Bitcoin price prediction: 9.8 percent short of year-end, what it means for investors

The record shows this: Bitcoin is quoted at $80,446 on Wednesday afternoon, and on New Year's Eve 2025 the price closed at $88,364. Between those two figures lie $7,918, or 9.8 percent, and 64 calendar days remain to close the gap. Our assessment follows further down: arithmetically the gap is small, yet the calendar to the turn of the year is tight, and for German investors more than a chart year runs out on December 31.

The calculation to December 31

The year-on-year comparison is the one metric that appears in every annual review on New Year's Eve, and it currently stands at minus 9.0 percent. The reference is the closing price of December 31, 2025 at $88,364. Getting back to that level from $80,446 takes no all-time high, merely a rise of 9.8 percent. That sounds like little, and in a market that swung between $80,153 and $81,636 within 24 hours it is still no foregone conclusion.

The counter-calculation belongs with it. The year's low was $58,566 at the end of June. From there Bitcoin has gained 37.4 percent without reaching the year line. October alone has cost 3.8 percent so far, measured from the month's opening at $83,640. The all-time high at $126,080 remains 36.2 percent away. Where the price can point over a horizon of months is set out in our Bitcoin price prediction.

The year-end reference date is more than a formality

For the chart, a calendar year is an arbitrary boundary; for reporting and for many portfolios it is not. Funds and asset managers are measured at year end, annual reviews quote the yearly return, and in German tax law the calendar year is the accounting unit for private disposals. That makes December 31 relevant twice over for investors in Germany, once as a measuring point and once as a deadline.

The range of Fed week, two days later

On October 27, our Bitcoin price prediction on the range in Fed week centred on an expected swing of around 6 percent. The price stood at $80,029 back then. Since then $417 has been added, or 0.5 percent. The $80,000 level has held over those two days, while the 30-day high at $86,490 remained untouched. The range named at the time has therefore played out in its lower third.

For the remaining stretch that means one thing above all: the volatility expected ahead of the rate decision has so far not discharged in either direction. The 30-day low at $80,029 and the daily low at $80,153 sit so close together that the market is currently treating the $80,000 line as a floor.

The comparison with November and December 2025

A look at the last comparable case puts expectations in order. On October 31, 2025 Bitcoin was quoted at $108,409. By December 31, 2025 it was $88,364. The final two months of last year therefore cost 18.5 percent. That is no argument against an annual gain in 2026, but it does refute the widespread assumption that the last two months are reliably strong for Bitcoin.

The range is what matters in this comparison. Anyone who bought on October 31, 2025 was 18.5 percent down two months later. A move of 9.8 percent upwards sits arithmetically well within what the remaining stretch of a year can produce for Bitcoin. The direction is not something the comparison tells us.

Four price levels with an origin instead of round numbers

Four price levels can be justified for the remaining stretch, and each has an origin instead of being a round number.

• $80,029 is the low of the last 30 days. It was reached on October 27 and sits 0.5 percent below the current price.
• $81,636 is Wednesday's daily high. Above it begins the zone in which the price was still trading two weeks ago.
• $86,490 marks the high of the last 30 days. It sits 7.5 percent above the present level and therefore on the way to the year line.
• $88,364 is the year line itself, the closing price of December 31, 2025. Only above it does 2026 stand in positive territory.

The order is instructive. The 30-day high lies between the current price and the year line. An annual gain therefore requires the market to recover the October high first and then add another 2.2 percent. Both within 64 days is possible, yet it calls for two steps rather than one.

What the futures market is pricing in for the remaining stretch

The perpetual futures contract on Bitcoin at the OKX exchange currently pays a funding rate of 0.0061 percent per eight-hour period. Annualised that is around 6.7 percent, which buyers pay to sellers. The funding rate is the adjustment that ties the futures price to the spot price: if the futures contract trades above the spot market, the long positions pay, and in the reverse case the short positions do.

A positive value of this magnitude describes a market with a slight overhang on the buy side, though without excess. For comparison: in last year's upward phases the funding rates regularly ran at twice and three times that. Open interest in the same contract comes to 31,163 Bitcoin, around $2.51 billion at the current price.

The ratio of accounts is shifting slightly

For every two accounts holding a long position there is one account at the same exchange holding a short. A week ago that ratio was 2.16, by now it is 2.0. There is therefore slightly less buy-side overhang than in mid-October, without the balance having tipped. For a move of 9.8 percent upwards, a far more one-sided positioning on the sell side would be the better fuel, because short positions are forced to buy back when prices rise.

Dominance, sentiment and what they do not say

Bitcoin accounts for 59.48 percent of the valuation of the entire crypto market, Ethereum for 10.46 percent. The overall market stands at $2.717 trillion and has lost 2.0 percent within 24 hours, while Bitcoin itself gained 0.24 percent. Dominance is rising in this constellation because the rest of the market is weaker, not because Bitcoin is strong. Anyone reading dominance figures as a buy signal regularly confuses those two cases.

The fear and greed index stands at 51 points and therefore in neutral territory; the day before it was 48 and before that 50 points. Three days without a swing in a week containing a rate decision is remarkably unremarkable. The data are at the Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me. A neutral reading delivers no signal; it merely rules out the two extremes in which counter-moves most often set in.

In the network itself, the next mining difficulty adjustment is due on Thursday, by current estimates 6.7 percent upwards, on the basis of around 1,105 exahash per second of computing power. For the 64 days that is a footnote with one consequence: if the effort per block rises while the price moves sideways, miners' margins fall and their selling pressure increases.

The turn of the year is also a tax deadline

Here lies the part of the remaining stretch that a chart does not show. In Germany, gains from selling Bitcoin are private disposals under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. From that follow three deadlines, all tied to the calendar year, and 2026 is a year with a minus sign, so a year in which losses can arise.

The holding period is one year. Anyone holding Bitcoin for longer than twelve months sells the gain tax free. Anyone who bought before October 28, 2025 is already past that boundary with those units. We track the state of the political debate around this rule on an ongoing basis in our overview of the crypto holding period and its reform.

The exemption threshold has been 1,000 euros per calendar year since 2024. The word has to be taken precisely: this is an exemption threshold and no allowance. If the sum of all gains from private disposals in a year stays below 1,000 euros, no tax arises. If it is one euro above, the entire gain becomes taxable, including the part below the line.

The offsetting of losses is the point worth most in a loss-making year and overlooked most often. Losses from private disposals may be offset only against gains of the same kind, not against employment income and not against gains from shares or interest. The statutory text is in Section 23 EStG at gesetze-im-internet.de. The decisive part is the second half of the rule: a loss counts for tax only if the sale takes place within the one-year period. Once the holding period has elapsed, the loss is irrelevant for tax, just as the gain would be. Anyone who has documented their positions cleanly with acquisition date and entry price spots the difference in minutes; a look at the comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers shows which programmes carry the one-year period per purchase automatically.

How to work out your own annual position

The figures above describe the market, not your portfolio. Your own annual position follows a different calculation, and it needs three details per position: acquisition date, entry price and quantity. The acquisition date determines whether the one-year period has already elapsed on December 31. The entry price determines whether the position stands at a gain or a loss. Only both together say whether a sale achieves anything for tax.

An example makes the difference visible. Two purchases, both 10,000 euros, both worth 8,000 euros today. The first dates from March 2026, the second from March 2025. Selling the first this year creates an offsettable loss of 2,000 euros, which runs against gains from private disposals in the same year and is otherwise carried forward. Selling the second leaves the loss without effect for tax, because the holding period has elapsed. The market view is the same in both cases; the tax consequence is not.

The rate decision and the annual expiry on the calendar

The US central bank's rate decision falls on Wednesday evening. The monthly expiry on the futures exchanges runs out on October 30, the large annual expiry on December 25. In between lie two further mining difficulty adjustments and the November inflation data. Four dates on which movement can arise, and 64 days in which the 9.8 percent would have to be made up.

What argues for and against an annual gain

Our assessment: an annual gain in 2026 is achievable, but it is not the most likely outcome. In favour is that 9.8 percent within 64 days is no extraordinary move for Bitcoin and that the $80,000 line has held three times since October 27, most recently on Wednesday at $80,153. Against it is that the path runs via the 30-day high at $86,490, that the funding rate at 6.7 percent a year already indicates a buy-side overhang, and that the final two months of last year cost 18.5 percent. We derive no recommendation from this, only an order: the October high first, then the year line.

What would overturn this assessment can be named. A daily close above $86,490 shortens the calculation to 2.2 percent and makes the year line a task for a single day. A daily close below $80,029 turns the question around and makes the annual gain into a question about the second half's low.

Bitcoin to year-end: without $88,364, 2026 stays a losing year

The remaining stretch consists of a price figure and a deadline. Three steps can be prepared within the 64 days, whichever way the price runs.

1. Determine the annual position per holding. Compile acquisition date, entry price and quantity, and mark which purchases have passed the one-year period on December 31. Which programmes carry that per purchase automatically is set out in the comparison of crypto tax tools.
2. Check venue and costs before it gets urgent. Anyone wanting to sell or buy more at year end meets fees and spreads that can make the difference of two percent in return. The authorised providers and their costs are in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
3. Settle custody if holdings are staying put for longer. Positions deliberately held beyond the turn of the year do not necessarily belong in the trading account. The hardware wallet comparison shows which devices make sense for which portfolio size.

(As of October 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)