Ethereum price prediction: 15 percent down in October, weaker than bitcoin

What is confirmed: late on Thursday evening, October 29, 2026, Ethereum costs around $2,272, 3.6 percent less than 24 hours earlier, leaving it 15.4 percent below its level on October 1. Bitcoin lost 5.6 percent over the same period. Our assessment follows further down: for an ETH holder the more important number is not the dollar price but the ratio between the two prices, and that now stands at 0.0288.

All price figures in this article come from CoinGecko, as of shortly before midnight on October 29, 2026. Where the price may head over a horizon of months is covered in our Ethereum price prediction.

Ethereum price falls 15.4 percent in October, bitcoin only 5.6 percent

On October 1 Ethereum stood at $2,684.71. The month's highest daily level followed on October 5 at $2,725.91. Since then it has gone downhill, with a daily low of $2,243.10 in the night to October 30. From the start of the month to now, that adds up to a loss of 15.4 percent.

Bitcoin had a different month: $83,576 on October 1, $78,872 now, with its high also on October 5 at $86,490. That is a loss of 5.6 percent. The gap between the two amounts to 9.8 percentage points in four weeks. An ETH holder has therefore lost against the dollar this month and, on top of that, against the largest cryptocurrency.

Trading volume supports the finding. Around $16.9 billion of Ethereum changed hands in the past 24 hours, compared with $9.8 billion the day before. A rise of a good 70 percent while the price is falling means the move is driven by selling rather than by a thin market.

The ETH/BTC ratio falls to 0.0288, its lowest level since July 19

The ETH/BTC ratio is the Ethereum price divided by the bitcoin price. It tells you how much bitcoin one ether is worth and strips out whatever the dollar is doing. At $2,272.08 for Ethereum and $78,872 for bitcoin, the division gives 0.0288.

The last time the value was lower was on July 19, 2026, at 0.0287. On October 1 the ratio still stood at 0.0321, which is 10.3 percent higher than today. The low of the past year fell on June 7, 2026 at 0.0258, the high on December 11, 2025 at 0.0361.

The range between 0.0258 and 0.0361 is the band within which this ratio has moved for twelve months. At 0.0288, Ethereum currently sits in the lower third of that band. It is still a good ten percent away from the yearly low.

What has shifted since our staking calculation of October 28

On October 28 CryptoTicker calculated here that Ethereum's staking yield, at around 2.63 percent a year, is below the dollar interest rate (Ethereum price prediction of October 28). Ethereum traded at $2,347 that day.

Since then $75 has gone, a good three percent. The ratio to bitcoin stood at 0.0291 on October 28 and has since slipped to 0.0288. The calculation from two days ago has therefore not resolved itself but sharpened: the interest gap is now joined by the price lag against bitcoin.

The levels that now matter for the Ethereum price

On the downside, the first level is the daily low of $2,243. It held in the night to October 30, the price turned higher there and now stands $29 above it. If it breaks, the next reference lies around $2,250 from August: on August 20, 2026 Ethereum closed at $2,252 and moved higher afterwards. Below $2,243 the price would be lower than at any point since the summer.

On the upside, the daily high of $2,373 is the first hurdle, around 4.4 percent above the current level. Above that sits the 50-day average at $2,530. That average is 11.4 percent above the price, and as long as Ethereum trades below it, the medium-term direction points down.

For the ratio to bitcoin, two values matter: 0.0287, the July 19 level that now sits directly below the price, and 0.0258, the yearly low. There is no level from the past twelve months between the two.

How to calculate the ETH/BTC ratio yourself in two minutes

This number needs no tool and no subscription. Take the current Ethereum price in dollars and divide it by the current bitcoin price in dollars. Both prices are shown on every exchange interface and every price service. Note the result once a week with the date in a spreadsheet.

After four weeks this column shows something the dollar price hides. If both prices fall and the ratio stays the same, a market move is hitting all cryptocurrencies evenly. If the ratio falls as well, Ethereum is losing weight of its own. That is exactly what happened in October, from 0.0321 to 0.0288.

The same calculation works for any other cryptocurrency against bitcoin. If you hold several positions, one column shows you which of them lost more than the overall market in the downturn and which lost less. Many portfolio trackers display this ratio directly; by hand it takes less than two minutes.

Swapping Ethereum for bitcoin restarts the German holding period

If you conclude from the lag that you should swap Ethereum for bitcoin, check the tax calendar first. In Germany, exchanging one cryptocurrency for another counts as a private disposal under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. The swap is therefore a sale of one asset and a purchase of another, with all the consequences.

The first consequence concerns the holding period. If the swapped ether was bought less than a year ago, any gain on it is taxable once the exemption limit is exceeded. The second consequence often weighs more in a falling month: for the newly bought bitcoin, the one-year period starts again on the day of the swap. If you have held ether for ten months and swap now, you wait another twelve months for the new position to become tax-free. We track the current state of the political debate about this period on our page on the crypto holding period.

With losses the calculation reverses: a realised loss from a swap within the one-year period can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year. Whether that works in an individual case depends on the year's other transactions and belongs with a tax adviser, not in an article.

Staking yields 2.6 percent a year, the October lag is almost four times as large

Ethereum pays staked ether a reward from the protocol, currently around 2.63 percent a year according to our calculation of October 28. The process is explained on the Ethereum Foundation's staking page: whoever deposits ether helps secure the blockchain and receives new ether in return.

Measured against October, the reward looks small. A lag of 9.8 percentage points against bitcoin in a single month compares with a return of 2.63 percent over twelve months. The annual yield therefore covers a good quarter of what the price comparison cost in four weeks.

Then there is the lock-up. Staked ether cannot be moved minute by minute: depending on the provider and network load, hours to days pass between a withdrawal request and free access. If you hold staked ether and are betting on a quick reallocation, you should know your provider's waiting time before you need it. Terms differ markedly, so a look at our staking comparison is worthwhile before getting started.

Our assessment: the ratio holds the answer, not the dollar price

In the editorial team's view, the dollar price of $2,272 is the weaker measure for the question of whether Ethereum keeps falling behind bitcoin. Three pieces of evidence from this article support that: the ratio has fallen from 0.0321 to 0.0288 since October 1, it is below its July 19 value, and the lag of 9.8 percentage points arose in a month in which both prices fell. A shared downward move explains the dollar loss, but not the gap.

What follows from this is a task of observation, not an instruction to act: as long as the ratio stays below 0.0291, the October 28 level, the lag persists. If it rises above that, the situation has turned, even if the dollar price keeps falling.

Three points that argue against it

First, the ratio is a short data series. Twelve months between 0.0258 and 0.0361 contain several phases in which Ethereum caught up again after falling behind. The current level lies within that range, not below it.

Second, October 29 was a day with an exceptional news flow. That same evening CryptoTicker reported on a suspected outflow from a hot wallet of the Binance exchange (Binance hack, October 29, 2026) and on the fact that an address linked to the incident holds large amounts of ether according to information so far (Ethereum crash, October 29, 2026). Neither had been fully clarified at the time of this article. A single event of this size can distort a price ratio for days without anything having changed in Ethereum's position.

Third, the ratio only measures two prices against each other. It says nothing about blockchain usage, fees, the number of developers or upcoming protocol steps. If you hold Ethereum because of these things, the ratio does not answer your question.

ETH/BTC at 0.0288: three steps before the month closes

Two trading days remain until the end of the month. These three steps can be done in that time:

1. Record the ratio. Divide the Ethereum price by the bitcoin price and write down the result with the date. Do the same on October 31. Two values are enough to see whether the lag has grown or shrunk by month end.
2. Find your purchase dates. Download your exchange's transaction report for Ethereum and check when the individual positions were bought. Without that date no question about the holding period can be answered. Which trading venues provide the reports and in what form is shown in our exchange comparison.
3. Clarify the staking waiting time. If you hold staked ether, ask your provider how long a withdrawal currently takes. That information belongs in your notes before a decision is due, not after.

(As of October 29, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)