Fed hike bets and $1.07 billion in ETF outflows: why bitcoin keeps falling

Bitcoin is falling because three forces are at work at the same time. Markets are firmly betting on a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve in December, money has been flowing out of US bitcoin ETFs for days, and the pool of stablecoins sitting on exchanges as buying power is shrinking faster than ever. At 23:03 UTC on November 14, 2026, bitcoin traded at $63,528 according to CoinGecko, 6.6 percent lower than a day earlier. The evening's figures at a glance are in our crypto news for November 14, and the live price is on our bitcoin price page.

Our overview why is bitcoin falling explains what typically lies behind sell-offs like this one.

This article examines each cause in turn, with source and timing, and shows how you can tell whether the picture is changing.

Why is bitcoin falling? Rate expectations for the Fed

The main driver comes from Washington. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a quarter-point rate hike at the December meeting stood at 88.5 percent on Saturday, with 11.5 percent for a half-point move. As recently as November 6, 23.7 percent of market participants had expected rates to stay on hold. That is reported by bitcoin.com, which adds that the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show similarly high readings. The federal funds rate currently sits in a range of 3.75 to 4 percent.

New data triggered the shift. Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent month on month in October against expectations of 0.3 percent. The US economy added 165,000 non-farm jobs, compared with around 65,000 expected. According to bitcoin.com, Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued for further tightening and even floated a half-point step; on top of that, Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel. Higher rates make bonds and fixed deposits more attractive, and money moves out of risk assets such as bitcoin.

ETF outflows: $1.07 billion in five trading days

US spot bitcoin ETFs are exchange-traded funds that actually hold bitcoin. When money flows out, the issuers have to sell bitcoin. According to Coinpaper, citing Farside Investors data, these funds lost a net $1.07 billion or so between November 9 and 13. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for the largest share, at about $908 million. Ether funds also shed $398.9 million over the same period. Bitcoin.com likewise cites the ETF outflows as a factor, along with uncertainty over whether MSCI will keep Strategy in its indices.

Stablecoin supply: record drop of $11.5 billion

Stablecoins are tokens pegged to the dollar; on crypto exchanges they are the money people buy with. Coinpaper quotes Coinbase Institutional as saying the combined supply of USDT, USDC and DAI fell by $11.5 billion in 30 days, the steepest decline on record. With fewer stablecoins in circulation, the market lacks the buying power to absorb waves of selling.

Liquidations: why bitcoin is falling so fast

The causes above explain the direction; liquidations explain the speed. When a leveraged long position is force-closed, the exchange sells automatically, the price drops further and triggers the next round of liquidations. As bitcoin broke below $64,000 in the evening, TokenPost reported $691 million in liquidations within one hour, $671 million of them on long positions. Over 24 hours, bitcoin.com puts the total at around $1 billion, including $382 million in bitcoin. The effect shows up in sentiment: the alternative.me Fear and Greed Index fell to 13, its lowest reading in 90 days.

Will bitcoin fall further? The levels below $63,500

There is no certain answer, but there are levels to watch. According to Coinpaper, the next support lies at $62,000 and $60,000. Below that comes the 12-month low of $58,566 from July 1, 2026. Bitcoin is 49.6 percent below its all-time high of $126,080 from October 2025. A conditional scenario: if expectations of a rate hike persist and money keeps leaving the ETFs, the pressure will stay. If ETF inflows return or fresh data weakens the case for a hike, the $66,000 to $68,000 zone is the first hurdle. Longer-term views are collected in our bitcoin price prediction.

Sell or hold? Trading bitcoin in a sell-off

If you want to trade, you can bet on either direction: long for a recovery, short for further losses. Leverage raises the risk sharply. At 10x leverage, a move of roughly 10 percent against you is enough to wipe out the margin; at 100x, roughly 1 percent will do it. A stop-loss caps the loss by closing the position at a set price. We compare MiCA-licensed platforms such as OKX, Bitpanda Fusion and Kraken in our overview of the best crypto exchanges. The decision is yours; leveraged products can lead to a total loss.

Bitcoin sell-off: what MiCA means for traders in the EU

For investors in Europe, the price slump changes nothing about the rules, but it does underline the value of a reliable trading venue. Under the MiCA regulation, crypto providers in the EU need a licence; in Germany, BaFin is the responsible supervisor. Anyone trading through a crash should know where their coins are held and whether leveraged positions are open there. Further background on the market situation is on our page why is crypto down.

Bitcoin crash: your next three steps

1. Check open leveraged positions and set a stop-loss; we compare futures platforms in our list of the best perp DEXs.
2. Compare the fees and licensing of your trading venue with the best crypto exchanges.
3. Keep an eye on the Fed's December meeting and on the $62,000 and $60,000 levels on the bitcoin price page.

(As of November 14, 2026, 23:05 UTC. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Trading with leverage can lead to the total loss of the capital invested.)