Solana price prediction: 15 percent below the 200-day line, can Breakpoint help?

Solana was trading at around $75.20 on Saturday morning, roughly €68.20, and enters the most important week of its year 15 percent below its 200-day line. The Breakpoint 2026 developer conference opens in London on Sunday, November 15. According to CoinGecko, SOL lost 5.9 percent over the past 24 hours and briefly fell to $74.95, after climbing as high as $82.16 on Friday.

The facts are these: the line our newsroom described eleven days ago as the decisive level before the conference has given way, and US spot Solana ETFs keep losing money, most recently $3.09 million in a single day. Our assessment follows further down. The conference can generate headlines, but without fresh inflows it lacks the fuel for a reversal.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Solana price prediction, with scenarios to 2030. This piece sticks to the short term: what has changed since our last assessment, which guests in London matter more for the price than any product announcement, and which levels count during conference week.

Solana price on Saturday morning: $75, 15 percent below the 200-day average

The 200-day line is the average of the closing prices over the past 200 days. Many traders read it as the boundary between an intact and a broken long-term trend. Based on CoinGecko's daily prices, that average for SOL currently stands at $88.91. The price is therefore about $13.70 below it, a gap of 15.4 percent.

The shorter averages are even further away. The 20-day average stands at $91.78, the 50-day at $103.86 and the 100-day at $99.81. When every major average sits above the price and the shortest is heading down towards the longest, chart analysts call it a clean downtrend. That is exactly the picture SOL presents ahead of London.

The comparison with the wider market is weak as well. Bitcoin fell 2.6 percent to $67,010 over the same 24 hours, ether 1.9 percent. SOL therefore lost more than twice as much as the largest cryptocurrency. Over seven days Solana is down 16.6 percent, over 30 days 26.3 percent. The price is about 74 percent below its record high of $293.31 from January 2025.

Since November 4: the Breakpoint level at $88.88 has broken

Eleven days before the conference, SOL stood exactly where the trend was supposed to be decided. In our analysis of November 4, the daily low was $89.77, less than a dollar above the 200-day line, which ran at $88.88 at the time. By the afternoon SOL was back at $94.24. The reasoning was simple: if the zone around $89 held, Solana would head to London with an intact chart.

The zone did not hold. SOL has closed below the line since November 9, and not a single daily close has been back above it since. Compared with November 4, the price is down a good 20 percent. On Friday at midday, when we reported on the large buyer Forward Industries, one SOL still cost $80.65. At the time we flagged Friday's low at $78.10 and the zone around $75 as warning levels. The first gave way overnight into Saturday, and the price now sits at the second.

Since then a headwind from outside has emerged that has little to do with Solana itself. More on that in the section on the Fed and Iran. If you want the overnight move in detail, read our report on the lowest level since August.

Solana Breakpoint 2026 at Olympia: stablecoins first, AI agents on day two

Breakpoint is the annual in-house conference of the Solana Foundation, the organisation behind the Solana blockchain. The 2026 edition runs from November 15 to 17 at the Olympia exhibition centre in west London. According to the preview by the portal Coin Gabbar, the event carries the motto "Token Supercycle". Day one is devoted to stablecoins, payments and tokenised real-world assets, day two to AI agents, consumer apps and new forms of ownership.

A tokenised asset is a security, a bond or a fund unit whose ownership is recorded as a token on a blockchain. For months this field has been Solana's strongest argument with institutional investors: fast settlement and low fees are meant to persuade banks and asset managers to issue their products there rather than on Ethereum.

According to Coin Gabbar, the foundation expected more than 8,000 visitors from over 100 countries back in August. For comparison, Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi drew a little over 7,000 guests from 105 countries, according to the portal Solana Compass. The foundation planned to publish the full agenda only shortly before the start.

DTCC, BNY and Mastercard on stage: why the Breakpoint guest list matters more than announcements

Alongside Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko and foundation president Lily Liu, the speaker list includes names nobody would have expected at a developer conference two years ago: Val Wotton of the US securities depository DTCC, Patrick Corker of the bank BNY, Christian Rau of Mastercard, Scott Lucas of Barclays and Hester Serafini of ICE Europe. Then there is Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of the asset manager Bitwise, which runs one of the US spot Solana ETFs.

For the outlook, this line-up says more than any product launch. The DTCC settles the bulk of US securities trading. If it plans to move tokenised securities over Solana, that creates demand for block space, and transaction fees are paid in SOL. This is the mechanism supporters are counting on: more real usage generates more fees, part of which flows to validators and so to everyone who stakes their SOL.

The catch is the timeline. Pilot projects at large institutions often run for years before meaningful volumes appear. A speech in London will not change the fee picture for the coming weeks. Anyone hoping for a quick price effect is betting on sentiment rather than on measurable numbers.

Abu Dhabi 2025 as a precedent: SOL lost more than 11 percent after the conference

Our analysis of November 4 compiled how the price moved around the conference days for 2023 to 2025, each time from eleven days before the start to the close. For the most recent edition we also recalculated the two weeks afterwards, because that is usually when the effect of a conference fades.

Breakpoint 2025 ran from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi. According to CoinGecko's daily data, SOL cost $137.89 on the eve of the event, December 10. By the end of the conference on December 13 it was $132.30, 4.1 percent lower. Two weeks later, on December 27, the price stood at $122.19. From the eve of the conference to the end of December, that amounts to a decline of 11.4 percent.

Traders have a name for the pattern: "buy the rumour, sell the news". They buy in anticipation of good news and sell once it is announced. A single year is no law, and in 2025 the conference fell into a phase in which the whole crypto market was retreating. It does show, however, that a conference alone does not reverse a downtrend.

Spot Solana ETFs: $3.09 million outflow on Friday, $1.14 billion in assets

The second factor that has weighed on the price for weeks is the exchange-traded funds in the US. A spot ETF buys real SOL for every dollar investors put in and holds them in custody. When investors withdraw money, the fund has to sell, or at least stop buying new coins. Inflows are therefore direct demand, outflows direct selling pressure.

According to SoSoValue data, summarised by KuCoin's news site, net outflows from US spot Solana ETFs came to $3.09 million on November 13, all of it from Fidelity's FSOL fund. Assets under management across all Solana ETFs then stood at $1.137 billion, and cumulative net inflows since launch at about $1.41 billion.

Friday's figure is small. What matters more is the direction. In the last week of October the funds lost $71.47 million according to our analysis of November 4, the largest weekly outflow since launch. No reversal has been visible since then, and Friday again brought an outflow, albeit a smaller one. A recovery needs days with inflows, not merely days with smaller outflows.

If you want to buy SOL yourself rather than hold it through a US fund, you need an exchange with a MiCA licence in the EU. Which platforms offer low spreads and fees when buying Solana is shown in our crypto exchange comparison.

Fed and Iran: the headwind for the Solana price comes from outside

No Solana event triggered the overnight sell-off. The financial portal investingLive traces Friday's pressure to two sources: after high inflation data, traders expect the US Federal Reserve to keep raising rates, and US President Donald Trump said the US did not need a deal with Iran. Both pushed up the dollar and US Treasury yields.

Higher rates hit risky assets in a particular order. The most volatile assets lose first, and among the large cryptocurrencies SOL is one of them. That explains why Solana fell more than twice as hard as bitcoin, which according to our report had slipped to the 200-week line on Friday after the US producer price data.

For conference week, this means that even strong news from London competes with data from Washington. As long as the market is talking about further hikes, volatile altcoins lack a tailwind.

Solana support after the break: $74.95, $71.89 and $62.18

Price levels are not a forecast, but they show where buyers and sellers last became active and where orders are therefore likely to cluster again. All figures come from CoinGecko's daily data.

On the downside

• $74.95: the low of the past 24 hours. It sits just below the round number of $75, which we flagged on Friday as the second warning level.
• $71.89: the lowest daily close, from August 2. From there SOL began its late-summer climb to more than $120 at the end of September. The price is a little over 4 percent away from it.
• $62.18: the year's low, from June 7. If the price falls below the August low, there is no zone of meaningful trading until this level.

On the upside

• $82.16: Friday's high. A daily close above it would fully recover the overnight sell-off.
• $88.91: the 200-day line. Only above it would the break of November 9 be repaired.
• Just under $100: this is where the 100-day average runs, at $99.81, which is also a round number.

Solana in conference week: reclaiming $82 or testing the August low

The positive scenario: London produces a firm commitment from a major financial institution, such as a timetable for tokenised securities on Solana, and ETF flows turn positive. SOL could then win back Friday's high at $82.16. Anything more would require calmer conditions on rates and Iran, because the distance to the 200-day line is almost 15 percent.

The cautious scenario: the conference delivers headlines but no numbers, the funds keep losing money, and traders sell into the news as they did in December 2025. The August low at $71.89 then comes into view. A daily close below it opens the way to the year's low at $62.18.

Our view: we consider the cautious scenario the more likely one. Three documented points support it. The price is below every major average, the ETFs lost more money in late October than at any time since launch and are reporting outflows again this week, and the last conference ended with a decline of 11.4 percent within a little over two weeks. The guest list argues the other way. A binding commitment from DTCC or BNY would be a signal not seen at earlier editions. Until then, London remains a sideshow for the price.

Buying SOL in Europe: MiCA licensing and trading costs

Since the transition period ended, the full MiCA requirement has applied to purchases: anyone who brokers crypto assets to customers in the EU needs a licence as a crypto-asset service provider. Which platforms hold this authorisation is shown in our overview of regulated crypto exchanges. In a falling market it pays twice over to watch costs: a spread of one percent costs about 75 cents per SOL at $75, before the price has even started to rise. If you want to track purchases, sales and staking rewards for your tax return, suitable programs are listed in our overview of crypto tax software.

Solana before London: the downtrend only ends above $88.91

1. Note the levels: keep $71.89 as your warning level and $82.16 as the first recovery level. With a price alert at your exchange, you do not have to spend the conference days in front of a screen. The providers' terms are listed in our exchange comparison.
2. Consider staking: if you plan to hold SOL for longer anyway, you can stake your holdings and earn ongoing rewards in SOL. Lock-up periods and yields differ from provider to provider, and the overview of staking platforms puts them side by side.
3. Decide on custody: SOL you intend to hold for a year or more is safer in your own wallet than in an exchange account. Which devices support Solana is shown in our hardware wallet comparison.

(As of November 14, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)