Balaji Srinivasan, Coinbase ex-CTO has stated that Bitcoin price can touch $100,000 after hitting the major psychological level of $10,000. At the time of writing this article, the BItcoin price is at 9884.87USD. The major cryptocurrency is down by −18.47%.
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Balaji Srinivasan says Bitcoin Price Rally is Predictable
The ex-Coinbase CTO says that the Bitcoin Price rally is rather predictable if you analyze BTC by a particular angle. Balaji thinks that Bitcoin Price will touch $100,000 after the coronavirus outbreak. He tweeted:
In 2009, it was unlikely that BTC would cross $100k. But conditional on BTC having *already crossed* $10k, it was more likely to cross $100k.
On Dec 1, 2019 it was unlikely the virus would cross 100k cases. But having *accelerated* past 10k, it was more likely to cross 100k. pic.twitter.com/XzFvxKZbEC
To explain his analysis, Balaji compared Bitcoin Price to various coronavirus incidents that quickly went past 10,000.
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Bitcoin Price and the coronavirus upsurge
Srinivasan emphasized that both Bitcoin Price and coronavirus can be represented as a random process. He said that the dynamics of Bitcoin price & coronavirus cases are diverse, but both are often represented as stochastic processes. For example, prices as GBMs and epidemics as SEIR[S]. At the inception, the parameters of these stochastic processes are hidden. But as data evolves in, parameter values update.
Of course, the dynamics of prices & cases are different, but both are often modeled as stochastic processes: prices as GBMs, epidemics as SEIR[S].
At the beginning the parameters of these stochastic processes are unknown. But as data comes in, parameter estimates update. pic.twitter.com/qSLyTkwOxh
He tweeted lots of links to support his hypothesis. He also posted a link to Wikipedia of Excursion probabilities and Geometric Brownian Motions.
Some links:
1) BTC prices: https://t.co/QwqIFY7kIF
2) JHU dashboard: https://t.co/k2ZtXkevaQ
3) Geometric Brownian Motions: https://t.co/rFIQUUqtzP
4) SEIR[S]: https://t.co/QiTqFciubJ
5) Level crossings: https://t.co/Di8fTc7o0H
6) Excursion probabilities: https://t.co/M8sdhRE3V7
In our previous analysis, we had said that Bitcoin’s halving is somewhat affecting the Bitcoin price. Initially, Bitcoin saw a moderately meaningful price boost due to Iran-US tensions and a potential upcoming war. This event shifted the odds in favor of the bulls and enabled them to hatch a daily uptrend which had sufficient power to drive Bitcoin above $9,000 and eventually 10,000.
The summary of Bitcoin price is based on technical indicators like Moving Averages, Oscillators and Pivots. The summary is in between buy to strong buy zone. While the relative strength index is 58.17 and displaying neutral behavior.
Bitcoin Price was managed to establish a higher low at $6,433 on the monthly chart which suggests it is still in an uptrend. Nevertheless, right now what appears to be the most probable situation is completely a break above the high and extension of the uptrend.
