Is XRP Coin a Good Buy At Current Prices?

Update (October 10, 2026): The US Senate rejected the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) on September 15, 2026, by 49 to 50; 60 votes were needed (Senate roll call). The bill is on hold for now. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve statement). The sections below reflect the situation as of October 23, 2026.

$XRP is trading at $1.33 as of 23 October, down roughly 12% over 30 days, about 45% lower on the year and some 50% below the twelve-month high of $2.6455 set on 27 October 2025. Every conversation about buying XRP at these levels started from the same place: the chart was cheap relative to 2025, and cheap relative to 2025 was a losing argument for months — until the twelve-month low of $0.9927 on 17 August. The recovery that followed carried into early October and has since given back most of its ground.

So the question is not whether XRP looks discounted. It is whether the technical structure and the macro calendar give a buyer anything to work with. Here is what both are saying.

XRP Price Analysis: Good Technicals Shaping up

The single most important line on the chart is the 200-day EMA at $1.3814. Price now sits 3.9% below it, against 31% below at the start of August and 9% above at the start of October. The 50-day EMA at $1.3709 has been undercut by 3.2%. Both lines have gone from support to resistance, and price has not closed above the 200-day EMA since 13 October. The bullish crossover of 4 October has unwound: on 18 October 2026 the 50-day EMA dropped back below the 200-day EMA and now sits 0.8% under it. The test of the long-term average as support has failed.

Below that, the levels stack up cleanly:

• Resistance: first the two averages, the 50-day EMA at $1.3709 roughly 3.3% and the 200-day EMA at $1.3814 roughly 4.1% above spot; above them the round $1.50 level, briefly taken in early October, roughly 13.0% away, and the next round number at $1.60, roughly 20.6% above spot
• Support: the reclaimed $1.20 shelf, about 9.6% lower, beneath it the dollar level some 24.6% lower and the twelve-month low of $0.9927 from 17 August, some 25.2% lower

The $1.00 to $1.19 band where XRP spent the whole summer has been broken to the upside. From the twelve-month low of $0.9927 on 17 August the token has added roughly 34%, clearing the old resistance shelves at $1.15, $1.20 and $1.30 in turn, then the 200-day EMA and, in early October, the round $1.50 level as well. The upper steps have since been given back: the recovery cleared its most important obstacle and has fallen back behind it.

RSI (14) reads 43.4, still below the 50 midline, against 35.2 at our last reading and 44.7 before that. Nothing is overbought — that would take a reading above 70 — and the indicator was last oversold at the twelve-month low in August, which is where the bounce began. At 43 it has moved away from that threshold again without reclaiming the midline: the indicator does not support the recovery, but it no longer stands in its way either.

Has XRP Coin Broken Its Downtrend or Just Paused?

This is the one mildly constructive detail on the chart. The descending trendline drawn from the May high near $1.50 has been sloping down through every bounce since, capping rallies in June and again in mid July. As of the start of August, price has moved above it.

Through August that break led nowhere. It then delivered: XRP took the $1.15 shelf, reclaimed $1.20 and trades at $1.33. What was then a lapsed constraint became a breakout from the summer range, complete with a reclaim of the 200-day EMA — except that price has since slipped back below the old May high and then below both averages. What is left is the breakout from the summer range.

The threshold analysts set for that has been met and held. BeInCrypto's analysis put the bullish trigger at a three-day close above $1.22 and argued it was the level that would pull ETF desks back into the market; XRP still trades roughly 9% above it. The May breakdown zone at $1.45 and the round $1.50 level were cleared in early October but sit well above spot again — $1.50 by roughly 13.0%, $1.60 by roughly 20.6%.

The more honest read of the chart is still a cautious one: a recovery with a proven floor that has just pushed through its decisive ceiling and has yet to confirm the break.

Why the 200-Day EMA Is Now the Whole Story

Because it is the line that defines the broader trend — and XRP has lost it again. From 19 September to 12 October price traded above it, for the first time since spring; not since. While price stays below it, the advance is formally a counter-move rather than a trend. The 50-day EMA at $1.3709 and the 200-day EMA at $1.3814 now sit 3.3% and 4.1% above price and form a single resistance zone; the next independent line of support beneath is the reclaimed $1.20 shelf.

The reward-to-risk reads differently from a week ago. Upside to the two averages is about 4%, to $1.50 about 13.0% and to the round $1.60 level about 20.6%. Downside to $1.20 is about 9.6%, to the dollar about 24.6%, and to the twelve-month low about 25.2%. Anyone who accumulated between $1.00 and $1.02 in August is still up roughly 31%; anyone buying today pays a slightly higher premium than a week ago and still buys below both averages.

What Macro Events Are Driving XRP Now?

Three things — and unlike over the summer, at least one of them is now helping.

• The Fed has taken itself off the table. The FOMC raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, after five consecutive holds. Chair Kevin Warsh again declined to offer forward guidance, leaving the path from here unclear. A restrictive Fed with no cut priced in means liquidity stays tight and leverage stays expensive, which is a structural headwind for altcoins specifically.
   
• Bitcoin is still providing a bid, but a weaker one. BTC trades around $81,710, down roughly 3% over 30 days, and sits 7.1% above its 200-day EMA at $76,317 and 1.1% above its 50-day EMA. That still satisfies the precondition XRP lacked all summer: XRP has never sustained a rally while Bitcoin trades below its own long-term averages, and the majors remain above them — unlike XRP itself, which has just lost its own.
   
• The worst of the seasonality is behind the market. August is the flattest month in XRP's history at a 0.43% average return, and the token has closed the month red four years running, the longest active losing streak of any month. Analyst ChartNerd notes that in US midterm election years the picture is worse: August 2014 fell 5.7%, 2018 dropped 23%, and 2022 lost 13.7%, averaging around a 14% decline. 2026 is a midterm year — and this year's August did in fact end on the twelve-month low of $0.9927. That is precisely where the current recovery began. Seasonality is not a trading signal on its own, but this particular headwind has passed.

Confirmation from the fund wrapper is still outstanding. Per BeInCrypto, US spot XRP ETF flows registered exactly zero on 10 of July's 17 trading days, with net monthly demand of roughly $12.4 million against a fund complex holding about $997 million. Daily value traded fell about 37% across the month. Institutional desks are not selling XRP, they have simply stopped showing up.

Does the CLARITY Act Still Matter For XRP?

It matters more to XRP than to any other major token, and its odds are getting worse.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would write XRP's commodity classification into federal statute and move oversight from the SEC to the CFTC. The SEC and CFTC already named XRP a digital commodity in a joint action on 17 March 2026, but that was interpretive guidance, not law, and a future set of regulators could withdraw it. Pension funds, bank trust desks and asset managers have been waiting on permanence, not interpretation.

The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on 14 May 2026. It has sat on the Senate floor calendar since 1 June without a scheduled vote. In late July the Senate formally shelved it to prioritise a Russia sanctions bill and nominations. The chamber's recess ran until 14 September. Polymarket odds for 2026 passage had most recently slid to around 30%.

This is the crux of the bull case and the bear case at the same time. Standard Chartered's conditional $8 target requires full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in fresh ETF inflows. Without a floor vote, that number is theoretical and the primary institutional catalyst for XRP disappears until at least late 2026, plausibly 2027 given the midterm calendar.

There is real progress on the technology side. The XRP Ledger's v3.3.0 release targets institutional onboarding, a validator vote is pending on an amendment package covering batch transactions, confidential transfers, sponsored fees and permission delegation, and Ripple Swell runs 27 to 29 October in New York. None of that moved price for months, which tells you what the market is actually waiting for.

So Is XRP Coin a Good Buy At Current Prices?

At $1.33, XRP is a buy that still sits below both averages: the stress test our last reading named has not been passed.

The case for buying is that the summer range has broken to the upside and its ceiling at $1.20 now sits about 9.6% below price, the dollar floor held through its hardest test at the twelve-month low of $0.9927 on 17 August, price is still roughly 34% above that low, the $1.22 level analysts named as the turning point has held to this day, Bitcoin remains above its long-term averages — the condition XRP lacked all summer — RSI at 43.4 has pulled away from oversold territory without reclaiming the midline, and the CLARITY Act remains a live catalyst that would re-rate the asset quickly if it passes.

The case against buying now is the lost trend structure. The break above the 200-day EMA held from 19 September to 12 October and has since been given back: the setback that was supposed to confirm the line as support broke it instead. On 18 October the 50-day EMA also fell back below the 200-day EMA, unwinding the crossover of 4 October. You are still paying roughly 34% more than at the twelve-month low on 17 August, and now below both averages. And the single institutional catalyst that matters, the CLARITY Act, is still stalled.

The practical read: the zone formed by the 50-day EMA at $1.3709 and the 200-day EMA at $1.3814 has turned from support into resistance and sits about 4% above price. The caveat our last reading attached, that a line under test can also break, is what happened. The move is a counter-rally again, and the test is inverted: only a weekly close back above that zone restores the reversal. If the $1.20 shelf some 9.6% lower fails instead, the path leads to the dollar level and the twelve-month low of $0.9927, some 25% lower. Between those two markers is the range in which XRP will be decided over the coming weeks.