Solana forecast: $670 million in capital withdrawn and fees down four times as fast as trading: the level that decides

Solana trades at $104.27 on Friday evening, 1.0 percent below the previous day. The figure alone explains little. What happens beneath the price is more interesting: the capital locked on the Solana blockchain has fallen by $670 million to $5.94 billion since the monthly high of October 5, while trading volume gave up only 4 percent. Network fees fell 15.2 percent over the same period, almost four times as fast as trading. Where the price can point on a horizon of months is set out in our Solana forecast.

This divergence is the real finding of the week, because it says something about who is still active on Solana and who has already pulled their money out. For investors in Europe, three concrete decisions hang on it: whether buying more fits this situation, whether staked SOL is sitting in the right place, and which levels justify entering at all.

Locked capital: $670 million less since October 5

Locked capital, known in the industry as total value locked or TVL, is the sum of all funds users have deposited into a blockchain's applications: into lending protocols, into trading platforms, into liquidity pools. The metric measures confidence with real money, because every dollar deposited carries a risk.

According to our query on DefiLlama dated October 16, 2026, that figure for Solana stood at $6.61 billion on October 5. By October 16 it was $5.94 billion. That is $670 million less, or 10.1 percent. Since Monday, October 12 alone, $284 million flowed out.

The outflow was not even. Up to October 7 the figure held above $6.57 billion. On October 8 and 9 it slumped to $6.18 billion, recovered slightly to $6.22 billion by October 12 and then slid again. Two downward steps, in other words, not a steady move.

Network fees: $85.68 million in seven days

The second figure comes from the same source. In the seven days to October 16, users paid $85.68 million in network fees, 15.2 percent less than in the previous week. Over 30 days the total comes to $462.25 million, down 8.26 percent against the previous month.

Trading volume on the blockchain's decentralised exchanges gave up only 4 percent over the same weekly window, to $13.68 billion. Over 30 days it was $71.84 billion, down 6.07 percent. Trading is therefore continuing on a large scale. It simply earns the network considerably less.

Why fees and volume can diverge

The mechanism behind it is well documented on Solana. The base fee per transaction is 5,000 lamports, a fraction of a cent, and it does not change. Most of the revenue comes from what are called priority fees: anyone who wants certainty that their transaction makes the next block voluntarily adds a little on top. Those surcharges rise when many participants compete for the same slot at once.

When fees fall faster than volume, it means trading is still happening but the urgency has gone. Competition for block space has eased. That pattern is typical when automated trading programs and arbitrage strategies scale back their activity while ordinary swaps carry on. A single day does not contradict the trend: on October 15, daily fees rose to $12.78 million, up 19.7 percent against October 14. At the start of the month, though, they were still above $19 million a day.

What has changed since October 12

In our Solana analysis of October 12, the 20-day line at $117 was the next target. That line stands at $113.99 today, so it has come down more than three dollars towards the price. It was still not reached: the price stood at $111.25 on October 12 and is now at $104.27, down 6.3 percent in four days.

The finding back then was a fee decline of 35 percent within seven days. That decline has not continued; it has settled at the lower level. What is new is the capital outflow, which was not this pronounced on October 12. The situation has shifted, then, rather than simply deteriorated.

The levels that count now

All the averages below are calculated from the daily closing prices of the past 90 days, data source CoinGecko, as of October 16, 2026.

To the downside

The next demonstrable level is the daily low at $103.65, 0.6 percent below the current price. Below that comes the 30-day low at $101.57. That level was last tested on October 9 and held, which makes it the more honest benchmark than the round $100.

If selling pressure reaches lower, the 90-day line sits at $96.20. The price is currently 7.7 percent above it. As long as it stays above that line, the advance since mid-July is intact in arithmetic terms, even though the short-term lines turned down some time ago.

To the upside

The first resistance is the 7-day line at $106.80, 2.4 percent above the price. Directly above it sits the daily high of $107.18. The two values are so close together that they read as a single zone.

The next real hurdle is the 50-day line at $109.36, then the 20-day line at $113.99. The 30-day high of $122.08 is 17.1 percent away and is not a realistic target this week.

The order of the lines says more than any single one of them: the 20-day line sits above the 50-day line, and both sit above the price. That stacking arises when a market comes out of a higher range and has not yet run its course.

Our assessment

From the newsroom's point of view, the capital outflow weighs more than the fee decline. Fees swing with the mood of the day, as the jump on October 15 shows. Locked capital moves more slowly, because a deliberate decision sits behind every withdrawal. $670 million in eleven days is therefore the more reliable signal.

Against that stands the order of magnitude: $5.94 billion is still more than most blockchains have ever locked, and trading volume is holding up remarkably well at minus 4 percent. The stablecoin base on Solana also stands at $15.72 billion according to the same DefiLlama query. That is purchasing power staying on the blockchain even when capital is pulled out of the applications. For comparison: on Ethereum it is $143.94 billion, on Tron $94.49 billion.

Our conclusion: the situation warrants caution on leveraged positions but no panic in an existing holding. Investors looking to build a position have a testable level in the 30-day low at $101.57 to anchor the decision to. This is explicitly not a buy or sell recommendation.

What European investors can take from it

Holding period and tax

In Germany, gains from selling crypto assets remain tax-free after a holding period of one year, governed by section 23 of the Income Tax Act. Below one year an exemption limit of 1,000 euros per calendar year applies. Exemption limit means: once it is exceeded, the entire gain is taxable, not only the portion above it.

Important for everyone who has put SOL to work in a protocol: lending crypto assets for a fee or committing them to liquidity calls for clean documentation of your own inflows. The tax authorities treat such income as other income. The current withdrawal of capital is a good occasion to put your own positions in order, entry dates included.

Staking

Staking SOL earns a share of precisely the fees that are currently falling, plus new issuance. If the fee side falls over a period of weeks, the actual yield drops even when the advertised figure stays the same. A look at the yield actually paid out over recent epochs is therefore worth more right now than usual. Providers' terms are set out in our comparison of staking platforms.

Then there is the unstaking delay: staked SOL is only freed at the end of the current epoch, which runs around two to three days. Anyone who might sell at short notice should factor in that wait before a level has been broken anyway.

Buying route and custody

Buying in the European Union has been governed by the MiCA regulation since the end of 2024. Providers need a licence, granted and supervised in Germany by BaFin. Which venues hold that licence and what they charge is set out in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

Larger holdings are best split between a trading balance and a long-term holding. The part that stays put belongs in separate custody whose access words are not stored digitally.

Leverage

Leveraged positions are especially vulnerable in a phase of falling liquidity, because less locked capital favours larger price jumps. Traders who still work with leverage calculate their liquidation price in advance and check the funding costs. Our comparison of perp DEXs gives an overview of the venues.

The next dates

On October 21, 2026, the Alpenglow network upgrade goes live in Epoch 1064. It markedly shortens the time to a transaction's final confirmation. For stakers the date matters because some validators have to update their software. Holders whose SOL sits with a provider can ask in advance whether its validators are prepared.

Regardless of that, the data remains the best leading indicator: if locked capital turns back up while fees follow, that is a sturdier sign than any single price candle.

Solana capital outflow: $101.57 decides, not the round $100

Three steps for the coming days:

1. Set the level. The 30-day low at $101.57 is the testable point to the downside, the zone from $106.80 to $107.18 the first resistance to the upside. Buyers and sellers tie the decision to one of those levels instead of to a gut feeling. The terms offered by licensed venues are set out in our comparison of crypto exchanges.
2. Recalculate the staking return. Compare the yield actually paid out in recent weeks with the advertised figure and check the unstaking delay before October 21. The providers at a glance: staking platforms compared.
3. Document the holding period. Note the entry date for every position and keep the one-year deadline in view. Useful tools for that are in our comparison of tax software.

(As of October 16, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)