After falling to a low of $94K, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100K mark, sparking renewed excitement in the crypto market. This 7% recovery has fueled price gains across the entire crypto market, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s lead. However, there are growing concerns that Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance level at $104K, which it has struggled to break.
Bitcoin Price Recovers to $100K
After a brief period of weakness, Bitcoin has rebounded from its recent low of $94K to reclaim the psychologically important $100K level. This 7% recovery has also triggered a rally across the broader crypto market, with many altcoins posting significant gains.
The recovery was seen as a positive sign by many investors, especially since Bitcoin had briefly fallen below $100K, a key psychological level. For context, $100K is a critical round number that often acts as support or resistance. Traders view it as a "make-or-break" level, and Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim it has restored some bullish sentiment.
BTC/USD 2-hours chart - TradingView
Why Are Investors Worried About the $104K Resistance?
While Bitcoin’s return to $100K is seen as a positive development, concerns are mounting as BTC faces strong resistance at $104K.
This price level has proven difficult to breach, and every attempt so far has been met with selling pressure. Resistance at $104K indicates that sellers are actively taking profits at this level, making it a critical point to watch in the coming days.
Here’s why this matters:
- No New Highs: Bitcoin’s failure to break above $104K has prevented it from setting a new high, which is typically a signal that a bullrun is losing momentum.
- Trend Reversal Risk: If Bitcoin continues to fail at $104K, traders may interpret it as a signal that the bullrun is coming to an end.
- Profit-Taking by Whales: Large investors (whales) often sell significant amounts of Bitcoin at major resistance levels, which adds to the selling pressure.
If Bitcoin is unable to break above $104K, it could lead to further consolidation or even a deeper correction. Investors are watching closely to see if Bitcoin can reclaim this level in the coming days.
Is January’s Crash Coming?
One of the biggest concerns for investors right now is the possibility of a January crash. Historically, Bitcoin bullruns that start in October and run through December have always been followed by a market-wide crash in January.
This pattern has repeated itself in several past cycles. Here's a breakdown of what typically happens:
- Bitcoin Accumulation: Investors accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, which sparks a rally.
- Ethereum Inflows: After Bitcoin, money flows into Ethereum as investors diversify their portfolios.
- Large-Cap Rally: Major altcoins like Solana, Cardano, and Binance Coin start to rise.
- Small-Cap Altcoins Surge: Investors seek higher returns by buying smaller, riskier altcoins.
- Crash: The bullrun ends, investors sell their holdings, and a large correction hits the market.
- Accumulation Resumes: Investors begin accumulating Bitcoin again at lower prices, restarting the cycle.
The idea that "January is crash season" has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Knowing this, many investors prepare to liquidate their positions before January, creating additional selling pressure. If Bitcoin is unable to break above $104K, many traders may decide to exit early, increasing the likelihood of a crash.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Low Could It Go?
The big question on everyone’s mind is: How low could Bitcoin go if the January crash happens?
Based on previous market cycles, a crash could take Bitcoin back to a range of $60,000 to $70,000. Here’s why:
- Historical Trends: In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price has retraced 30% to 50% after a major bullrun.
- Psychological Levels: Both $70K and $60K are key psychological levels where buyers are expected to step in and "buy the dip."
- Accumulation Zones: During past crashes, Bitcoin has always seen strong accumulation at these levels, suggesting that buyers are waiting for prices to drop to these ranges.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $104K in the coming weeks, many analysts believe that the $60K to $70K range will be the new target for long-term accumulation.
BTC/USD 1-day chart - TradingView
Bitcoin Future: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The next few weeks will be critical for Bitcoin’s future price direction. If Bitcoin manages to break above $104K, it could signal that the bullrun is still intact, and prices could move higher.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin faces rejection at $104K and begins forming lower highs, it could signal a loss of bullish momentum. If that happens, we may see a larger correction, possibly sending Bitcoin down to $92K, $70K, or even $60K.
Here’s what to watch for in the coming days:
- Can Bitcoin Break $104K? This is the key resistance level. If BTC breaks it, the bullrun continues.
- Are Investors Taking Profits? Watch for signs of heavy selling, which could indicate that big players (whales) are preparing for a January crash.
- Look for Lower Highs: If Bitcoin starts making lower highs, it could signal a trend reversal.
Many experienced investors are taking a cautious approach as January approaches, knowing that every bullrun from October to December in previous years ended in a crash.
