Bitcoin price prediction: Strategy buys 250 Bitcoin and $192.4 million of its own shares

The record shows this: the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin bought 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million in the week to October 11, and over the same period spent $192.4 million buying back its own preferred shares. Our assessment follows further down: the shortfall in demand is smaller than the nine-to-one ratio suggests, but it lands in a week when the funds are withdrawing too.

Bitcoin trades at $81,640 on Friday afternoon. Over the preceding 24 hours the range ran from $80,814 to $81,986, and the price opened at $81,314. For where the price can point over a horizon of months, see our Bitcoin price prediction. For the coming days one date counts that has nothing to do with chart technicals: on October 28, Strategy shareholders vote on how the company delimits its preferred dividends.

Strategy buys 250 Bitcoin and puts $192.4 million into its own paper

The figures appear in the company's mandatory filing of October 12. Between October 5 and October 11, Strategy acquired 250 Bitcoin at an average price of $86,194 each, fees included. Of the $21.5 million, $21.0 million came from the sale of 125,183 of its own common shares through the running issuance programme, the remaining $0.5 million from cash. Holdings rose from 848,000 to 848,250 Bitcoin.

In the same week the company bought back 1,932,145 STRC preferred shares and paid $192.4 million for them, an average of about $99.58 per share. That is nine times the amount that went into Bitcoin. For four years the money machine ran the other way: shares out, Bitcoin in. Since the spring it has been running in reverse.

To put the scale in context: 848,250 Bitcoin are roughly four percent of all 21 million units that will ever exist. At June 30 the figure stood at 846,000. Three and a half months therefore added 2,250 Bitcoin. In the same period a year earlier it was tens of thousands.

Voting closes on October 27, the special meeting follows a day later

What is being voted on sounds technical, and it is. Strategy wants to amend its charter so that a dividend record date arises on every calendar day for the STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD preferred shares, with payment then falling on the next business day. Today those record dates sit at wider intervals. The company stresses in its documents that the total of regular dividends neither rises nor falls as a result, and that the dividend rates stay unchanged.

A dividend record date is the day on which it is established who holds a share and therefore receives the distribution. Buy the day after, and that payment passes you by.

The record date for voting rights was September 25, 2026. Voting closes on October 27 at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time, and the special meeting is held virtually on October 28. The company names one peculiarity in its own proxy materials: a shareholder who does not vote has that vote counted as a no. For a charter amendment that needs a majority of all outstanding shares, that differs considerably from a mere abstention.

If shareholders approve, Strategy expects the first distribution under the new rhythm for STRC on November 2, with a record date of November 1. For STRF, STRK and STRD the first payment under the new pattern is due on January 4, 2027. Both depend on the board actually declaring the dividend and on the charter amendment taking effect.

The dividend mechanics and the Bitcoin holdings draw on the same till

The connection runs through the cash. Strategy pays fixed coupons on its preferred shares; STRF carries ten percent a year, STRK eight percent on the nominal value. That money has to come from somewhere every quarter. The company's software business does not generate it. So it comes from issuing new shares, from new bonds, or from selling Bitcoin.

That is precisely what happened over the summer. By mid-August, Strategy had sold 6,948 Bitcoin since May to service preferred dividends and buy back STRC paper. A company that sees itself as a holder of Bitcoin reserves thus became a net seller for a time. Daily accrual changes nothing about the total; it spreads the outflow more evenly across the year. For the market that means fewer large blocks and a steady trickle instead.

mNAV at 0.95: the market pays less for the share than for the Bitcoin behind it

The metric that decides everything is called mNAV, and it divides the company's stock market valuation by the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Above one, Strategy can issue new shares, buy Bitcoin with the proceeds, and holdings per share still grow. Below one, every new share dilutes existing shareholders rather than serving them.

According to data from mnav.com on October 23, the fully diluted market valuation stands at $65.9 billion, while the Bitcoin holdings are worth $69.3 billion. That gives a gross figure of 0.95. The site also shows 1.16 on the calculation the company prefers, and 1.34 on a third method that deducts senior claims first. The range over the past 52 weeks runs from 0.98 to 1.38. Which number is the right one depends on whether the $20.3 billion of senior claims is set against the Bitcoin position before or after.

One point for the nerves: a forced liquidation is not on the table. On the same calculation, the senior claims would cease to be covered only at a Bitcoin price of $23,897. That sits 71 percent below today's price. What falls away below one is not solvency; it is the leverage Strategy has used to buy so far.

The price since Thursday's expiry date: $1,060 lower

On Thursday we wrote here about the year-end expiry on December 25, where 132,411 Bitcoin hang in options. The price stood at about $82,700 at the time. It has given up $1,060 since then and held the low at $80,814 without breaking it. The $80,000 level, treated as a floor since mid-October, has therefore held for a second time.

The other side of demand has now joined in. On Wednesday the American Bitcoin funds were still taking in money, with IBIT alone absorbing $665 million. On Thursday the picture turned: figures from The Block show net outflows of $635.6 million from the funds, $254.1 million of that from IBIT alone. Fund demand and corporate demand are weakening in the same window, and that is the real news of this week.

The $86,194 level from Strategy's latest tranche

Levels usually come out of the chart. This one comes out of a regulatory filing. Strategy paid an average of $86,194 for its most recent 250 Bitcoin. Today's price sits 5.3 percent below that. While that holds, the latest tranche of the largest corporate holder is under water, and every further purchase through the share programme worsens the arithmetic for existing shareholders a second time.

On the upside the next hurdle therefore sits at $86,194; on the downside stand the two levels from current trading, $81,986 as the daily high and $80,814 as the daily low. Investors who prefer figures from the market to opinions have three reference points here that come out of no model.

Our assessment: the shortfall is smaller than the headline

In this newsroom's view, Strategy's importance for the price is currently overstated. The evidence: 250 Bitcoin in a week is not a market-moving quantity when daily spot turnover runs into the billions, and 2,250 Bitcoin in three and a half months is less than the American funds absorb on a single strong day. What is missing is less the volume than the signal. For four years a buyer was there who stepped in on every setback, regardless of price.

Against that, the absence need not be permanent. Should the share price climb well above the value of the Bitcoin per share again, the issuance programme pays off immediately and the purchases return. The 52-week range of the metric shows that this has swung back and forth several times this year. Strategy has also reported a $21 billion gain on digital assets for the third quarter, the first positive figure after four consecutive quarters of losses and a counterweight to the net loss of $8.22 billion in the second quarter.

On our own position: we assess the situation here, not the share and not the coin. Anyone buying or selling Bitcoin today carries the risk of a total loss themselves.

What an investor in Europe can work out from this

Three things can be followed today without a crystal ball.

First, your own entry price. If you bought your Bitcoin above $86,194, you are currently worse off than the latest tranche of the largest corporate holder. That is not a judgement but a yardstick, and an easy one to recalculate. For a purchase in euros, the exchange rate of the day belongs in the sum, otherwise you are comparing two different numbers.

Second, the tax framework. Under German income tax law as it stands, gains from the sale of crypto assets are tax free after a holding period of more than one year; within the year an exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per calendar year applies. Buy in the autumn of 2025, and you are reaching that one-year mark right about now. Whether and how this rule changes, we track in the status of the holding period reform. Reading your transaction log for this means asking which tranche is how old, and which still falls inside the one-year window. A portfolio tracker with a tax function takes that matching off your hands.

Third, custody. Hold products whose price hangs on a single company, and you carry that company's balance sheet risk with it. Hold Bitcoin directly, and you do not. Which platform suits that and at what fees is shown in our overview of trading venues for buying Bitcoin.

The next date after October 28

The Federal Open Market Committee of the American central bank meets in the same week. The session runs on October 27 and 28, with the decision on October 28. The policy rate stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent after the September increase. Both events therefore fall on the same day, and both bear on the same question: how expensive is money, and how much of it flows into assets without a running yield.

For the week to October 28 that produces a clear watch list: the result of the vote, the daily fund figures and the interest rate decision. Only afterwards can anyone say whether the demand gap of recent days was a pause or a pattern.

Strategy on October 28: without an mNAV above 1, a standing buyer is missing

1. Note the date. Voting closes on October 27, and the result of the special meeting is settled on October 28. The central bank decides the same day. If you intend to trade that week, set out the $80,814 and $86,194 levels beforehand rather than looking for them in the moment of the news.
2. Sort out your own cost basis. Gather the tranches with purchase date and price, and mark which have already reached the one-year mark. A tax and portfolio tool reads the data straight out of the exchange logs.
3. Weigh the venue against the fees. On small follow-up purchases the spread often eats more than a week's price move. The terms of the large platforms are set out in the exchange comparison, the offerings with stock and leverage access in the broker comparison.

(As of October 23, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)