Dogecoin: large addresses buy 600 million DOGE while daily turnover halves: why the price is still falling

Dogecoin trades at $0.0791, or €0.0705, on Monday midday, and that is despite a wave of buying by large addresses. Between October 12 and October 16, around 600 million DOGE moved onto addresses with large holdings, according to data from the analytics house Santiment. Over the same period the price did not gain: it lost 8.6 percent on a seven-day view. The explanation lies not in the buying but on the other side of the order book. Daily turnover has fallen to around $590 million, a drop of 49 percent within a day according to CoinMarketCap figures, which U.Today put down on Monday to quiet weekend trading. If you buy or sell Dogecoin today, you meet a thinner book than two weeks ago, and that changes the arithmetic of every order.

Where Dogecoin stands on Monday midday

The price sits at $0.0791, 0.36 percent below where it stood 24 hours earlier. The daily range runs from $0.0761 to $0.0801, which is 5.3 percent between low and high in a single day. Over 30 days there is a loss of 8.6 percent, over 200 days one of 12.5 percent, over a year one of 58.4 percent. Only the two-month view is up, by 3.2 percent. Market capitalisation comes to $12.37 billion, which means 12th place among all cryptocurrencies. The all-time high of $0.7316 from May 7, 2021 is 89.2 percent away. All figures come from CoinGecko, as of October 19.

600 million DOGE in five days: what Santiment measured

Santiment evaluates holdings by address class and thereby captures whether balances are shifting from small to large addresses. For the period of October 12 to 16 the firm reports an increase of around 600 million DOGE at the large addresses, as Brave New Coin reported. At Monday's price that is about $47.5 million. Measured against the circulating supply of 156.379 billion DOGE, the sum amounts to 0.38 percent of all tokens.

Those 0.38 percent are the reason the figure is smaller than it sounds. For comparison: at today's issuance of around 13.82 million new DOGE a day, which we broke down on October 18 in the article on miner revenue and the fee share, the network needs a good 43 days to pay out the same amount afresh. Five days of buying therefore absorbs less than six weeks of running supply.

One important caveat belongs with that: an address class is not an owner. Exchanges, custodians and funds hold client balances on omnibus addresses that land in the same class. An increase there can be a transfer between custodians rather than a buying decision. The shift is documented, its motive is not.

Turnover halves, and that is the real finding

Daily turnover of $590 million stands against a market capitalisation of $12.37 billion. The ratio of those two figures is called the turnover rate, and it comes to 4.8 percent: in a single day barely one dollar of market value in twenty changes hands. On October 4 daily turnover still stood at $854 million, as our article on the ETF channel recorded that day. The fall to $590 million is a drop of 31 percent in two weeks.

Turnover is the counterparty to every order. When it falls, there is less selling volume at a nearby price behind every bid, and the reverse holds too. The same order then moves the price further. That explains the 5.3 percent daily range on a day without news: it is not the news flow that is restless, it is the book that is thin.

How buying works in a thin market

The mechanism shows up in two numbers. The $47.5 million that large addresses took on over five days equals eight percent of one of today's daily turnovers. Spread across five days it is around 1.6 percent of turnover per day. An order of that size, sliced over several days, runs along with the book and does not lift the price.

The same holds in reverse. On October 15 Whale Alert reported a transfer of 300 million DOGE worth about $24.1 million to an exchange. An inflow to an exchange is not a sale, but it makes the tokens sellable. If $24 million hit the book on a day with $590 million of turnover, that would be four percent of the day's volume on the supply side. In a book with $854 million of turnover it would be barely three. The difference sounds small and decides whether a level holds.

For you that matters more at execution than at the price: with turnover halved, an instant buy costs more distance from the mid price than it did two weeks ago. We measured how large the gap between instant buy and order book is for DOGE on October 11; the direction has not changed since then, the amount has. Choosing an exchange with a deep DOGE order book and working with limits costs noticeably less in a thin market than a market order does.

What has changed since October 18

Our last Dogecoin article, on October 18, had the supply side in view: 13.82 million new DOGE a day, a fee share of 0.05 percent of miner revenue. Since then the price has moved from around $0.0795 to $0.0791, practically unchanged, but the daily range has widened to 5.3 percent and turnover has fallen by almost half. Issuance remains unchanged at 10,000 DOGE per block. The only new element is the demand side: the Santiment figures for October 12 to 16 were not yet available on October 18.

Set both sides against each other and this Monday's picture emerges. At today's price, 13.82 million new DOGE a day are around $1.09 million of fresh supply, every day, without a break. The $47.5 million of buying covers 43 days of that. It is more than a footnote and less than a turning point.

The levels: $0.0761 below, $0.0878 as a line

Monday's daily low sits at $0.0761. Below that begins the area we described on October 14 in the article on the February low as the next zone of support. That level has held since, but Monday morning tested it at $0.0761, considerably closer than five days ago, when the low stood at $0.0845.

On the upside the first hurdle is the daily high of $0.0801, the round eight-cent mark. Above it follows the 200-day line, which on October 4 ran at $0.0878 by our own calculation. From Monday's price that is 11 percent away. As long as turnover stands at $590 million, the counterparty for that path is missing: a rise of 11 percent needs buyers who buy into a thin book, and that is exactly what drives the price against the buyer.

The counter-calculation: $1.09 million of new supply a day

Dogecoin has no cap on supply. The protocol pays out a fixed 10,000 DOGE per block, and at a block time of roughly one minute that gives about 5.04 billion DOGE a year. Measured against today's circulating supply of 156.379 billion, that is 3.2 percent supply growth a year. The share falls every year, because the absolute amount stays fixed while the circulating supply grows. Holding DOGE and doing nothing therefore costs around three percent of your share of the total stock each year, even if the price stays unchanged.

Alongside that stands a second figure describing the institutional part of demand. The American Dogecoin ETFs hold around $14.4 million according to SoSoValue data and have booked almost no inflows or outflows in October. Against a market capitalisation of $12.37 billion that is 0.12 percent. For investors in Germany the figure is a sentiment gauge and nothing more: these funds cannot be bought in Germany because they carry no European authorisation.

Our assessment: the buying by large addresses is a real signal, but it does not carry far in this market. The numbers above speak for that, $47.5 million of buying against $1.09 million of daily new supply and turnover halved to $590 million. Equally documented is the argument against: the same thinness amplifies every move, upwards as well as downwards. If real demand sets in, a book like this needs less capital than usual to take the eight-cent mark and the 200-day line. Betting on a recovery therefore means betting not on the buying but on turnover coming back. That is an assessment of the situation, not a recommendation to buy.

FIFO per exchange: what the wallet-by-wallet view means for DOGE holdings

FIFO stands for first in, first out and means that on a sale the tokens bought first count as the ones sold first. What matters is which pool the calculation runs over. On the question of whether several exchanges are pooled together, there is guidance pointing to a wallet-by-wallet view, which we set out on the morning of October 19. Wallet-by-wallet means that each exchange and each wallet is calculated on its own, not all of them jointly.

For Dogecoin this point is more practical than for most large coins, because DOGE is traded more often and in smaller pieces. Buying the same coin on two exchanges and selling on one leaves a separate order per exchange and therefore a separate holding period. An export per exchange is not a convenience, then, but the basis of the calculation. Without a purchase record, tax advisers warn, an estimated assessment to your disadvantage is the likely outcome.

The holding period hangs on that. After a year of holding, a gain from a private sale is tax-free, and the clock runs per acquisition. Abolishing it has been weighed several times and so far not decided; we track the current state, including voting outcomes, on our page on the crypto holding period. As long as the rule stands, it is the strongest lever a private investor in Germany has at all, and it costs nothing but patience and records.

The three routes into Dogecoin and their consequences

Investors in Germany have three routes to a position in Dogecoin, and they differ markedly in tax terms. A direct purchase on an exchange with self-custody falls under private disposal: a one-year holding period, tax-free thereafter. An exchange-traded product on DOGE, in Europe an ETN or ETP, is depending on its structure a security and is then subject to flat-rate withholding tax with no holding-period benefit. The American Dogecoin ETFs are the third case and cannot be bought in Germany.

The difference is not a detail. On a gain of €1,000 after more than a year, a direct purchase leaves €1,000; a security leaves around €736 after withholding tax and the solidarity surcharge. That is the price of convenience, and it can be read for every product in the key information document before you buy.

Custody belongs to the decision. Holding the tokens yourself means carrying the risk of key management and keeping full control over the timing of a sale. Leaving them on the exchange saves the effort and makes you dependent on its solvency. Both routes are defensible; the difference belongs before the purchase and not after it.

Dogecoin at $0.0791: without turnover the buying stays ineffective

The purchase of 600 million DOGE is documented; its effect remains tied to a turnover that has halved. Three concrete steps follow from that:

1. Place the order differently. At $590 million of daily turnover and a 5.3 percent daily range, a market order costs measurably more than a limit. Check the order book depth for your pair before buying and set the limit where volume actually sits in the book, rather than taking the market price.
2. Document per exchange. Because the calculation runs wallet by wallet, pull the transaction export for each exchange separately and keep it. A tax tool with a portfolio tracker takes over the ordering per wallet and saves the manual work at year-end.
3. Keep the deadlines in your calendar. Note the date for every acquisition so you know the anniversary instead of estimating it. You can follow the state of the reform debate through our running page on the holding period.

(As of October 19, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and a total loss of the capital employed is possible.)