero at the end of September, and on October 21 the balance stood at plus $1.41 billion. October ended with $515 million in outflows, and the first week of November has used up the rest.

Compared with previous years: net inflows into the funds totalled $35.2 billion in 2024 and $21.4 billion in 2025. For the 2026 balance to end in positive territory, the remaining eight weeks would need more than half a billion dollars of inflows.

Bitcoin since the options expiry: from $80,000 to $75,800

On Thursday morning our prediction on the options expiry described the situation ahead of Friday's deadline. Bitcoin had closed at just over $80,400 on Wednesday and was still trading around $80,000. Since then, three things have changed. First, the zone around $80,000 has broken; Thursday's daily high of around $80,800 was the last time the price traded above that mark. Second, the price has fallen below the 100-day moving average, which on Wednesday was still clearly beneath it. Third, the expiry is over, so the derivatives market is no longer holding back the price through open positions on Friday. New are Thursday's ETF outflows, which had not yet been published that morning.

All told, bitcoin has lost just over 5 percent since the last prediction article. Friday's daily low on the Kraken exchange was $74,790, and the rebound carried the price back to $75,800 by the evening.

Bitcoin between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages: the levels at $76,943 and $73,192

A moving average is the mean of closing prices over a fixed number of days. The line smooths out swings and shows whether the price is trading above or below its own trend. Based on Kraken's daily closing prices, the 100-day moving average stands at $76,943 on Friday and the 200-day moving average at $73,192. The 50-day moving average runs considerably higher, at $81,989.

Bitcoin is thus in a corridor of around $3,750 between the two longer averages. The 100-day line has turned into a hurdle from below. As long as there is no daily close above it, it acts as the first resistance. The 200-day line is the level against which long-term investors measure the underlying direction. Bitcoin only rose above it in August and has not fallen below it since.

Below the 200-day line comes the August 21 low at around $73,000. Below that begins the summer range, in which bitcoin swung between $62,500 and $66,500 until mid-August. On the upside, the next level is $80,000, where the price last closed on Wednesday.

Sentiment at 28 points: the Fear and Greed Index slips into fear

The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me combines volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment and bitcoin dominance into a value between 0 and 100. On Friday it stands at 28 points, in the "fear" zone. On Thursday it was still at 50, or neutral. A move of 22 points in one day shows how strongly the sell-off on the Nasdaq has hit sentiment in the crypto market.

A low reading is not a buy signal. It only shows that many market participants have turned cautious. Historically, lows often fell in periods of great fear, but not every period of fear marked a low.

Scenarios to the end of November: recovery or a test of the 200-day line

Two paths for the coming three weeks can be derived from these levels.

Recovery: a daily close above $76,943

If bitcoin manages a daily close above the 100-day moving average and ETF flows turn positive on several days, the way back to the zone around $80,000 opens up. That is where Wednesday's close was, and where the price broke down on Thursday. A breakout above it would fully reverse this week's slide. The precondition is calmer technology markets, as bitcoin moved closely with the Nasdaq this week.

Setback: a daily close below $74,790

If bitcoin falls below Friday's low of $74,790, the 200-day moving average at $73,192 comes into focus. A daily close below it would be the first since August and would call the late-summer recovery into question. If further ETF outflows of several hundred million dollars a day persist, this scenario becomes more likely, because bitcoin from the funds would then flow into the market on a regular basis.

We are not naming a price target. Both scenarios depend on conditions that can be checked daily: the daily close relative to the two averages, and the ETF flows that the tracker adds after the US market close.

ETF outflows and price: the flows follow the price

Our assessment: this week's outflows are mainly a reaction to falling prices and weak technology stocks, not an independent trigger. Three observations from the data support this. On the only inflow day, Wednesday, bitcoin rose above $80,000. The large outflows came on Monday and Thursday, both days with a marked price decline. And the funds are taking turns: Fidelity collected money on Wednesday that flowed out again on Thursday.

Against this, the annual balance is tipping over again despite the late-summer recovery. Anyone who bought in via ETFs in October is now under water at today's price and could sell if weakness continues. That can amplify the move. We therefore regard the situation as tense, but not as a break in the trend, as long as the 200-day line holds.

US ETFs from Germany: the routes investors actually have

Retail investors in Germany generally cannot buy US spot funds such as IBIT or FBTC. They lack the key information document required under EU law, so banks and brokers block the purchase. Anyone who wants to hold bitcoin through a security turns to exchange-traded products such as ETNs, which are listed on Xetra or other German trading venues. Many of them are backed by bitcoin. Our guide to crypto ETFs in Germany gives an overview of products and costs.

The second option is buying directly through a crypto exchange or a broker licensed under MiCA, the EU regulation for crypto-assets. There the bitcoin belongs to you, and you can transfer it to your own wallet. The crypto exchange comparison shows which platforms are licensed in Germany and what they cost.

Holding period and ETN: the tax difference when selling at a loss

For investors in Germany, tax is what matters most in a weak market. Bitcoin held directly falls under private disposal transactions under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. If you sell after holding for more than a year, the gain is tax-free. Within that period, an exemption limit of 1,000 euros a year applies. Our overview of the crypto holding period summarises where the debated reform of the holding period stands.

When selling at a loss, timing is decisive. A loss within the one-year period can be offset against gains from other private disposal transactions. Once the period has expired, it has no tax effect. Anyone who bought in October 2025 near the all-time high of $126,080 is now around 40 percent down and has already passed the one-year mark. A sale would realise the loss, but it would no longer bring any tax benefit.

With ETNs, banks generally treat gains as capital income and withhold the 25 percent flat-rate withholding tax plus the solidarity surcharge directly. According to common practice, the one-year period does not apply there, and losses go into the bank's loss offset pot. Which route is cheaper depends on your holding period and your tax rate.

Bitcoin at $75,800: below $74,790, a test of $73,192 looms

1. Set your levels: Note the 100-day moving average at $76,943 and Friday's low at $74,790. A limit or stop order at one of these levels takes the decision out of the hectic moment. Exchanges with low order fees are listed in the exchange comparison.
2. Check your purchase dates: Go through your purchases by date and mark which bitcoin have been in your holdings for more than a year. Only then will you know whether a sale remains tax-free or produces a loss you can offset. The crypto tax tools help with this.
3. Choose your route: Decide whether you want to hold bitcoin directly or through an ETN, and compare the running costs. Our comparison of crypto brokers shows the offers for the securities route.

(As of November 6, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)