Ethereum price prediction: Foundation wallet sells for a fourth time, ETF outflows 87 times larger

The wallet that analytics service Lookonchain attributes to the Ethereum Foundation sold another 2,000 ETH on Friday, November 13. Proceeds: about $3.87 million in the USDS stablecoin, swapped in two orders of 1,000 ETH each via the CoW Swap exchange. It is the fourth round of sales since October 12. On Friday evening one ether cost about $1,937, or around 1,758 euros, a good four percent less than 24 hours earlier.

What is documented: the wallet has so far sold 4,000 ETH for about $8.03 million in November, while $695.9 million flowed out of US spot ether ETFs in the same month up to November 11, roughly 87 times as much. Our assessment follows further down: the foundation's sales are a sentiment signal, but fund flows move the price. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is set out in our Ethereum price prediction.

Ethereum Foundation: who is behind wallet 0x5CBC

The address begins with 0x5CBC. Its link to the Ethereum Foundation is an attribution by Lookonchain that several trade publications have adopted; the foundation has not confirmed this particular address. The Ethereum Foundation is the Swiss non-profit organisation that funds research, developers and grant programmes around Ethereum. It pays for this work largely out of its ether holdings and therefore has to sell regularly.

According to crypto.news, the sale took place on Friday morning. Data service Onchain Lens describes the trade as a swap of 2,000 ETH into about 3.87 million USDS. USDS is a stablecoin pegged to the dollar, in other words a token designed to stay worth one dollar as steadily as possible. Swapping ether for a stablecoin locks in the dollar value and hands off the price risk.

Timeline of the sales since October

The first round came on October 12. On October 26 the wallet sold 2,785 ETH for about $6.42 million. After a two-week pause it sold 1,000 ETH on November 10 and another 1,000 ETH on November 11 for about $2.03 million. With Friday's sale, November's total comes to 4,000 ETH. Since October 26, according to Lookonchain, the total is 6,785 ETH for about $14.45 million.

How much ether is still held at the address is disputed. Estimates range from about 11,000 ETH, roughly $21.3 million, to about 21,247 ETH, or around $41.1 million. The spread depends on which sub-addresses the services include.

Ethereum Foundation sales: what happened to the price after the first three rounds

Lookonchain points to a pattern: after each of the three earlier sales ether fell markedly, by 9 percent after October 12, by 7.7 percent after October 26 and by 10.4 percent after the round on November 10. These numbers describe a correlation in time, not proof of cause. In all three cases the wider market fell too, and in November the ETF outflows were running at the same time.

A simple calculation shows why the wallet alone can hardly move the price. On Friday, according to CoinGecko, about $14.8 billion worth of ether changed hands within 24 hours. The foundation's sale of $3.87 million amounts to about 0.03 percent of that. cryptoticker.io made this calculation itself on November 13 from the daily figures cited.

So why does the market react at all? Many traders read foundation sales as a signal: if the organisation that knows Ethereum best is swapping ether for dollars, that looks like a lack of confidence in rising prices. For the foundation, by contrast, the swap is a budget matter. It pays salaries and grants in fiat, not in ether. Both readings stand side by side, and the data does not settle the question.

Ether ETFs: $695.9 million of outflows in November

The heavier burden lies with exchange-traded funds in the US. According to SoSoValue data, spot ether ETFs lost a net $695.9 million in November up to and including November 11. Seven of eight trading days ended with outflows; only November 4 brought an inflow of $53 million. The funds' assets under management fell from $13.22 billion to $11.65 billion between October 30 and November 11.

On November 11 alone, $144.8 million flowed out according to Farside Investors, $129.8 million of it from BlackRock's ETHA fund. Figures for November 12 diverge: SoSoValue reports a net outflow of $70.57 million and thus the sixth straight day of outflows, while Farside's preliminary count stood at about $8 million. There were small inflows at 21Shares with $1.21 million and at Invesco with $0.40 million.

That produces the comparison BeInCrypto drew on Friday: $695.9 million of ETF outflows against $8.03 million from the foundation's sales, a factor of 87. Adding SoSoValue's figure for November 12 lifts the outflow to about $766 million and the factor to about 95.

Since Thursday: ether loses the $2,000 mark

On Thursday evening, in our analysis of the Nvidia shock, we recorded a price of about $2,019, or 1,827 euros, with the day's low at $1,983 at the time. The question was whether the round $2,000 mark would hold. It did not. On Friday ether fell to about $1,890 according to Kraken's price data, while CoinGecko shows the day's low at $1,905. In the evening the price stood at around $1,937, and the day's high was just above $2,020.

Over seven days the loss adds up to about 13 percent. In euro terms ether has lost about 70 euros per coin since Thursday evening. What is new since then is a wave of liquidations: according to CoinGlass, about $288 million of ether futures were forcibly closed within 24 hours, around $259 million of them bets on rising prices.

Liquidation explained simply

A liquidation happens when a leveraged position falls so far into the red that the collateral posted is no longer enough. The exchange then closes the position itself. When prices are falling, these forced closures sell additional ether into the market and accelerate the decline. If you trade with leverage yourself, you will find platforms and their margin rules in our overview of perp exchanges.

Ethereum whales: who sold and who bought on Friday

The foundation was not the only large address in the market. According to Lookonchain, one whale withdrew about 8,876 ETH from the lending protocol Aave and swapped 16,700 ETH for $30.94 million of the USDT stablecoin. A month earlier the same address had bought 8,631 ETH at an average of $2,743. Another address, funded via Tornado Cash, sold 1,499.5 ETH at an average of about $1,998.

On the other side, address 0x4cee added 10,380 ETH for about $19.91 million. It now holds 25,498 ETH at an average entry price of $2,382 and, at Friday's price, is sitting on a loss of about $11.3 million. The same day therefore shows both: capitulation among October buyers and fresh buying by addresses that had been waiting for lower prices.

Ether support and resistance: $2,000, $1,890 and $1,875

The $2,000 level had been support since August, a price zone where buyers had reliably stepped in before. Now that it has broken, it works the other way round as resistance: anyone who bought at $2,000 and is now underwater is happy to sell at break-even if the price returns there. Only a close above Friday's high of about $2,020 would mark the break as a false signal.

On the downside, the first level is Friday's low between $1,890 and $1,905, depending on the exchange. Below that lies $1,875, which we named on Thursday as the lower edge of the decision zone. That level has not been tested since. On the upside, $2,100 remains the ceiling from the previous day's analysis; from Friday evening it is a good eight percent away.

Ether to the end of November: back above $2,020 or a test of $1,875

In the benign case, ETF flows turn positive again, as they last did on November 4. Ether would then have a chance to reclaim the $2,000 mark and close above Friday's high of $2,020. The next target would be $2,100. Further foundation sales in the order of 1,000 to 2,000 ETH would change little in that picture.

In the weak case, outflows from the funds continue. Friday's low at $1,890 then comes into view, and below it $1,875. If that level also gives way, there is no visible support from recent months' prices until the next round zone at $1,800. Another wave of liquidations in leveraged positions would amplify the move.

Our assessment: for the direction over the coming days, fund flows matter more than the foundation's wallet. The factor of 87 between the two and the 0.03 percent share of daily volume support that view. Against a quick recovery: six straight days of outflows show no sign of ending, and October buyers sitting on losses at prices around $2,000 could sell there. In favour of a bottom forming: buying by large addresses such as 0x4cee. We therefore expect a sideways phase between $1,875 and $2,020 rather than a straight run in either direction, as long as the ETF data does not turn.

How gains and losses on ether are taxed depends on the country you live in; our comparison of crypto tax software helps you record the date, amount and price of every trade.

When it comes to buying, the EU's MiCA regulation has applied since the transition periods ended. Exchanges and brokers need a licence as crypto-asset service providers, which they show in the register of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA. Which providers hold this licence is shown in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges. The US spot ETFs themselves cannot be traded directly by retail investors in Germany; ether ETPs on German exchanges serve as a substitute, as explained in our overview of crypto ETFs in Germany.

Ethereum below $2,000: ETF flows decide the way back

The foundation's fourth sale delivers a headline but hardly any volume. If you want to make sense of the coming days, look first at the daily net flows of the US ether ETFs, then at Friday's low between $1,890 and $1,905, and only after that at wallet 0x5CBC. A close above $2,020 would put the break of the round number into perspective; a break of $1,875 would confirm the weakness.

(As of November 13, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, and a total loss is possible.)