Bitcoin price $80,913: why ETF buyers are still in the red

On the record: Bitcoin trades at $80,913 on Wednesday morning, and the US spot ETFs bought their holdings at an average of roughly $81,500. The price therefore sits just below the entry level of the largest institutional buyer group in the market. Our own assessment follows further down: this line carries more weight on Wednesday than the evening interest rate decision, and the section setting out why closes this article.

Bitcoin price on Wednesday morning: $80,913 after a quiet night

The price stands at $80,913 on Wednesday morning, measured against CoinGecko market data. Over the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 1.72 percent. The overnight range was narrow: the low was $79,416, the high $81,159. Less than $1,750 separates the two, a little over 2 percent.

Over the week the price is down 2.06 percent. It remains almost 36 percent short of the record high of $126,080 set in October 2025. Those two figures alone describe a market without direction. The more interesting feature this morning is a line that appears on no chart.

The spot ETF cost basis line sits at $81,500

According to an analysis by the research firm Glassnode, reported on Tuesday by Yahoo Finance, the average acquisition price of the holdings in the US spot Bitcoin ETFs is around $81,500. At the current price of $80,913 the market is some $587, or 0.72 percent, short of putting those funds back in profit on average.

The figure is an average across every share bought since the products launched in January 2024 and not since redeemed. It says nothing about any individual investor. A buyer from the summer of 2024 is sitting on a handsome gain, a buyer from October 2025 on a loss of more than a third. The mean still matters to the market, because it describes the price below which the fund holdings trade at a loss as a group.

How a spot ETF cost basis is formed

A spot ETF holds real Bitcoin rather than futures contracts. When investors buy new shares, the fund has to buy in the market; when they hand shares back, it has to sell. The cost basis is the volume-weighted average of all those purchases. It rises when money arrives during expensive phases, and it falls only when buying happens in cheap phases or when expensively bought holdings flow out again.

That produces the link to the price. With Bitcoin below this line, the fund holdings sit at a loss as a group. Experience suggests the number of investors who exit at their entry price during a recovery then rises, because they want to get out without a loss. That is why such average lines often act as resistance: selling pressure appears above them that was not there before. It is not a law, but it is a pattern visible in earlier cycles.

To see which of these products can be bought from Germany at all, and which tax particularities apply, read our overview of crypto ETFs in Germany.

The inflows of the previous days: $110 million on Monday

The most recent reliable figure dates from Monday. On that day the US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net inflows of $110.34 million, reported by Coinomedia and picked up among others by finanzen.net. For Tuesday, Coinspeaker reported a further $149 million; that figure has not been confirmed by a second source so far, so we carry it only with attribution.

The contrast with the previous week is stark. On 22 and 23 October investors pulled roughly $773 million out of the same products. The week still closed with a gain, because inflows on the remaining days were larger. Those outflows did not materially lower the cost basis, because redemptions are settled pro rata across the entire holding rather than targeting the most expensive shares.

What has changed since Tuesday morning

In Tuesday's morning piece the price stood at $79,568, and the focus was on the levels around the options expiry on 30 October. Bitcoin has gained $1,345 since then, or 1.7 percent. The $80,000 mark, still under discussion as support on Tuesday morning, now sits below the price and held overnight into Wednesday.

Two things are new. First, at $81,159 the price traded above $81,000 overnight for the first time since Friday. Second, the cost basis line at $81,500 brings a level within reach that played no part on Tuesday, when the distance was too great. Friday's options expiry remains on the calendar but matters less this Wednesday than the interest rate decision.

The levels for this Wednesday: $79,416 below, $81,500 above

On the downside the overnight low of $79,416 is the first reference. Below it comes the round $79,000 mark, which caught the price repeatedly on Monday and Tuesday. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital names $76,540 as the threshold beneath which he would qualify his constructive view.

On the upside the cost basis line at $81,500 is the next reference, directly above the overnight high of $81,159. A close above it would be the first solid improvement in a week, because it lifts the fund holdings out of the red as a group. If the price stays below, nothing about the starting position changes, even if the daily balance looks green.

Fed decision at 8 p.m.: the policy rate stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent

The two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve's open market committee ends on Wednesday. The decision is published at 2 p.m. New York time, which is 8 p.m. in Germany; the press conference begins half an hour later. The dates are listed in the Federal Reserve meeting calendar.

The policy rate currently sits in a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. In September the central bank raised it by 0.25 percentage points, the first increase since July 2023. For this Wednesday futures markets largely expect a pause; Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg likewise does not anticipate a further increase in its October outlook.

For Bitcoin the tone afterwards counts for more than the decision itself. A signal pointing to further increases makes dollar liquidity more expensive and has historically weighed on assets without a running yield. If the central bank instead signals the end of the cycle, that headwind falls away. Price moves in either direction tend to concentrate in the minutes after 8:30 p.m.

Bull and bear case: Alex Thorn versus Jason Calacanis

Two voices currently sit strikingly far apart, and both are on the record by name. Jason Calacanis, the investor who identified the artificial intelligence boom early, expects a decline to $57,000 within twelve months. He also assumes that Bitcoin will not reach a new record high. He made the remark at a price of around $79,774.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, argues the other way. He considers the cycle low to have been reached in June and sees room up to $125,000, provided long-term holders do not sell on a larger scale. Below $76,540 he would withdraw that view. Both statements are forecasts by individual market participants rather than facts, and both come from the Yahoo Finance report of Tuesday.

Holding period and allowance: the calculation before a sale

For investors in Germany more hangs on the timing of a sale than the price. Under section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, gains from selling cryptocurrencies remain tax free if more than a year lies between purchase and sale. Sell earlier and the gain is taxed at your personal income tax rate.

Short-term sales carry an allowance of 1,000 euros per calendar year. Allowance here means a threshold: once it is reached, the entire gain becomes taxable, not merely the excess. On a gain of 1,001 euros, 1,001 euros are taxable, not one euro. Income from staking and lending falls under a separate limit of 256 euros. We track whether and when these rules change in our status report on the holding period reform; nothing has been decided so far.

In practice, before a sale on Wednesday that means checking the purchase date of each individual position rather than the average of your portfolio. The one-year period runs separately for every purchase, and the order of disposal follows the method you apply in your tax return. If you bought through regulated trading venues in Germany, the purchase dates are in the provider's trade history.

Our assessment: the cost basis line weighs more than the rate decision

In the view of this editorial team, the line at $81,500 is the more important figure this Wednesday. In favour of that reading: it describes a mechanism that works independently of the news, because as long as the fund holdings trade at a loss, every recovery meets investors who want out at their entry price. Also in favour: Monday's inflows of $110 million were positive but small, measured against the $773 million of outflows on 22 and 23 October.

Against it: an unexpectedly clear signal from the central bank in the evening can suspend any chart-based consideration for a day. Against it too is the thin evidence base, since the cost basis line comes from a single analysis and Tuesday's inflow figure is unconfirmed. That yields no buy or sell recommendation on our part, but a measure to watch: a daily close above $81,500 would say more than the reaction in the first minutes after the rate decision. Cryptocurrencies remain highly speculative and a total loss is possible.

Bitcoin on Fed day: below $81,500 the funds stay in the red

1. Note the two levels of the day, $79,416 on the downside and $81,500 on the upside, and compare them with the closing price in the evening rather than with the first reaction to the rate decision. To see where you can trade Bitcoin at which fees, look at our comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
2. Go through your positions by purchase date before you sell, and work out the one-year period separately for each purchase. For the programs that evaluate this automatically, see the comparison of crypto tax software and portfolio trackers.
3. Follow the spot ETF inflows over the coming trading days, because they shift the cost basis. For which of these products are accessible from Germany, see the overview of crypto ETFs in Germany.

(As of October 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)