Shiba Inu price prediction: what 86 trillion SHIB on exchanges means

Shiba Inu trades at around $0.00000445 on Monday evening, November 9, after moving between $0.00000431 and $0.00000451 during the day (Kraken trading data). The real news of the day, however, comes from exchange balances rather than the price. According to CryptoQuant on-chain data, which U.Today reported on Monday afternoon, exchanges now hold 86 trillion SHIB, up from 85 trillion. Our Shiba Inu price prediction covers where the price could head over the coming months; this article sticks to the next few days.

The facts: the exchange reserve has risen, net inflows to exchanges reached 42 billion SHIB within 24 hours, and according to Etherscan the number of holders, at 1,698,454 addresses, has almost reached 1.7 million. Our assessment follows further down. The two figures pull in opposite directions, and in the editorial team's view the exchange reserve carries more weight for the coming days.

Shiba Inu price prediction on Monday: 86 trillion SHIB sit on exchanges

The exchange reserve is the amount of a token held on addresses belonging to known trading venues. It is treated as a pool that can be sold at short notice: anyone sending tokens to an exchange usually intends to trade them, and in falling markets that mostly means selling. A rising reserve is therefore not a price signal in itself, but it enlarges the supply that can hit the market on bad news.

Measured against a total supply of around 589 trillion SHIB, as listed by the data provider CoinPaprika, 86 trillion is just under 15 percent of all tokens. That is not an outlier for Shiba Inu. A large share of the tokens has always sat on exchanges, because many buyers never withdrew their SHIB to a wallet of their own. What matters is the direction. According to CryptoQuant, the average inflow per transaction rose by 606 percent on a seven-day moving average. So more deposits arrived, and they were larger, too.

U.Today reads this as a bearish sign and points to a relative strength index (RSI) of around 30. The RSI measures on a scale from 0 to 100 how one-sided recent price moves have been; readings around 30 are considered oversold. That is the counterargument that belongs in the same forecast. An oversold market with a full exchange inventory can keep falling, but it can also turn higher quickly if sellers stay away.

A turnaround since Sunday: from 20 billion in outflows to 42 billion in inflows

For regular readers, the shift is clearest against the weekend. On Sunday evening we reported here on large addresses pulling a net 20 billion SHIB off exchanges. Little more than a day later, the balance points the other way: instead of outflows, there are now net inflows of 42 billion SHIB in 24 hours. Outflows suggest holders are taking their tokens out of trading; inflows point to a readiness to sell.

The question from our last Shiba Inu forecast has also been answered. On Sunday morning SHIB stood at $0.00000446, and we had named $0.0000047 as the line for a sixth losing week. The week closed at $0.00000436 on Kraken, after opening at $0.00000470 on November 2. That is a drop of just over 7 percent and the sixth weekly loss in a row. On Sunday SHIB also briefly fell to $0.00000427, its lowest level since July 23.

The price has since recovered by about 2 percent. That does little to change the picture. Compared with the October 1 open at $0.00000575, SHIB is down around 23 percent, and U.Today even cites more than 28 percent since the start of October. The gap comes from the reference point; both figures point the same way.

1,698,454 holders: why the number of SHIB addresses offers little counterweight

The opposing force comes from holders. According to Etherscan, the blockchain explorer for Ethereum, where the SHIB token lives, 1,698,454 addresses held Shiba Inu on Monday. Since November 1, 2,025 addresses have been added, according to counts by U.Today and CoinTurk; 1,546 are still missing to reach 1.7 million. At the end of October the project had lost around 2,500 addresses within two days, so the new holders have only just made up that decline.

For the forecast, the holder count is a weak signal. An address with 1,000 SHIB counts the same as one with a trillion, and a new address is created as soon as someone moves small amounts. Both sources point out themselves that it is unclear whether real purchases are behind the increase. 2,025 new addresses in nine days works out at roughly 225 a day. Set against that are 42 billion SHIB that flowed to exchanges, net, in a single day.

Shiba Inu and the 20-day average: the levels above the price

The moving averages show where sellers last had the upper hand. Kraken's daily closing prices give the following picture on Monday: the 20-day average sits at $0.00000477, the 30-day at $0.00000490, the 200-day at $0.00000513 and the 50-day at $0.00000524. A moving average is the mean of closing prices over the stated number of days; when the price is below it, the trend over that period is pointing down.

SHIB trades below all four averages. The first hurdle is Monday's intraday high at $0.00000451. Above that lies the zone around $0.0000047, where the week of November 2 opened and which served as the line for the losing week on Sunday. Only a daily close above the 20-day average at $0.00000477 would end the series of lower highs that began in late September.

Shiba Inu downside: $0.00000427 and the yearly low as support zones

On the downside, Sunday's low at $0.00000427 is the next level. If it breaks, the yearly low comes into view. Its exact level depends on the data source: Kraken records lows of $0.00000405 on June 25 and $0.00000406 on July 17, while our Monday lunchtime article, based on other price data, cited a low of $0.0000041 on July 17. The zone between $0.0000040 and $0.0000041 is therefore the support area where buyers have stepped in twice this year.

From the current price, that is a little more than 8 percent away. For a token that has lost around 18 percent over the past 30 days, that is not a large gap. Bitcoin fell about 10 percent over the same period and stands at around $74,700 on Monday evening, so SHIB is falling almost twice as hard as the benchmark. Sentiment matches: the Alternative.me Fear and Greed Index stands at 29 points, in fear territory, after 25 points on Saturday.

US inflation data on Tuesday: the release that meets a full exchange reserve

On Tuesday, November 10, at 14:30 German time, the US Labor Department publishes consumer prices for October. The date matters for the whole crypto market because it shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy. If inflation comes in higher than expected, the prospect of lower rates fades, and risk assets usually come under pressure first. Memecoins such as SHIB are among the riskiest.

This is where the exchange reserve comes in. 86 trillion SHIB on trading venues means that some holders are already prepared to sell before the release. A disappointing print would therefore meet supply that does not first have to be moved onto exchanges. The reverse also applies: if the data turns out favourable and bitcoin turns higher, an oversold market with an RSI around 30 could gain quickly, and tokens meant for a short-term sale would stay put.

SHIB custody: what the exchange reserve means for your own tokens

Beyond the price question, the exchange reserve has a second side that directly affects investors in Germany. If you leave SHIB on an exchange, you legally hold a claim against the provider, not the tokens themselves. Since the EU's MiCA crypto regulation, providers that hold crypto assets in custody in Germany need authorisation as a crypto-asset service provider, and they must keep client assets separate from their own. You can check whether your exchange holds this authorisation in the register of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) or with BaFin. An overview of authorised providers is available in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.

If you plan to hold SHIB for the long term and have no intention of trading before Tuesday, you can withdraw the tokens to a wallet of your own. Because SHIB is an ERC-20 token on Ethereum, withdrawals incur network fees in ETH, which many exchanges charge at a flat rate. For small holdings, that fee quickly eats a noticeable share of the value; for larger holdings, a hardware wallet is the safer option. If you want to trade in the short term, you need the tokens on the exchange and should use limit orders rather than market orders there, because prices can jump around 14:30 on Tuesday.

Holding period and losses: the tax effect of selling SHIB before the yearly low

If you are considering a sale now, you should know the holding period. In Germany, gains from cryptocurrencies are tax-free under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act if more than one year passes between purchase and sale. Within that period, gains are taxable once all private disposal gains in a year together reach the exemption limit of €1,000. Losses within the period, in turn, can be offset against gains from other private disposals. Where the debated reform of the holding period stands is summarised on our page on the crypto holding period.

A loss-making sale is therefore more than a price decision. If you bought SHIB less than twelve months ago and are in the red, you can realise the loss and offset it against gains from other coins in the same year. If you have held the purchase for more than a year, you can no longer use a loss for tax purposes. A clean record of all purchases and sales, of the kind tax tools generate from exchange data, saves questions from the tax office later.

Our assessment: exchange reserve beats holder count until the 20-day average falls

In the editorial team's view, the data for the coming days points more towards another test of Sunday's low at $0.00000427 than towards a recovery. The evidence: 86 trillion SHIB sit on exchanges, net inflows came to 42 billion SHIB in 24 hours, SHIB trades below all four moving averages from 20 to 200 days, and the sixth losing week in a row is complete. With Tuesday's release, this supply meets an event that can move the whole market.

The oversold condition argues against it. An RSI around 30 and a fear index of 29 points are levels at which declines often lose momentum, and the holder count is growing slightly despite the falling price. If inflation comes in lower than expected, a rise to the 20-day average at $0.00000477 would be possible. Only a close above it would overturn our assessment. This is an assessment of the situation, not a recommendation to buy or sell; with a memecoin like SHIB, a total loss cannot be ruled out either.

Shiba Inu price prediction: until 14:30 on Tuesday, the $0.00000427 zone counts

1. Sort out custody: Check whether your exchange holds a MiCA licence and compare providers in the overview of regulated crypto exchanges. If you hold for longer, the hardware wallet comparison helps you find suitable self-custody.
2. Set your levels: Fix $0.00000427 on the downside and $0.00000477 on the upside, and use limit orders before Tuesday. Fees and order types differ by provider; the exchange comparison shows the differences.
3. Document for tax: Note the purchase date and cost basis of every SHIB position before you sell. A tool from our comparison of crypto tax software calculates the holding period and loss offsetting from your exchange data.

(As of November 9, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)