Will the SpaceX Stock Price Crash? What Comes Next After the Post-IPO Slide

Elon Musk's SpaceX pulled off the largest IPO in history on 12 June 2026, and the debut lived up to the hype: shares priced at $135, opened around $150 and closed near $161 on day one, briefly valuing the company above $2 trillion. Less than a month later, the picture looks very different. $SPCX has drifted back down toward the $145–$150 zone, giving back almost every point of that first-day pop and sitting well below its 16 June intraday high of roughly $225.

That round trip — from a record blockbuster launch to a stock hovering just above its offer price — is why "will SpaceX stock crash?" has become one of the most searched questions in the market right now. Below we break down what is happening, why, and the realistic scenarios from here.

Why is the SpaceX stock price falling?

The slide is less a single catastrophe than a classic post-IPO cool-off colliding with an eye-watering valuation. A few forces are stacked on top of each other:

The debut pop was built on retail euphoria. SpaceX reserved an unusually large share of the offering — reportedly around 30% — for individual investors, and demand ran several times oversubscribed. That kind of frenzy tends to front-load buying, and once the initial rush fades, the price often gravitates back toward where the deal was actually priced. That is roughly what has happened here.

The valuation leaves little room for error. Even after the pullback, $SPCX carries a market capitalisation north of $2 trillion against negative trailing earnings. Bulls are underwriting Starlink's cash flow, a dominant launch franchise and the xAI/Grok AI angle years into the future. When a stock is priced for near-flawless execution, even neutral news can trigger selling.

Sector sentiment turned. Space and satellite peers have sold off in sympathy, and a broader risk-off tone across high-multiple tech has weighed on the newest, most speculative name in the group. Not being eligible for S&P 500 inclusion for at least a year also removes a source of forced index buying that some traders had been counting on.

What are analysts saying about SPCX?

Wall Street is, on paper, still constructive — but the range of opinion is extreme, which is itself a warning sign. Consensus sits at a "Buy," with average 12-month targets clustering somewhere in the low $200s depending on the data provider. Individual targets, however, span from around $115 on the low end to as high as $800 on the most aggressive bull notes, with at least one street-high call implying enormous upside.

That spread — a low-triple-digit bear case against a high-triple-digit moonshot — tells you the honest truth: nobody really knows how to value SpaceX yet. When targets disagree by a factor of five or more, the "average" price target is close to meaningless, and the stock is likely to stay extremely volatile. Notably, at least one prominent value investor has publicly called the listing one of the most overvalued in history and predicted an eventual collapse, while momentum-focused analysts see the next leg higher toward and beyond $250.

Will SpaceX stock crash? Three scenarios

Rather than pretend to know the outcome, it helps to frame the possibilities. None of these is a prediction — they are the paths the market is currently pricing between.

• Bear case — a genuine unwind. If the retail bid keeps fading, a lock-up or anti-flipping window expires and allows more supply onto the market, or a Starship setback or macro risk-off event hits, $SPCX could break below its $135 IPO price and keep going. Given the beta and daily swings the stock has already shown, a fast 30–50% drawdown from current levels is well within the realm of what a name this speculative can do. This is the scenario the "crash" question is really about.
• Base case — a long, choppy consolidation. The stock spends months digesting its valuation, ranging roughly between the IPO price and its debut highs while the business grows into expectations. Volatile, frustrating, but not a crash — the typical fate of a hyped mega-IPO once the dust settles.
• Bull case — the story reasserts itself. Strong Starlink numbers, Starship progress, momentum behind the xAI/Grok integration and eventual index inclusion pull buyers back in, and the stock retests and clears its former highs toward the upper end of analyst targets.

The uncomfortable reality: all three are plausible right now, and the stock can travel a long way in either direction before the fundamental picture is any clearer.

How to trade SpaceX stock price — in either direction?

Here is where many investors get stuck. If you think $SPCX is heading lower, simply owning shares does you no good — and if you think it is heading higher, you may want leverage or the flexibility to move fast. This is exactly the situation CFDs are built for, because they let you take a position in both directions: go long if you back the bull case, or go short if you think a crash is coming.

With XTB you can trade SpaceX ($SPCX) as a CFD — meaning you can open a long position to profit from a rebound, or a short position to profit if the stock falls, all from one account. XTB is a well-established, regulated broker with a fast, intuitive platform, transparent pricing and no minimum deposit, which makes it a practical choice whether you are positioning for the next leg up or hedging against the downside.

👉 Open your XTB account here and trade SpaceX long or short

Whatever your view on the crash question, the key advantage is optionality: you are not forced to pick "buy and hope." You can express a bearish or a bullish thesis — and manage your risk with defined position sizing — through a single regulated platform. Start trading $SPCX with XTB.