US Midterms Tomorrow: 5 Scenarios for Bitcoin, XRP and Solana

On Tuesday, 3 November, Americans elect all 435 members of the House and 35 senators. For most assets that is a political story. For crypto it is a pricing event, because the single most important piece of US crypto legislation is sitting dead in the Senate waiting to find out who gets to revive it.

We covered the basics in our midterms explainer over the weekend. This piece is about the next 48 hours: what the market is pricing in, and what happens to $Bitcoin, XRP and Solana under each plausible result.

What is the market expecting from the midterms?

A Democratic House, and probably a Democratic Senate. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket gave Democrats a 92 to 94 percent chance of taking the House and around 69 percent for the Senate as of 30 October. Polling models point the same way, with the Senate far closer than the House.

That expectation is already in the price. Bitcoin is trading near 78,000 dollars after a difficult weekend, XRP is holding above 1.20 dollars after losing the 1.30 level, and Solana sits around 94 dollars. None of these levels assumes a crypto-friendly Congress.

The money is real. The industry has spent more than 170 million dollars this cycle, mostly through the Fairshake PAC, with over 60 million aimed at one race: stopping Sherrod Brown from returning to the Senate from Ohio. Brown is the most consistent crypto critic in recent Senate history and would be in line to shape the Banking Committee’s agenda.

Scenario 1: Democrats win the House and the Senate

The consensus outcome, so the smallest price reaction. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House 294 to 134 in July 2025 and died in the Senate 49 to 50 on 15 September, is not coming back in this form. Expect no crypto legislation in the lame duck session and a reintroduction from scratch in 2027, with Maxine Waters chairing House Financial Services and oversight hearings into the Trump family’s crypto ventures and the pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.

Bitcoin: largely unaffected, macro and ETF flows dominate. XRP: the token most tied to the regulatory narrative, so the slowest to recover without a clear path to market structure rules. Solana: mildly negative, since the altcoin ETF pipeline and tokenization projects depend on the same legal clarity.

Scenario 2: Democrats win the House, Republicans hold the Senate

Divided government. The Senate remains the bottleneck it already is, but Republican committee chairs keep crypto bills alive for negotiation. This is the muddle-through case.

Bitcoin: neutral. XRP and Solana: slightly better than Scenario 1 because the door to a 2027 market structure bill stays open, but no catalyst until a new text appears.

Scenario 3: Republicans hold both chambers

The upset. Prediction markets put this well below 10 percent, which means it is the outcome the market has done the least to price. A Republican Congress would try to bring CLARITY back quickly, with the 60-vote Senate threshold still the obstacle.

Bitcoin: a relief move toward the 80,000 dollar resistance is plausible. XRP: the biggest percentage winner of the three, with 1.30 back in play. Solana: positive, as ETF and institutional narratives revive.

Scenario 4: The Ohio Senate race decides everything

Whatever the national picture, watch Ohio. If Brown beats Jon Husted, the industry’s most expensive bet of the cycle has failed, and crypto gets a determined opponent in a Senate seat for six years. If Husted holds, Fairshake’s strategy is vindicated and donors stay engaged for 2028. For XRP in particular, the Ohio call on election night may move the chart more than the overall Senate result.

Scenario 5: A contested or delayed count

Close Senate races in several states could leave control undecided for days. Markets dislike uncertainty more than they dislike bad news. In this case expect the midterm story to fade behind Friday’s jobs report and Bitcoin to trade its own levels: 76,000 as support, 80,000 as resistance.

What should crypto investors do before election day?

Not much. Whatever happens on Tuesday, US crypto law changes slowly, and the hard dates this month are macro ones: payrolls on 6 November and the MSCI decision on Bitcoin treasury companies on 11 November. Position sizing and patience beat predictions.

Live prices for Bitcoin, XRP and Solana are on our crypto prices page.