Ethereum price prediction: five strong Octobers since 2018, but the last two closed lower

Ether began October 2026 without direction and costs around $2,690 on Sunday morning, October 4 (according to CoinGecko), almost exactly what it cost at the start of the month. For the Ethereum price prediction the question is whether October lives up to its reputation. We evaluated the monthly candles from Binance since 2018, and for Ether the result comes out more mixed than it does for Bitcoin.

Ethereum’s October record since 2018

Five of eight Octobers ended higher for Ether. The standout was 2021 at plus 42.9 percent, followed by 2022 at plus 18.4 percent, 2023 at plus 8.6 percent, 2020 at plus 7.4 percent and 2019 at plus 0.7 percent. The years that ended lower were 2018 at minus 14.7 percent, 2024 at minus 3.2 percent and 2025 at minus 7.2 percent (monthly Binance candles against USDT, October 1 to 31).

The order stands out: the two most recent Octobers both ended lower. Bitcoin, by contrast, has closed six of eight Octobers higher since 2018, as our October record for Bitcoin shows. The month owes its reputation above all to Bitcoin.

What is coming up for Ether in October 2026

On October 6 the Sepolia testnet moves to the next network version. Nothing changes for Ether on the main network that day, and according to the Ethereum Foundation a date for the main network has not yet been set, as we explained in our article on the Sepolia fork. A smooth test run is still the precondition for that main-network date moving closer.

Fund flows argue against a tailwind: the US spot ETFs on Ether lost money on three consecutive trading days at the end of September and on October 1, while the Bitcoin funds gained again. The figures are in our analysis of the ETF outflows.

Ethereum price prediction: the levels for October

Ether sits above its 50-day average (around $2,465) and its 200-day average (around $2,315), both calculated from CoinMarketCap daily closes. It is around 46 percent short of the record high of $4,946 set on August 24, 2025 (CoinGecko).

Since September 21 every daily close has fallen between $2,669 and $2,775. The upper level is therefore the first hurdle on the way up, and the lower support sits at $2,645, the close of September 20. October opened on Binance at $2,686, in the middle of that range.

Ethereum: your next three steps

First, do not read the October record as a promise. Five good Octobers stand against three poor ones, and the two most recent were poor. Second, watch the range between $2,645 and $2,775, as a daily close outside it is the next signal. Third, anyone holding Ether for the long term can stake the coins and earn a running return; providers and exit waiting times are set out in our comparison of staking providers.

Gains on Ether held for less than a year are taxable on sale in Germany once the annual allowance of €1,000 is exceeded. Crypto-assets fluctuate heavily and a total loss is possible. This article evaluates past price data; it is not a forecast and not a recommendation to buy or sell Ether.