ETH vs BTC: Could Ethereum Really Flip Bitcoin Within a Year?

Bitcoin’s reign at the top of the crypto market is facing its biggest challenge yet. Ethereum’s recent surge in strength has reignited debates about whether it can overtake BTC in market cap, a moment traders call the flippening. With momentum shifting and investor sentiment leaning bullish, the stage is set for a potential power shift in the months ahead.

ETH vs BTC: thereum Could Surpass Bitcoin in Just 12 Months?

Ethereum’s rally is picking up pace, and it’s starting to turn heads. In a recent CNBC interview, co-founder Joseph Lubin said ETH could overtake Bitcoin in market capitalization within the next year, a scenario long referred to as “the flippening.” At today’s prices, that would mean ETH climbing toward the $20,000 mark. 

Adding fuel to the speculation, analyst Ali Martinez reports that Ethereum’s net capital inflow has already surpassed Bitcoin’s — a shift many see as the clearest sign yet that altcoin season is underway. With both BTC and ETH charts showing fresh bullish momentum, the race for the top spot may be tighter than ever.

ETH vs BTC: Bitcoin Market Cap Analysis

The BTC total market cap currently stands at approximately $2.4 trillion, up 2.22% on the day. The daily chart shows a recent breakout above the mid-Bollinger Band, with the price now testing the upper band. This indicates bullish momentum returning after a prolonged sideways phase through late July and early August.

Volume has picked up slightly, and the price has broken through immediate resistance at $2.35T, suggesting buyers are regaining control. However, overhead resistance near $2.5T (upper Bollinger limit) could be a short-term test. If BTC clears this level decisively, the next target is $2.65T followed by $2.75T. On the downside, holding above $2.3T will be critical to avoid slipping back into the consolidation range.

In short — BTC is showing early signs of an upward push, but momentum is less aggressive than ETH’s current trajectory.

ETH vs BTC: Ethereum Market Cap Analysis

ETH’s total market cap has climbed to about $516 billion, up 0.58% today but more importantly, showing a strong recovery trend since early August. The breakout above the mid-Bollinger Band and sustained green candles signal that bulls are firmly in control. ETH is trading above key resistance at $510B, with the next upside targets at $550B and $600B.

Unlike BTC, ETH’s market cap has been rising more consistently over the past two weeks, hinting at stronger institutional and treasury-driven accumulation. The price structure also shows that ETH recovered faster from its July pullback compared to BTC, with the Bollinger Bands now expanding — a sign of potential volatility in favor of the bulls.

If this trend continues and ETH price keeps outpacing BTC in percentage growth, Lubin’s projection starts to look less like hype and more like a calculated forecast.

The Flippening Angle: What’s Fueling ETH’s Case

Several factors strengthen the argument for ETH flipping BTC:

• Treasury adoption: Lubin’s comments about treasury companies adding ETH to their reserves could significantly boost demand.
• DeFi and staking growth: ETH’s utility beyond being a store of value gives it more fundamental demand drivers.
• Net capital change advantage: As Ali Martinez pointed out, ETH is attracting more new capital than BTC — historically a key sign of market rotation.

Given the current pace, if BTC maintains slow, steady growth while ETH accelerates at even 1.5x BTC’s rate, a flippening within a year is mathematically possible.

ETH vs BTC: Prediction and Outlook

• BTC Short Term (1–3 months): Likely to face resistance at $2.5T, with potential pullbacks to $2.35T before any move higher. A breakout could target $2.65T–$2.75T.
• ETH Short Term (1–3 months): Bullish momentum may push toward $550B–$600B market cap, with support at $500B. If momentum sustains, ETH could outperform BTC gains by year-end.

12-Month Flippening Probability: If ETH maintains higher net capital inflows and treasury adoption expands, the flippening could occur before Q4 2026. BTC dominance would need to fall below 45% for the crossover to happen.

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