Ethereum price prediction: Binance holds just 2.9 million ETH, the level that decides

Ether trades at around $1,827 on Sunday morning, roughly 1,658 euros, after falling as low as $1,713.65 overnight. At the same time, the data provider CryptoQuant reports a figure that says more about the outlook for the coming weeks than the overnight low: the addresses of the Binance exchange now hold only around 2.9 million ETH, the lowest in almost five years.

What is established: the Binance reserve has shrunk by almost 42 percent since July 2025, and US spot ether ETFs lost just under $399 million in the week to Friday, though on Friday itself they booked a small inflow for the first time in six trading days. Our assessment follows further down. In short: an empty exchange shelf makes ether scarcer, but only carries the price once money flows back in through the funds as well.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is set out, with scenarios, in our Ethereum price prediction. This article sticks to the short term: what lies behind the reserve figure, why two Binance numbers seem to contradict each other, which levels have broken since Saturday and which steps investors in Europe can review now.

Binance reserve at 2.9 million ETH: what the metric measures

The exchange reserve counts how many coins sit on the wallet addresses that analytics firms attribute to a trading platform. When it rises, investors are sending more coins to the exchange than they withdraw; that is seen as a precursor to selling, because coins are usually moved there to be sold. When it falls, coins are moving into private wallets, staking contracts or custodians.

According to a report on crypto.news on November 15, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost now puts the ether balance on Binance at about 2.9 million ETH. In July 2025, as ether was heading towards $5,000, it was still more than 5 million. His colleague Amr Taha had put the figure at 3.08 million ETH on November 2. In just under two weeks, a further 180,000 ETH or so have flowed out, worth a good $300 million at today's price.

Across all tracked exchanges, the same report says around 14.5 million ETH remain, against almost 35 million in 2020. Net flows over the past 30 days were mostly negative, meaning more was withdrawn than deposited. Darkfost sees this as support for the thesis that investors are accumulating, but concedes that withdrawals do not yet prove new purchases.

One single case shows how sharply the figure reacts: according to the analytics service Lookonchain, one address withdrew 34,601 ETH from Binance on November 9, worth around $73.75 million at the time. A move like that alone shifts the reserve by more than one percent.

Proof of reserves versus on-chain data: why the ether figures diverge

A closer look reveals a contradiction. Binance regularly publishes a proof of reserves. It shows how many coins customers hold on the platform and demonstrates that the exchange actually owns that amount. Between November 4 and November 12, customers' ether balances there rose from 3,446,090 to 3,482,001 ETH, an increase of 35,911 ETH or 1.04 percent.

The on-chain reserve is falling while customer balances are rising slightly, and both can be true at once. Analytics firms only see addresses they can clearly attribute to the exchange. If Binance holds ether in staked positions, with custody partners or on new addresses, that portion no longer shows up in the reserve, even though it still belongs to customers. Over the same period, customers' USDT balances fell by around 928.2 million tokens. Some investors have therefore withdrawn purchasing power rather than swapping it into ether.

For the outlook, that means the 2.9 million ETH signal less freely tradable supply at the largest exchange, but are no proof that anyone is buying on a large scale there right now. The thesis only becomes more robust once demand visibly returns as well, and right now that shows most clearly in the ETFs.

Ether since Saturday: $1,841 broken, overnight low at $1,715

On Saturday morning ether still stood at around $1,896. In our article on the Lighthouse gap ahead of Glamsterdam, we had named $1,841 as the next level to the downside and $1,982 to the upside. The lower level has since broken: overnight into Sunday the price fell as low as $1,713.65 according to CoinGecko, with the daily high at $1,909.75. A range of almost $200 within a single day shows how thin the order book is at weekends.

Since the overnight low, ether has recovered by around 6.5 percent but remains a good 3.5 percent below its level on Saturday morning. Over seven days it is down 18.6 percent, over 30 days 25.8 percent. It is around 63 percent short of its record high of $4,946. The $1,982 mark is out of reach for now, and the overnight low has been added as a new level on the downside.

Over the past 24 hours ether fell 4.3 percent, almost twice as much as bitcoin, which trades at about $65,500 on Sunday morning and lost 2.5 percent. That weakness against the largest cryptocurrency has run through all of November.

Ether ETFs: $398.9 million in outflows, back in the black on Friday

US spot ether ETFs remain the strongest pacesetter. In the trading week of November 9 to 13, they lost a combined $398.9 million or so, based on daily figures from data provider Farside Investors. On Monday alone $184.6 million flowed out, on Wednesday $144.8 million and on Thursday $70.5 million.

On Friday the picture narrowly turned: the funds booked a net inflow of around $2.3 million, ending a run of six outflow days, as Tokenpost reported, citing the daily data. The inflow was carried by the Fidelity fund FETH with around $11.6 million, while around $9.3 million left the small Grayscale fund ETH. That is not yet a turning point; at an ether price of just over $1,800, $2.3 million is not even 1,300 ETH.

The mechanism behind it is simple. When an investor pulls money out of a spot ETF, the issuer has to sell ether or hand it to a market maker who sells it into the market. An outflow day of $184.6 million equals around 100,000 ETH at the current price, a good half of what Binance has lost in reserves over two weeks. As long as the funds keep selling, that selling pressure more than offsets the scarcer supply on the exchange.

Ether levels: the overnight low at $1,715 and the summer ceiling at $1,933

The level that matters in the coming days is the overnight low at around $1,715. That is where the first buying came in after the wave of liquidations, and a second test would show whether that demand holds. If ether closes below it on a daily basis, the next documented zone is only around $1,566: ether closed at that level on June 26, according to CoinGecko's daily prices, its lowest close of the past seven months.

On the upside, the path is split in two. Between mid-July and mid-August, ether moved in a closing range of around $1,843 to $1,933. That zone is now resistance, because investors who bought in the summer often sell once they are back at their entry price. crypto.news names $1,838 to $1,868 as short-term resistance and $1,790 to $1,814 as support. Above that sits the 200-day moving average, which we calculate from CoinGecko's daily prices at around $2,143, a good 17 percent above today's price. The 200-day average is the mean of the closing prices of the past 200 days; many funds use it as the line between an uptrend and a downtrend.

Two analysts quoted by crypto.news see a chance of a bottom forming. Joep Gerla points to the third oversold signal this year; after the first two, in February and June, ether rose towards $2,400 and $2,800. The trader CrediBULL Crypto considers a longer-term bottom possible, but ties it to bitcoin stabilizing. Both views are opinions, not forecasting models; they assume the pattern of earlier cases repeats.

Our view: empty exchange shelves only support ether once the ETFs turn

In the editorial team's view, the reserve figure points to a more favourable medium-term starting position than the price suggests. Less ether on the largest exchange means that when demand returns, it meets smaller supply, and the price can react faster than with a full exchange. The evidence for this is the 2.9 million ETH on Binance, the decline of almost 42 percent since July 2025 and the 14.5 million ETH across all exchanges, less than half the 2020 figure.

Three things argue against it. First, the customer balance in Binance's proof of reserves is growing slightly, so the reserve partly measures a reallocation rather than a withdrawal. Second, the ETFs lost almost $400 million in a single week, and a single inflow day of $2.3 million does not reverse that trend. Third, ether trades a good 17 percent below its 200-day average; a downtrend rarely ends without a second test of the low.

Our conclusion: as long as the funds do not report inflows on several days in a row, the overnight low at $1,715 remains the level that decides the short term. If it holds on a second test as well, the scarce-supply thesis gains weight.

Storing ether in Europe: hardware wallet, exchange or staking

The outflow from exchanges also has a practical side for investors in Europe. Anyone who leaves ether on a trading platform legally holds a claim against the provider for its return, not the coins themselves. Since the MiCA crypto regulation took effect, providers in the EU need authorization; whether a provider has it is shown in the public register of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA. Our crypto exchange comparison gives an overview of authorized platforms, fees and custody.

Anyone who wants to hold their ether themselves needs their own wallet. A hardware wallet is a small device that stores the private key offline and only releases transactions after confirmation on the device. Which models exist and what they cost is shown in our hardware wallet comparison. The recovery phrase belongs on paper or metal, never in a photo or the cloud.

A third route is staking. You lock up ether so the network can confirm blocks and receive a reward in ETH in return. Many exchanges and specialized services offer this, with different fees and lock-up periods; our staking comparison sets the providers side by side. The reward does not change the fact that the ether price fluctuates: a yield of a few percent a year does not make up for a 25 percent price drop in one month.

Leverage on ether: $2 billion in liquidations in 24 hours

Leveraged positions amplified the rapid fall to $1,715. A liquidation is the forced closing of a leveraged position by the exchange once the margin posted no longer covers the losses. On Sunday morning, cryptoticker's article on crypto liquidations put the total for the past 24 hours at around $2 billion, mostly long positions in bitcoin and ether.

Anyone betting on ether with leverage should know how far their own liquidation price is from the overnight low. With 10x leverage, a move of around ten percent against the position is enough to wipe out the margin, and ether moved more than ten percent between high and low overnight into Sunday alone. With low or no leverage, a position survives such swings; with high leverage, the time of day often decides by chance.

Ether at $1,827: without ETF inflows, the $1,715 low is what counts

1. Review how you buy: if you want to buy more, choose a provider with MiCA authorization and compare fees and spreads in the exchange comparison before placing an order.
2. Decide on custody: larger holdings do not belong on an exchange permanently. How to move ether to your own device is explained in the hardware wallet comparison.
3. Put idle ether to work: if you hold ether for the long term anyway, compare rewards, fees and lock-up periods in the staking comparison, and record the purchase date and price of every position for your tax records.

(As of November 15, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Crypto assets can lose value up to a total loss.)