Chainlink slips below its 100-day line as long bets shrink by a third

What is established: Chainlink stands at $11.11 on Monday evening, November 2, below its average of the past 100 days, which by our calculation is $11.36. On Sunday LINK still closed at $11.65, above that line. At the same time, the ratio of long to short accounts at the exchange OKX has fallen from 3.18 to 2.10 since October 24. Our assessment follows further down: the market is unwinding its one-sided bets on rising prices, and the next reliable level only comes at the 200-day line around $10.03.

The price data come from CoinGecko. Over 24 hours LINK is down 3.2 percent, over 30 days just under 20 percent. The daily high was $11.45 and the daily low $11.02. Bitcoin gave up 1.3 percent over the same period, ether 0.6 percent. LINK is therefore falling considerably harder than the two largest coins, without any bad news of its own.

Chainlink below the 100-day line: where LINK stands on Monday evening

The 100-day line is the simple average of daily closing prices over the past 100 days. It smooths out the noise of individual days and shows whether a coin is trading above or below its own normal price over the medium term. We calculated it ourselves from CoinGecko's daily values, excluding the current day. The result for LINK on November 2:

• 20-day line: $11.88
• 50-day line: $12.62
• 100-day line: $11.36
• 200-day line: $10.03

The price is thus below three of the four lines. Only the 200-day line still lies beneath it. The distance to it is $1.08, or 9.7 percent. The order is noteworthy: the 50-day line sits above the 100-day line because September was still strong, with a high of $15.44 on September 29. Since then LINK has lost almost 28 percent. The 30-day high dates from October 5 at $14.27, and the 30-day low from October 30 with a daily close of $10.60.

Looking further back shows the range of a whole year: on November 11, 2025, LINK cost $16.36; on July 1, 2026, only $7.19. Today's price sits almost exactly in the middle of that range. The token remains around 79 percent below its all-time high of $52.70 from May 2021.

What the 100-day and 200-day lines say about LINK

Moving averages are not laws of nature. They become effective because many market participants watch the same lines and place buy or sell orders there. A line that once held as a floor loses force when the price falls through it several times. That is exactly what has happened with the 100-day line: LINK oscillated around it in the second half of October, fell well below it on October 30, came back and is now slipping again.

The 200-day line has a different history at LINK. In the summer it was far above the price, when the token stood at $7.19 on July 1. Only with the recovery in August and September did the price overcome it. It has not been tested since. If LINK falls to $10.03, that would be the first test since the summer. If the line holds there, that would point to a consolidation within an intact uptrend since July. If it breaks on a daily closing basis, that trend is technically over.

Between the two lines lies a second level you can keep an eye on: the October 30 low at $10.60. On that day LINK fell 11 percent when Binance briefly had problems. We described it at the time in our article Chainlink drops 11 percent. That low has held since, and it is the first point at which buyers have to show whether they can absorb the decline.

Long-short ratio at OKX: from 3.18 to 2.10 in ten days

The second look goes to the futures market, meaning perpetual futures. These are futures contracts with no expiry date that traders use to bet with leverage on rising (long) or falling (short) prices. The exchange OKX publishes daily how many accounts in LINK contracts are positioned long and how many short. The ratio counts accounts, not money: a value of 2.10 means that for every account with a short position there are 2.1 accounts with a long position.

The series of recent days shows a clear direction:

• October 24: 3.18
• October 27: 2.83
• October 29: 2.31
• November 1: 2.01
• November 2: 2.10

The ratio has fallen by a good third in ten days. At the beginning of October it was already similarly low, at 2.11 to 2.24; retail investors then built up their long positions into the falling price. That build-up is now being reversed.

Open interest and funding: the Chainlink futures market in detail

The long-short ratio alone does not say whether long positions are being closed or new short positions opened. Open interest, the total value of all outstanding contracts, helps here. At OKX it stood at $28.1 million for LINK on October 24 and $31.8 million on November 2, an increase of a good 13 percent. Because the ratio fell over the same period, the combination suggests that mainly new short positions were added. At the beginning of October, however, open interest was still considerably higher at $38.4 million, so leverage in the market has fallen over the month as a whole.

The funding rate is the balancing payment that one side pays the other in perpetual futures so that the contract price stays close to the spot price. At OKX it currently stands at 0.01 percent per eight-hour period for LINK. That is the base rate the exchange applies without any notable price premium. This figure shows no overheating on the long side of the kind often seen before larger sell-offs.

On October 30, the day of the slump to $10.60, trading volume in LINK contracts at OKX rose to $106.6 million, more than double the days before. On Monday it was $38.6 million. Today's decline is therefore happening on normal turnover, without a wave of liquidations.

Since October 31: what has changed in the LINK price

We last reported on Chainlink on October 31, when Chainlink 24/7 began valuing tokenised shares at weekends as well. LINK closed at $11.45 that day, and on Sunday the price rose to $11.65. The 100-day line thus held for two days. With the decline to $11.11 on Monday it has been lost again, and half of the recovery after October 30 has been used up.

New is the view of positioning: on October 31 the long-short ratio at OKX stood at 2.05, today it is 2.10. The unwinding of long bets has therefore come to a halt for now, while the price keeps giving way. The new short positions supplied the pressure, not a sell-off by holders.

Hanwha and CCIP: why the news flow does not carry the Chainlink price

Chainlink is not short of news. On October 29 the Korean firm Hanwha Investment & Securities announced, according to a press release from Chainlink, that it is using Chainlink's data standard and the CCIP protocol for cross-chain transfers as infrastructure for its tokenisation platform. CCIP is used to transfer tokens and messages between different blockchains. Chainlink is to supply prices and net asset values for the products issued. The platform is still being built, however, and Korea's framework for tokenised securities only starts in February 2027.

Announcements like this improve the outlook for future fees on the network, but they bring no revenue today. In the short term, the LINK price depends more on the overall market and the futures market than on partnerships. That was already evident on October 24, when Chainlink entered Korea's 68 billion market and the price nevertheless fell to $11.47. The news builds the story for the coming years; traders' positioning determines the next few days.

Our view of the Chainlink price after the break of the 100-day line

From the editorial team's point of view, the drop below the 100-day line is a warning signal but not yet a break in the trend. In favour of that view: the 200-day line at $10.03 lies below the price, the funding rate shows no overheating and volume is normal. Long bets have already been cut by a third, so a large part of the leverage is already out of the market. Against it: LINK has been falling harder than bitcoin and ether for four weeks, the 50-day line at $12.62 is far above the price, and new short positions are being added. As long as LINK closes below $11.36, the burden of proof lies with the buyers. A daily close below $10.60 would open the way to the 200-day line. This is an assessment of the situation, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is set out with several scenarios on our Chainlink prediction page, linked at the very top of this article. There you will also find the assumptions behind the targets.

Leverage on LINK: liquidation and the 2:1 limit for retail investors

If you trade LINK with leverage, you should know the distances. For a long at five times leverage, a decline of around 20 percent is mathematically enough to use up the collateral posted. Because of fees and the maintenance margin, the minimum amount the exchange requires in the account, liquidation actually comes slightly earlier. From $11.11, that threshold would be just under $9. At ten times leverage it is around $10, roughly at the 200-day line. Exactly where the price ought to find support according to textbook technical analysis, such positions would be forcibly closed. Those sales can push the price below the line in the short term.

In Germany, a leverage limit of 2:1 applies to retail investors for crypto CFDs from EU-regulated providers, set by the European supervisor ESMA and adopted by BaFin. You only get higher leverage on platforms outside these rules or on decentralised exchanges for perpetual futures. If you trade there, check who the counterparty is and how the platform calculates the liquidation price. An overview of providers with fees and leverage rules can be found in our comparison of the best perp DEXs, and regulated CFD providers in the overview of the best crypto brokers.

If you buy without leverage, you face a different problem: you cannot be liquidated, but you bear the full price loss. A staggered entry in several parts spreads the entry price across possible tests of the levels at $10.60 and $10.03. Where you can buy LINK in Germany and at what fees is shown in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges, featuring providers that hold a MiCA licence.

Holding period and exemption limit: the tax rules for selling LINK at a loss

Many investors bought LINK in September at between $13 and $15. Anyone selling now realises a loss. For tax purposes, LINK in Germany is a private asset under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. If you sell within a year of buying, a gain is taxable provided that all private disposal gains for the year reach the exemption limit of €1,000. If the total stays below that, everything remains tax-free. After a holding period of more than a year, the gain is generally tax-free. Whether this rule will remain from 2027 is open; we follow the state of the debate on our page on the reform of the crypto holding period.

A loss from a sale within the one-year period can be offset against gains from other private disposal transactions in the same year, for example from bitcoin or ether. That does not work with gains on shares. If a loss remains, you can have it assessed in your tax return and carry it forward to later years. The order matters: when you sell, the tax office generally assumes that the tokens bought first are sold first (the FIFO method). If you bought LINK in several tranches, work out before selling which tranche goes out and whether it is already tax-free.

A tool that consolidates all purchases and sales across different exchanges helps with this. A selection with prices can be found in our comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers.

Chainlink at $11.11: below $10.03 the last support is missing

The break of the 100-day line shifts the focus downwards: $10.60 as the October 30 low, $10.03 as the 200-day line. On the upside, LINK first has to close above $11.36 again before the 20-day line at $11.88 comes into play. Three steps for today:

1. If you hold LINK with leverage, recalculate the liquidation price of your position and compare it with $10.60 and $10.03. Fees and leverage rules of the platforms are shown in the comparison of the best perp DEXs.
2. If you want to add without leverage, spread your entry over several parts and use an exchange with a MiCA licence and low fees from the comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
3. If you are considering selling at a loss, check the purchase date and price of each tranche and how it offsets against other crypto gains of the year, for example with a tool from the comparison of crypto tax tools.

(As of November 2, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)