Token Unlock Math: What Comes Free at Capricorn (APR) on October 23

On October 23, 2026, the one-year lock-up for early investors and core developers at Capricorn Tech comes to an end. According to the official project documentation, 92.8 million APR become free on that day, which is 33.4 percent of today's circulating supply. According to the emissions model of the data provider DefiLlama, the figure for the same day is around 149.7 million APR, and therefore almost 54 percent. Both numbers are publicly available, both refer to the same date, and both cannot be right at once.

You will meet exactly this situation at almost every larger token unlock. This article takes the Capricorn case as an exercise and shows you step by step how to work out the quantity being released from a vesting plan yourself, how to test two contradictory calendars against each other, and how to tell which of the two comes closer to the truth. At the end there is a calculation you can run in exactly the same way for any other project.

What is a token unlock and why does it change supply?

A token unlock is the point in time, set by contract or by smart contract, at which previously locked tokens become available to their recipients and can be sold, transferred or deployed for the first time. Before that date the tokens already exist, but they are not in circulation and therefore appear in neither the circulating supply nor the market capitalisation.

The difference is not a bookkeeping question. The circulating supply is the number of tokens that are actually freely tradable, and it is the denominator in almost every metric you read about a coin. When an additional third of that quantity becomes available on a single day, the balance between supply and demand shifts measurably, regardless of whether the recipients actually sell. How strongly depends on who receives the tokens, at what cost base they hold them and how deep the order books of the trading venues are.

The second metric you need for this is the fully diluted valuation, usually abbreviated to FDV: the current price multiplied by the maximum token supply, that is, the value of the project on the assumption that every token ever envisaged were already in circulation. At Capricorn, September 4, 2026 sets a market capitalisation of around 73.1 million US dollars against a fully diluted valuation of around 263.0 million US dollars. That gap is nothing other than the sum of all future unlocks, expressed in money.

What the schedule says for Capricorn (APR) on October 23, 2026

Capricorn Tech, known as aPriori until the rebrand, operates a coordination layer for order flow and liquid staking on the Monad blockchain. The associated token carries the ticker APR and has come through the change of name unaltered. Anyone searching for the coin under the old project name will still find the old labels at many providers, but means the same token and the same schedule.

The starting position in figures, all retrieved from CoinGecko on September 4, 2026 at 00:34 UTC: the price stands at 0.2627 US dollars, roughly 0.226 euros. In circulation are 277,812,500 APR out of a maximum supply of one billion. Trading volume over the past 24 hours came to around 17.4 million US dollars. The all-time high of 0.74 US dollars dates from October 23, 2025, the day trading opened; the all-time low of 0.065 US dollars from February 5, 2026.

The date itself follows directly from the distribution the project published in its documentation. Two pools carry a one-year lock, and both expire exactly one year after trading opened:

• Early Backers, 16 percent of the total supply, that is 160 million APR. Three-year plan with a one-year lock, 33 percent become free after twelve months: 52.8 million APR.
• Core Contributors, likewise 16 percent and 160 million APR. Four-year plan with a one-year lock, 25 percent become free after twelve months: 40.0 million APR.

Together that is 92.8 million APR. At the price on September 4 this corresponds to a value of around 24.4 million US dollars, roughly one and a half times what is traded in total on an average day. Anyone holding a position in APR, or considering one, should know before this date which order types and which fees their own trading venue offers; a comparison of the best crypto exchanges shows where liquidity and cost structure carry small niche assets at all.

Why two unlock calendars name different figures for the same day

The DefiLlama model puts seven separate events on October 23, 2026. Two of them are the lock-ups from the documentation, carried there at 53.3 and 40.0 million APR. The five others are quarterly tranches, that is, regular partial releases from pools that were already partly unlocked on day one: Foundation with 9.6 million, Community Incentives with 13.2 million, Ecosystem Growth with 10.2 million, plus a first quarterly instalment each for Early Backers with 13.3 million and Core Contributors with 10.0 million APR.

Three divergences from the documentation arise out of this, and each has a different character:

1. A rounding. The documentation writes "33 percent" for the Early Backers, the model calculates with a clean third. The difference amounts to around 533,000 APR and is immaterial at this order of magnitude.
2. A question of interpretation about timing. For Early Backers and Core Contributors, the documentation says that the quarterly release follows the lock-up "over the next 24" and "36 months" respectively. On that wording the quarterly series begins only afterwards, which would place the first instalment on January 23, 2027. The model puts it on the lock-up day itself. This interpretation is worth 23.4 million APR.
3. A divisor that can be tested. For Foundation, Community Incentives and Ecosystem Growth, the documentation names a release of ten percent on day one and quarterly instalments over four years thereafter. Four years are sixteen quarters. The model, however, divides the remainder by fifteen, which is why every instalment there comes out a good six percent too large.

The third point is the interesting one, because it cannot be argued over, only recalculated. That is exactly what we do in the next section.

How to read a vesting plan yourself in four steps

A vesting plan is the rule, published in advance, by which a project's individual token pools are released over time. It almost always consists of the same building blocks, and once you can tell them apart, you will read any plan in a few minutes.

Step 1: note the pools and their percentages

At Capricorn there are seven pools: Early Backers and Core Contributors with 16 percent each, Foundation with 16 percent, Community Incentives with 22 percent, Ecosystem Growth with 17 percent, the genesis airdrop with 12 percent and one percent for liquidity. The sum comes to exactly 100 percent, which is already a first check: if something is missing or more comes out, you have an incomplete source in front of you.

Step 2: convert every pool into absolute tokens

Percentages times total supply, here therefore times one billion. Sixteen percent becomes 160 million, 22 percent becomes 220 million. These absolute figures are the only currency in which you can compare anything later.

Step 3: separate the lock from the instalment

A lock-up, called a cliff in English, releases a single large amount on a set date. Linear or quarterly vesting distributes the remainder in equal instalments over a defined period. Both appear in the same line of the documentation and are regularly conflated when read. For the Early Backers that means: 52.8 million on the set date, the remaining 107.2 million afterwards in eight quarterly instalments of 13.4 million each.

Step 4: count the instalments, do not estimate them

Four years of quarterly vesting are sixteen instalments, three years are twelve. This number is the most common silent error in unlock calendars, because it rarely follows directly from the text and usually rests on an assumption about whether the first instalment falls on the start date or a quarter later. Anyone who is out by one here has every single instalment wrong by six to eight percent.

The cross-check: why the circulating supply decides the right divisor

A vesting plan can be read, and it can also be held up against reality. Today's circulating supply is, after all, the result of every release that has already taken place since trading opened. If your calculation is correct, it has to hit that number.

For Capricorn the cross-check looks like this. Free on day one were the genesis airdrop with 120 million, the liquidity pool with 10 million, plus ten percent each from Foundation, Community Incentives and Ecosystem Growth, that is 16.0 plus 22.0 plus 17.0 million. Together that comes to 185.0 million APR. Since the start on October 23, 2025, three quarterly dates have passed: January 23, April 23 and July 23, 2026.

Now the divisor comes into play. Calculate the three pools with sixteen quarterly instalments and each round yields 9.0 plus 12.375 plus 9.5625 million, together 30,937,500 APR. Three such rounds are 92,812,500 APR. Added to the 185 million from day one, that gives 277,812,500 APR, and thus, to the single token, exactly the circulating supply that CoinGecko and the Tokenomist unlock calendar report in agreement.

With fifteen instalments you would arrive at 33.0 million per round and, after three rounds, at 284.0 million APR, a good six million too many. Reality therefore settles the question of interpretation: the divisor is sixteen, and the three quarterly tranches falling due on October 23 come to 30.9 million APR rather than 33.0 million. This calculation assumes that the genesis airdrop is fully distributed and unlocked; the documentation names no lock for it, and the exact landing on the token confirms the assumption.

Two robust figures for October 23, 2026 follow from this:

• Lower, well-evidenced reading: 92.8 million from the two lock-ups plus 30.9 million from the three quarterly tranches, together 123.7 million APR. That is 44.5 percent of today's circulating supply and, at the price on September 4, a value of around 32.5 million US dollars.
• Upper reading: if the first quarterly instalments for Early Backers and Core Contributors are added on the set date itself, the figure is 147.1 million APR, so 53 percent of the circulating supply and around 38.6 million US dollars.

What remains within the range is the question of when the quarterly series begins, and that cannot be settled conclusively from the published wording. The honest answer is therefore the span, not the one neat figure. We have already worked through the same separation between a set-date release and a running instalment in the case of DoubleZero, where the instalment started immediately after the set date.

Cliff, linear vesting and quarterly tranche: the terms in an unlock schedule

Four terms are enough to understand any unlock calendar, and they are regularly muddled.

Cliff

The cliff is the waiting period during which nothing at all flows out of a pool, followed by a single large release on the set date. It is the reason unlock dates are perceived as an event in the first place: supply rises on one single day instead of gradually over months.

Linear vesting

With linear vesting the quantity flows evenly, often daily or block by block. For the price this is the friendlier form, because the market only has to absorb a small part each day. A calendar that shows set dates alone hides this running dilution.

Quarterly tranche

The quarterly tranche is the hybrid: no daily flow and no one-off event either, but four equally sized releases a year. At Capricorn three such tranches happen to fall on the same day as the large cliff, because trading opened on October 23 and the quarterly dates have fallen on the 23rd ever since.

Dilution

Dilution describes the loss of share suffered by existing holders when the total number of circulating tokens rises. That is a statement about quantity alone and not yet a statement about price. Anyone holding 1,000 APR owns a share of 277.8 million tokens today and, on the lower reading, a share of a good 401 million tokens on October 24.

What an unlock says about the price and what it does not

Caution is warranted here, because at this point a calculation of quantities turns quickly into a forecast. The clean separation runs like this: the quantity being released is a fact, the effect on the price is an expectation, and expectations belong to those who hold them.

The bear case rests on the relationship between the release and market depth. A value of 24 to 39 million US dollars meets a daily volume of around 17 million. Even if only a fraction of the recipients sell, that fraction has to be absorbed by buyers who do not yet exist today. Early investors also hold their tokens at a cost base from the period before trading opened, which is why even a sharply fallen price can be a profit for them.

The bull case counters that unlock dates have been publicly listed in calendars for years and are therefore anticipated by the market. Recipients of large tranches rarely sell across the open order book, because doing so spoils their own price; off-exchange sales, hedging via futures markets or contribution to liquidity pools are common. On top of that, part of the released tokens goes to a foundation or an ecosystem programme and is tied up there for incentives instead of reaching the market.

What you can take from this is above all a matter of preparation: you know the day, you know the order of magnitude, and you can settle your own conduct beforehand instead of improvising on the date itself. How differently the market reactions turn out is shown by a comparison with earlier cases from our coverage, such as the LayerZero unlock of August 2026.

What Capricorn Tech builds and why aprMON belongs in the calculation

For placing the unlock in context it is worth a look at the product, because whether the additional supply meets any demand at all depends on it. Capricorn Tech describes itself as a coordination layer for order flow on fast blockchains and names three building blocks: the segmentation of order flow, an infrastructure that accounts for the value of transaction ordering, and liquid staking.

Liquid staking means that you deposit your coins to secure a network and receive in return a tradable substitute token that certifies your deposited share together with the returns accrued on it. At Capricorn this substitute token is called aprMON. It is expressly not the same thing as APR: the one certifies deposited coins of the base network, the other is the project's own token. Anyone who confuses the two applies the unlock to the wrong position. Anyone who confuses the two also underestimates how much of the deposited stock this date touches at all.

The token was issued on Ethereum and is additionally present on BNB Chain and on Monad. For you as a holder that means one thing above all: before any transfer you have to check which chain your holding actually sits on, because a withdrawal to the wrong chain can be lost permanently.

Where to look up unlock dates yourself

Three levels are enough, and they come in a clear order of rank.

The project documentation

The project's documentation is the only primary source for the rule itself. If you find no distribution there with percentages, lock-ups and vesting periods, the project has simply not disclosed its token distribution, and every figure you read about it elsewhere is an estimate. A practical tip for documentation hosted on GitBook: append .md to the page URL and you get the plain text without the interface around it.

Independent emissions models

Providers such as DefiLlama or Tokenomist translate the rule into individual dated events. That is convenient and is what makes dates comparable in the first place. It is, however, an interpretation, as the Capricorn case shows, and the assumptions behind it are rarely stated alongside.

The chain and the market data

Circulating supply, price and trading volume give you the cross-check from the previous section. Where model and reality diverge, it is almost always the model that has made one assumption too many.

Two further dates are worth noting if you are following an individual project: the anniversary of the trading launch, because one-year locks almost always fall on it, and the quarterly date that follows, because the running instalments sit there. At Capricorn those are October 23 and, after that, January 23, 2027.

What investors in Germany should settle before an unlock date

Three points can be dealt with beforehand, independently of how the price moves.

The holding period. Under section 23 of the German Income Tax Act, gains from the sale of cryptocurrencies are tax-free if more than a year lies between purchase and sale; below that, the exemption threshold for private disposal transactions applies, which has stood at 1,000 euros a year since 2024. Anyone close to the end of their own one-year period should know which purchase date the tax office applies to which part of their holding before a decision about the date arises. This is general information and is no substitute for tax advice.

The place of custody. If the holding sits on a trading platform, you can act quickly on the day, but you carry the provider's default risk. If it sits in your own wallet, it belongs to you alone, and ahead of a volatile date you need a tested transfer route rather than an improvised address.

Your own rule. A set date is the best occasion to write down beforehand what is to happen at which price. Anyone deciding only on the day itself decides under time pressure. At other projects, moreover, the running monthly instalment was the figure that mattered, while the set date merely supplied the headline.

Frequently asked questions about the Capricorn (APR) token unlock

When is the next Capricorn unlock?

On October 23, 2026, one year after trading opened. The date is named in agreement by the project documentation, by the DefiLlama emissions model and by the Tokenomist calendar.

How many APR become free on that day?

From the two one-year locks, 92.8 million APR. Together with the three recalculated quarterly tranches the figure is 123.7 million. Count the quarterly instalments for early investors and core developers from the set date as well and you arrive at a good 147 million, while the DefiLlama model names just under 150 million.

Does the price always fall at a token unlock?

No. An unlock increases available supply, but says nothing about whether and when the recipients sell. Historically there have been dates with a marked price decline, dates with no discernible reaction, and individual dates with rising prices, because the uncertainty about the date fell away afterwards.

How do I recognise that an unlock calendar is calculating wrongly?

By the cross-check: add up all releases since trading opened and compare the result with the reported circulating supply. If the sum diverges, the error almost always sits in the number of instalments or in the starting point of the series.

What does FDV mean in connection with unlocks?

The fully diluted valuation is the price times the maximum supply. The distance between it and the market capitalisation corresponds to the value of all tokens not yet in circulation, and thus to the entire future unlock volume.

Calculating a token unlock: what to take away

1. Work out the quantity yourself before you adopt a headline. Percentage times total supply, separate the lock from the instalment, count the instalments. For October 23, 2026 you arrive at a span of 92.8 to around 147 million APR at Capricorn, depending on which interpretation you choose for the start of the quarterly series. Then place the figure in your portfolio, for instance with one of the tools from the comparison of tax and portfolio tools.
2. Run the cross-check against the circulating supply. All releases to date added together must give the circulating supply reported today. At Capricorn the calculation with sixteen quarterly instalments hits that figure exactly; with fifteen it is six million out. If you come across returns on deposited coins in the process, check the terms in the comparison of staking providers before you tie up a position.
3. Settle custody and transfer route before the set date. Which chain the holding sits on, where it should go if in doubt, and how long the route there takes. Anyone wanting to hold their stock in their own hands will find the devices in the hardware wallet comparison; anyone wanting to trade should know fees and order types beforehand.

The full distribution including lock-ups is set out in the official documentation of Capricorn Tech; the individual dated events and the current circulating supply can be looked up in the unlock calendar at Tokenomist.

(As of September 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)