XRP price prediction: what happens to 473 million XRP after the Nasdaq vote?

Update (November 1, 2026): Armada Acquisition Corp. II shareholders approved the merger with Evernorth on September 30; Evernorth announced the closing on October 9, and the shares have traded on the Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN since October 12. At closing the company said it held around 473 million XRP, while gross cash proceeds of around $300 million before transaction costs came in well below the $1 billion order of magnitude cited earlier; XRPN closed at $14.20 on October 30. XRP did not hold the $1.50 level: no day has closed above it since October 6, the upper level of $1.5713 was never reached, and the lower level of $1.2833 was breached for the first time on October 17. On October 30 the daily low was $1.2032, and at 01:46 UTC on November 1 XRP cost $1.25 according to CoinMarketCap, around 17 percent less than on September 30.

XRP cost $1.51 on Wednesday evening, September 30, and the number that day turned on lay exactly one cent below that. Since September 22, $1.50 had been the line on which every trading day was decided. That day a date was added that has nothing to do with the chart: in New York, the shareholders of a special purpose vehicle voted on whether a treasury holding 473,276,430 XRP comes to the Nasdaq as a share. And on the morning of October 1 Ripple's monthly escrow window opened. Two dates in 24 hours, both with numbers, both with consequences for the quantity of XRP reaching the market. This article sorts out what among it can move the price, what counts for you in Germany, and where the levels lie to the upside and the downside. The running assessment sits on our XRP forecast.

What was decided in New York on September 30: 473 million XRP and the ticker XRPN

Up for the vote was the merger of Armada Acquisition Corp. II with Evernorth Holdings. Armada is a special purpose vehicle, a SPAC in the jargon: a listed shell with no business of its own that raises capital and then combines with a real company so that the latter is listed without a conventional IPO. The shareholder meeting was set for Wednesday at noon Eastern time, which corresponded to 6 p.m. in Germany. The deadline by which shareholders could redeem their shares already expired on September 28.

The vote passed, and since October 12 the merged company has traded on the Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN. According to the figures in the proxy materials, the company projected at least 473,276,430 XRP on its own balance sheet at closing. Ripple itself contributes 126,791,458 XRP of that, or 26.8 percent of the holding. Behind the plan, according to the FinanceFeeds report, stand the SBI Group, Pantera Capital, Kraken, GSR and Arrington Capital alongside Ripple. The US Securities and Exchange Commission declared the registration on Form S-4 effective on August 27. Evernorth expected around $1 billion in gross proceeds from the transaction at the time, the bulk of which was to flow into building the XRP treasury; at the closing on October 9 the company cited around $300 million in gross cash proceeds before transaction costs.

One figure in that list deserves a second look, because it shows what the entry point looks like. Evernorth bought 84,365,876 XRP on the open market, for around $214 million and at an average price of $2.5366 per token. At the September 30 price of $1.51 the same tokens were worth roughly $127 million. That was a paper loss of around 40 percent on this part of the holding before the share had even traded; at the November 1 price of $1.25 they are worth around $106 million, a paper loss of almost 51 percent. Anyone buying XRPN is therefore not buying a fresh treasury at market price, but a balance sheet with a history.

XRP price at $1.51 on September 30: $1.50 had carried almost every daily close since September 22

The price data in this section come from CoinGecko, as of Wednesday, September 30, shortly before 7 p.m. German time. XRP trades at $1.51, up 1.42 percent within 24 hours. Over seven days it is down 1.31 percent, over 30 days up 9.35 percent. The day's range ran from $1.48 to $1.54. Market capitalisation stands at $95.27 billion, turnover over the past 24 hours at $3.30 billion. The price is 58.6 percent below its all-time high of $3.65.

More interesting than the daily bar is how narrow the past few days have been. The daily levels since September 22 read $1.5350, $1.5713, $1.5011, $1.5340, $1.5681, $1.5273, $1.5165, $1.4959 and $1.4901. Nine values within a range of around 5.5 percent, and every single one of them within sight of $1.50. On September 28 the price slipped below that level, which we reported on that day; it has reclaimed it twice since. A level touched that often is not a curiosity but the price on which buyers and sellers currently agree. Which is precisely why one event with news value is enough to dislodge it.

Escrow on October 1: up to 1 billion XRP out of 31.98 billion held in trust

Escrow is not a marketing term at XRP but a function of the XRP Ledger. Ripple has placed a large part of its own holding into time-controlled contracts that open on the first of each month. Up to 1 billion XRP can be released; what is not needed has historically moved back into new contracts and is thereby locked again.

The quantities behind it are given in weekly report 39 from XRP Insights, as of September 26: 31.98 billion XRP sit in trust, which is 32.0 percent of the hard-capped total supply of 100 billion. A further 4.74 billion XRP sit in operational wallets. On the venues observed there were 21.14 billion XRP, a decline of 625.9 million over the reporting week.

Why the release is nonetheless more than a formality is shown by a simple calculation: 1 billion XRP corresponded to around $1.51 billion at the September 30 price. That was about 46 percent of the entire daily turnover of $3.30 billion. Even if only a fraction were actually sold, it would meet a market that does not absorb that order of magnitude in passing. How the release on October 1 unfolded in detail, we wrote up separately ahead of the date.

XRP ETFs hold 1.16 to 1.18 billion tokens: a good one percent of the fixed supply

The second source of demand alongside treasury companies is exchange-traded funds in the United States. The counts differ slightly, so here are both: XRP Insights reports 1.16 billion XRP across seven funds as of September 26, with assets of $1.76 billion. A tally from the end of September arrives at 1.18 billion XRP and around $1.82 billion. Both figures correspond to a good one percent of the fixed total supply of 100 billion XRP.

Inflows in the week from September 18 to 26 were positive at a net 34.0 million XRP, but uneven: an outflow of 716,000 XRP on Monday, an inflow of 12.7 million on Tuesday, 12.5 million on Wednesday, 9.9 million on Thursday, and another outflow of 473,000 on Friday. Cumulatively, the US spot products stand at around $1.79 billion of inflows.

For you in Germany there is a restriction here that most reports overlook: these funds are US products and are regularly not tradable for retail investors in this country through the usual brokerage route, because they lack the European investor information. The exchange route in Germany instead runs via certificates and exchange-traded notes, which we have sorted through in our overview of crypto ETFs in Germany. The US inflows are therefore a sentiment gauge for you, not a way to buy.

Two routes to XRP: the XRPN share against the token in your own account

Since XRPN listed on the Nasdaq on October 12, two very different things sit side by side. The token is the asset itself. The share is a stake in a company whose balance sheet consists predominantly of that asset. Three differences lie between them, barely noticeable in calm market phases and very noticeable in turbulent ones.

First, the premium. Shares in treasury companies rarely trade at exactly the value of their holdings. If the price sits above it, you pay more than a dollar for a dollar of XRP; if it sits below, you get a discount that can also persist. Second, the management. Evernorth is announcing an actively managed treasury, meaning purchases, sales and further financing. The convertible bonds already issued, $30 million at 4 percent interest maturing in 2031, are an example of how the shareholder structure can change. Third, the currency. A Nasdaq listing accounts in dollars, and your portfolio carries the exchange rate risk with it.

Holding period, exemption threshold, withholding tax: Section 23 and Section 20 side by side

The biggest difference between the two routes is not in the chart but in tax law, and for German investors it is the most tangible point of the whole subject.

If you hold XRP directly, Section 23 of the Income Tax Act applies, the private disposal transaction. If you sell within a year of buying, the gain is taxable, and at your personal income tax rate. In return there is an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year, in force since 2024, which aggregates all private disposal transactions. An exemption threshold is not an allowance: anyone above it with a gain of 1,001 euros pays tax on the full amount. After a holding period of more than a year the gain is tax-free. For allocating the units sold, practice calculates per wallet on a first-in, first-out basis.

A share such as XRPN, by contrast, falls under Section 20 of the Income Tax Act, that is, under investment income. There the withholding tax of 25 percent applies, plus the solidarity surcharge of 5.5 percent on that tax, together 26.375 percent, and church tax where applicable. The saver's lump-sum allowance is 1,000 euros per person per year, or 2,000 euros for joint assessment. There is no holding period here after which a gain would become tax-free. If the account sits with a foreign provider, nobody deducts the tax automatically, and the transaction then belongs in the KAP annex of the tax return. Which tools log the transactions cleanly is set out in our comparison of crypto tax tools. What is binding in the end is the advice of your tax adviser; this article does not replace it.

Buying XRP in Germany under MiCA: CASP licence, ETPs on the exchange, your own wallet

The European regulation on markets in crypto-assets has applied in full since December 30, 2024. MiCA requires every provider that trades or holds crypto-assets for clients to hold an authorisation as a crypto-asset service provider, called a CASP in the text of the regulation. It is granted by BaFin or another supervisor in the EU, and the authorisation then applies across the entire single market. Whether your provider holds one is stated in BaFin's company database and, as a rule, in the imprint. That is the first check, one that can be done in five minutes, and it is independent of how XRPN performs on the Nasdaq. Which trading venues are authorised in Germany and what they cost, we have set side by side in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

Custody at XRP comes with a peculiarity worth knowing when you open your first account of your own. An account on the XRP Ledger requires a base reserve of 1 XRP, which stays permanently tied up and cannot be sent. Every additional object in the ledger, such as a trust line or an escrow, ties up a further 0.2 XRP. At the November 1 price that is around $1.25 for the base reserve. Anyone transferring XRP to an exchange also needs the so-called destination tag, a number that assigns the deposit to the right client account. Without that tag the transfer lands in the provider's omnibus account, and retrieving it is laborious to hopeless.

Leverage on XRP: the liquidation price at 10x sits in the middle of the September range

Anyone wanting to play dates like these with a leveraged product should calculate beforehand rather than afterwards. Liquidation means the exchange closes the position by force as soon as the collateral deposited is used up. For a tenfold leveraged purchase, a decline of around ten percent is enough. From the September 30 price of $1.51 that threshold sat at about $1.359, before fees and financing costs are counted in. At fivefold leverage it sat at around $1.208. The price has since reached both thresholds: the first on October 8 with a daily low of $1.3217, the second on October 30 with $1.2032.

These numbers acquire their meaning through September: the monthly low was $1.2833 on September 16. A tenfold leveraged buy position opened at the start of September at the September 30 price level would not have survived that move. A fivefold leveraged one would have scraped through. Added to that is the financing rate, known in trading as the funding rate: a payment that flows between buyers and sellers of perpetual contracts at short intervals and can make a held position noticeably more expensive over days. Anyone trading such contracts will find the terms of the authorised providers in our broker comparison.

Two scenarios to mid-October: $1.5713 above, $1.2833 below

The following levels are derived from the price data of the 30 days to September 30 and are not analysts' price targets. What they describe is where the market had turned up to then.

In the benign case the merger is approved, the bulk of the escrow release moves back into new contracts as in previous months, and ETF inflows stay positive. The first serious hurdle is then the monthly high of September 23 at $1.5713, around 4.1 percent above the September 30 level. Above that begins the round area around $1.60, which was not reached once in September.

In the adverse case the vote is postponed or fails, and a larger part of the released quantity stays in motion. Then the day's low at $1.48 comes up for testing first, after that the monthly low of September 16 at $1.2833. That would be 15.0 percent below the September 30 price. Between the two scenarios lay a range of around 19 percent, and both hung on events that became known within 24 hours. That is precisely why position size carries more weight here than direction. What happened was a mix of both: the merger was approved, but after September 30 the price got no higher than $1.5472 (October 2) and by the end of October had fallen below the September low.

XRP after the Nasdaq vote: How to proceed now

1. Check the buying route and its authorisation. Look in the imprint or in BaFin's company database to see whether your trading venue holds a MiCA authorisation, and compare the fees before you move anything. The overview sits in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Note the holding period for each position. Write down the purchase date for every XRP position. Only then do you know which sale still falls under the one-year period and which no longer does. Tools that track this automatically are in our comparison of tax tools.
3. Work out the liquidation price before you use leverage. Enter your intended leverage and entry into your provider's calculator and hold the result against the September low of $1.2833 and the October low of $1.2032. If the distance does not fit, the leverage is too large. The terms are in the broker comparison.

(As of September 30, 2026, updated November 1, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)