Did Tariff News Stop the Crypto Bull Run? The January 2026 Rally Revisited

Update 25 September 2026: The Supreme Court did not rule the next day. It struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on 20 February 2026, by a 6 to 3 vote. By then the rally described below had already ended: according to CoinGecko daily data, Bitcoin peaked at about $96,900 on 15 January and was down to about $67,000 on the day of the ruling. Bitcoin trades at about $83,980 today (CoinGecko, 25 September 2026). The original analysis from 13 January 2026 follows as a dated snapshot.

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What actually happened after January 13?

The analysis got the law right and the market wrong. Its base case, that the court would find the tariffs illegal, came true, but only five weeks later, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. The rally did not wait for it. Bitcoin rose for two more days, then new US tariff threats against European countries over Greenland turned the mood. Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark that this analysis called the line for a short-term correction around 20 January, and by 6 February it traded at about $62,800.

When the ruling finally came, Bitcoin moved only a few percent: CoinGecko daily data show about $66,400 on 19 February and $68,000 on 21 February. Our report from the day of the decision covers the ruling and the refund question. Bitcoin's 2026 low of about $58,600 followed on 1 July. So did the news stop the bull run? Not the court ruling itself. The rally ended on a mix of trade threats, liquidations and a risk-off market, before the ruling arrived. Current targets are in our Bitcoin price prediction and Ethereum price prediction.

The January 13, 2026 analysis

Crypto markets ended the day on a strong note, driven by a broad risk-on move across Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins. Bitcoin was holding above the $93,000 area, Ethereum had reclaimed $3,200, and market sentiment had clearly shifted bullish.

Attention was turning to the expected US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs, a macro event that could inject volatility into both traditional markets and crypto. The key question was simple: could the next day's news stop the bull run?

Why Crypto Was Rallying

The rally was not just headline-driven hype. Several factors were aligning at the same time:

1. Bitcoin remained above $93,000, pressing towards the key $94,000 resistance
2. Ethereum confirmed a breakout above $3,200, strengthening overall market confidence
3. Altcoins were following Bitcoin instead of lagging, a healthy sign for market structure
4. The macro narrative favoured crypto:
   • President Trump continued to publicly criticise Fed Chair Jerome Powell
   • Markets were increasingly pricing in future rate cuts
   • Political uncertainty reinforced Bitcoin's hedge narrative

Together, these elements created a solid bullish setup.

The Key Event: The Supreme Court Tariffs Ruling

The market was focused on one major catalyst: the US Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs. Prediction markets showed a high probability that the tariffs would be ruled illegal. The decision was widely expected on 14 January 2026; it came on 20 February.

Scenario 1: Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal (Base Case)

If the court ruled the tariffs illegal, markets were likely to read it as:

• Reduced trade uncertainty
• A softer US dollar
• Continued support for risk assets

Expected crypto impact:

• Bitcoin likely holds above $92,000 to $93,000
• Ethereum remains supported above $3,150 to $3,200
• Altcoins consolidate or grind higher

In this scenario, the analysis expected the bull run to continue, with at most a pause after the strong move. The ruling did go this way, but by then Bitcoin was already below $70,000.

Scenario 2: Court Rules in Favour of the Tariffs (Surprise Outcome)

A ruling in favour of the tariffs would have been a negative surprise and could have triggered a short-term risk-off reaction.

Possible reaction:

• Temporary sell-off in risk assets
• Increased volatility across crypto markets

Key levels to watch:

• Bitcoin could pull back towards $90,000 to $91,000
• Ethereum could retest $3,050 to $3,100

Unless followed by hawkish Fed commentary, a strong dollar breakout or heavy ETF selling, such a move was seen as a pullback, not a trend reversal.

Technical Outlook in January: Structure Favoured Bulls

From a technical perspective, the market looked constructive:

• Bitcoin was consolidating below resistance, not rejecting it
• Ethereum's breakout added confirmation across majors
• Volume was expanding rather than fading
• No clear bearish divergence had appeared on higher timeframes

This suggested that negative headlines would likely cause volatility, not a structural breakdown. In hindsight, the structure broke within a week.

What Traders Were Told to Expect

• Increased volatility around headlines
• Possible sharp intraday swings
• Direction decided by the daily close, not short-term spikes

Key Bitcoin levels from January:

• Above $92,000: bull structure intact
• Break above $94,000: door open towards $98,000 to $100,000
• Below $90,000: short-term correction

Bitcoin did break above $94,000 and peaked near $97,000 on 15 January, then fell below $90,000 within a week.

Conclusion

The January conclusion was that the next day's news might slow momentum but was unlikely to end the crypto bull run outright. The court ruling itself did not end it. The market turned anyway, and the lesson is that a single scheduled event is rarely what decides a trend: positioning and the broader macro mood matter more.

FAQ

When did the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs?

On 20 February 2026. By a 6 to 3 vote, the court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the president to impose tariffs.

Did the tariff ruling stop the crypto rally?

No. The rally had already ended in mid-January. Bitcoin peaked at about $96,900 on 15 January and traded at about $67,000 on the day of the ruling, according to CoinGecko daily data.

Where does Bitcoin trade now?

On 25 September 2026 Bitcoin traded at about $83,980, according to CoinGecko.