Ethereum Price Prediction: 2,982 New ETH in a Day, Only 10 Burned

What is confirmed: between Saturday evening and Sunday evening at 18:40 German time, a net 2,982 new ether entered circulation, according to ultrasound.money. Fee burning over the same period destroyed only 10.05 ETH, worth roughly $22,400. Our assessment follows further down: the growing supply is no reason to panic, but it shifts the burden onto buyers, and buyers are exactly what the market lacks right now.

The price itself has barely moved. On Sunday evening ether trades at $2,234 according to CoinGecko, or about €2,006. The 24-hour range ran from $2,223 to $2,243. Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our Ethereum price prediction. This piece is about a number that never appears on the price chart yet counts every single day: how much ether is created and how little of it disappears again.

New ETH versus burned ETH on Sunday

Since the switch to proof of stake in September 2022, new ether is created only as a reward for validators who have locked up their coins and propose or attest blocks. At the same time, the network has destroyed the so-called base fee of every transaction since August 2021. Both flows run continuously, and only their balance decides whether supply grows or shrinks.

Sunday's figures show how lopsided that balance currently is:

Of the roughly 2,990 ether the protocol paid out to validators on Sunday, the burn recovered only one three-hundredth. Over 30 days, supply grew by 86,751 ETH. Annualised, that is an increase of just over one million ether, or 0.86 percent of the total stock of 122.2 million ETH.

Why the Ethereum fee burn has almost stopped working

The mechanism is simple. Every transaction pays a base fee per unit of gas used, and that base fee is destroyed. When demand for block space rises, the base fee rises automatically and more ether is burned. When demand falls, the fee drops towards zero. On Sunday evening the gas price on mainnet stood at around 0.04 gwei. A simple transfer therefore costs less than one cent.

For users that is pleasant. For the supply calculation it means Ethereum is not short of block space at the moment. A large share of trading and payments runs on layer-2 networks, which bundle their data and store it cheaply on mainnet. Plenty of activity remains there, but little burned fee.

A rough calculation shows how far the road back to a shrinking supply is. At unchanged usage, the base fee would have to rise roughly 300-fold, to around 12 gwei, for the burn to offset daily issuance of about 2,990 ETH. Levels like that were last seen in hectic market phases, not in a quiet week like this one.

ETH supply up 1.68 million since the Merge

A look back puts the daily figure into context. On September 15, 2022, the day of the switch, 120.52 million ether were in circulation. On Sunday evening the figure is 122.20 million. Supply has therefore grown by 1.68 million ETH, or 1.4 percent, in just over four years. Over the same period the network burned about 2.02 million ETH, and 4.64 million ETH since burning began in August 2021.

The “ultrasound money” narrative that convinced many buyers in 2022 and 2023 therefore only holds in phases of heavy use. Without the burn, supply today would be more than two million ether larger. With it, supply still grows, just more slowly than before the Merge, when miners received a multiple of today's amount every day. If you want to know more about the period before, you will find the story in our piece on Ethereum mining after the Merge.

About $6.7 million of buying pressure needed every day

For the price, supply is only one side. Sunday's 2,982 new ETH are worth about $6.7 million at the current price. Over 30 days, the net new coins add up to about $194 million. Not every validator sells its reward; many leave it staked. But whatever is sold has to be bought by someone for the price to hold.

That is precisely the weakness of recent weeks. US exchange-traded ether funds most recently reported a sixth consecutive week of outflows; our article on the Ethereum price at €2,000 describes the situation. When the largest new buyers of 2024 and 2025 are net sellers, a growing supply weighs more heavily than in a phase of inflows.

Since our last prediction on Saturday, the price has hardly changed: it showed about $2,233 then and $2,234 today. That piece focused on the pause of the Glamsterdam upgrade ahead of the Hoodi testnet, which you can read under Eight gas traps halt Glamsterdam. What is new since then is the supply side: at 10 ETH burned in a day, it is as weak as it rarely gets.

The ETH price levels between $2,192 and $2,570

Three zones matter for the coming days, all derived from the price data of the past 30 days:

• $2,192 is the 30-day low. A daily close below it would break out of the range in which ether has oscillated since late October.
• $2,000 is the round number below, about 10 percent under the current price. It currently equates to about €1,800.
• $2,400 to $2,486 on the upside: ether last traded above $2,400 on November 5, and $2,486 was the price exactly 30 days ago. The top of the range sits at $2,570.

Against bitcoin, too, ether remains weak. One ETH costs 0.0295 BTC. The high for the year on January 20 was 0.0361 BTC, the low on June 7 was 0.0248 BTC. Ether is therefore closer to the low than to the high.

Our assessment: as long as the base fee sits at fractions of a gwei, supply grows by just under one percent a year, and that increase needs buyers. The figures above support this: a 0.3 percent burn on Sunday, six weeks of fund outflows, and an ETH/BTC ratio in the lower third of the annual range. Against it stands the fact that 0.86 percent annual inflation is small on its own, and that part of the new coins never reaches the market because it stays staked. In the newsroom's view, supply is therefore no trigger for a crash, but a headwind that makes a recovery above $2,400 harder without fresh inflows. This is not a buy recommendation; with cryptocurrencies a total loss is possible.

Staking yield minus dilution

The growing supply does not affect all holders equally. If you only hold ether, you own a share of total supply about 0.86 percent smaller at the end of the year. If you stake, you receive the new coins yourself. By our own calculation, issuance of about 2,990 ETH a day comes to roughly 1.09 million ETH a year. Spread across the just over 36 percent of all ether that is staked, that gives about 2.5 percent a year, before user tips are added.

What matters is what remains after deductions. Exchanges and staking services keep part of the rewards as commission. At a 25 percent commission, 2.5 percent shrinks to just under 1.9 percent; after subtracting dilution of 0.86 percent, the real increase in your share is about one percent. At a 10 percent commission it is about 1.4 percent. The differences between providers, the lock-up periods for exiting and the commissions are set out in our comparison of staking platforms. How long the entry and exit queues have been recently is in our analysis of the staking queue.

When choosing a provider, it pays to look at its licence. The EU's MiCA regulation has applied since the end of 2024, and providers with European authorisation are listed in a public register. Our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges offers an overview.

Staking rewards in Germany: tax and the one-year holding period

For investors in Germany, staking has a tax dimension that many underestimate. Staking rewards count as other income under Section 22 No. 3 of the German Income Tax Act. The relevant value is the euro value on the day they are received. They remain tax-free only as long as all income of this kind stays below the exemption threshold of €256 a year; once that is exceeded, the entire amount is taxable.

If you later sell ether, the one-year holding period applies. According to the Federal Ministry of Finance's letter of March 6, 2025, staking does not extend this period to ten years. Gains from sales within one year remain tax-free up to an exemption threshold of €1,000 a year. Whether and when these rules change is tracked on our page on the status of the holding period reform. If you need to document many small staking inflows properly, suitable software saves time; prices and features are in the comparison of crypto tax tools.

Ethereum supply: it only shrinks again from about 12 gwei

Sunday's calculation comes down to three numbers. Around 2,990 new ether are created every day, about 10 are currently burned, and supply therefore grows by 0.86 percent a year. The calculation would only tip if the base fee on mainnet rose permanently to around 12 gwei, meaning considerably more demand for block space than today.

Until then, staking is the way for long-term holders to offset dilution, with provider costs and tax obligations as deductions. For the price, $2,192 on the downside and $2,400 on the upside remain the lines at which the coming days will show whether new buyers absorb the growing supply.

(As of November 8, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)