Fed Rate Decision: Every FOMC Date to 2027 and How Bitcoin Reacted

At its Fed rate decision on 28 October 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, by a 10–2 vote. The next Fed rate decision is due on Wednesday, 9 December 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET (19:00 UTC), the last meeting of the year and one with new projections. The record also shows how Bitcoin traded around the last ten decisions: the table further down lists the price at the hour of each announcement, 24 hours later and seven days later. Our assessment, set out in the section on Bitcoin's reaction, is that the direction of the rate move did not predict the direction of the price in this series.

Key points

• Next Fed decision: 9 December 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference at 2:30 p.m. In London that is 7:00 p.m. and in Frankfurt 8:00 p.m.
• Decision of 28 October: hold at 3.75% to 4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted to hike already.
• Current rate: 3.75% to 4.00% since 16 September 2026, the first hike since July 2023.
• December expectations: traders on the prediction market Polymarket give a quarter-point hike on 9 December a 76.5% chance (as of 29 October 2026).
• Fed projection: the median official sees the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, one step above today's range.
• Bitcoin after ten decisions: higher after 24 hours five times and lower five times, up 0.1% after 28 October. A week later it was lower in six of nine cases and higher in three. The best week followed the September hike, a gain of 11.4%.

What Fed week means for Bitcoin's key levels over the coming days is covered in our Bitcoin price prediction for the Fed meeting and the options expiry. This page remains the reference: dates, decisions and market reactions, updated after every meeting.

Fed rate decision on 28 October 2026: hold at 3.75% to 4.00%

The committee kept the target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October by a 10–2 vote, according to the statement of 28 October. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring to raise the range by a quarter point at this meeting. The statement describes strong economic growth and inflation that remains elevated, and it does not commit to the next step: more information will help the committee determine the appropriate policy stance.

The hold arrived exactly as priced: on 25 October Polymarket had put 94.5% on no change. Bitcoin traded at $80,748 at the hour of the announcement and at $80,798 24 hours later, a gain of 0.1%. In the first three hours the gap between high and low was 1.4%, at the low end of our series. For the December meeting traders still put 76.5% on a hike and 21.5% on a hold (as of 29 October 2026).

The Fed releases its statement at 2:00 p.m. Washington time on the second day of the meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference starts half an hour later, according to the Federal Reserve's October calendar. For most of the year that means 7:00 p.m. in London and 8:00 p.m. in Frankfurt. On 28 October Europe was an hour closer: the UK and the euro area turned their clocks back on 25 October, the United States only followed on 1 November. For one week the gap between London and Washington shrank to four hours.

The October meeting did not come with new economic projections, which the Fed publishes at only four of its eight meetings a year, next on 9 December. Markets traded the decision itself, the wording of the statement and the answers at the press conference.

Before the meeting, expectations were one-sided. On Polymarket, traders put 94.5% on no change and 4.5% on a hike of 25 basis points, while a cut is all but priced out (as of 25 October 2026). For December the picture was already reversed: 76.5% for a hike, 20.5% for a hold.

The case for another hike comes from the minutes of the September meeting, which state that "another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end". We looked at that sentence and its effect on the market in our piece on the Fed minutes pointing to a hike by year-end.

One day later, on Thursday 29 October, the European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50%. Investors holding euros have two decisions to watch in the same week: every ECB meeting date to 2027 and how Bitcoin reacted to each decision are in our overview of the ECB rate decision.

What the Fed decides at an FOMC meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the rate at which US banks lend to each other overnight, and through it the cost of credit across the economy. Twelve members vote: the seven governors in Washington, the president of the New York Fed and four presidents of other regional reserve banks on an annual rotation. The range is a quarter of a percentage point wide and usually moves in steps of 25 basis points.

At four meetings a year, in March, June, September and December, the Fed also publishes its Summary of Economic Projections. It includes the dot plot, in which every participant marks anonymously where they see the policy rate at the end of the coming years. The median of those dots is the figure markets and analysts focus on, because it shows the path most officials consider appropriate.

FOMC meeting schedule 2026 and 2027 with times

The Fed holds eight two-day meetings a year and announces its decision on the second day at 2:00 p.m. ET. In UTC that is 18:00 during US daylight saving time and 19:00 in winter. Readers in Europe should note the weeks when only one side has changed its clocks: like the 28 October 2026 decision, the one on 17 March 2027 lands an hour earlier than usual in London, Paris and Berlin.

The dates come from the FOMC meeting calendar, last updated on 7 October 2026. The Fed treats each date as tentative until it is confirmed at the preceding meeting. Minutes follow three weeks after each meeting, also at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Fed interest rate today: 3.75% to 4.00% since 16 September

On 16 September 2026 the Fed voted unanimously to raise the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first increase since July 2023, as the Fed's record of rate changes shows. The statement justified the move with inflation, saying it would support a timelier return to the 2% goal.

The year before split into two halves. Between September and December 2025 the Fed cut three times by a quarter point each, from 4.25%–4.50% to 3.50%–3.75%. It then held for five meetings while inflation picked up again, partly driven by higher energy prices, as the statements from April onwards note. They cite the conflict in the Middle East as a source of elevated uncertainty.

The projections of 16 September show where officials want to go. The median sees the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and again at 4.1% at the end of 2027, falling to 3.9% only in 2028. In June the same figures were 3.8% and 3.6%. For PCE inflation the median expects 3.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.

Every Fed rate decision since September 2025 and how Bitcoin reacted

For each meeting we took the Bitcoin price at the hour of the announcement and compared it with the price 24 hours and seven days later, using Coinbase hourly prices for BTC-USD.

Three cuts, and three times Bitcoin was lower a week later. One hike, and Bitcoin gained 11.4% over the following week. After 24 hours the picture was balanced: five gains, five losses. The hold of 28 October barely moved the price, up 0.1%, and we will add the one-week figure on 4 November. In the first three hours after each decision, the gap between high and low ranged from 1.2% to 3.2%.

Part of the pattern is the broader trend. Between the September 2025 and July 2026 meetings, Bitcoin fell from $115,587 to $64,191 at the hour of the announcement. In a falling market most weeks end lower, Fed or no Fed. The best week in the series, by contrast, came during the recovery after the summer, and it started with the only tightening decision.

Our assessment: the rule of thumb that rate cuts are good for Bitcoin and hikes are bad does not survive this series. What moved the price was how the decision compared with expectations and where the wider market was already heading. The September hike was widely expected, with Polymarket at 87.5% on the morning of 16 September, so the decision removed uncertainty rather than adding it. The cuts in October and December 2025 came after the record high of 6 October 2025 at about $126,300. The counterargument: ten meetings are a small sample, and none of them delivered a genuine surprise against market pricing. For the longer view, our Bitcoin price prediction sets out the scenarios analysts are working with.

How the Fed rate decision feeds into the Bitcoin price

The policy rate reaches Bitcoin through three channels. The first is the yield on safe assets: when rates rise, cash and short-dated Treasuries pay more, and holding an asset with no income becomes relatively more expensive. The second is the dollar. Higher rates support the currency, and a stronger dollar weighs on the dollar price of many assets. The third is the cost of leverage. Pricier funding makes leveraged positions on derivatives exchanges more expensive and shrinks demand that relies on borrowed money.

All three work over weeks and months. On the evening of a decision, what matters is the gap to expectations. If the market prices a hold at 94.5% and the hold arrives, it is already in the price. Moves then come from the statement's wording, from dissents and from the press conference. In July, three members voted against the hold in favour of a hike, as the statement of 29 July records. In September the committee took exactly the step those three had asked for.

Fed decisions in 2026: from a long hold to the first hike under Warsh

This year's decisions read as a change of direction that built up over months.

• 28 January: hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented in favour of another cut.
• 18 March: hold. Only Miran voted for a cut.
• 29 April: hold, Jerome Powell's last meeting as Chair. Four dissents: Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan objected to language that kept the door open to further easing.
• 17 June: unanimous hold, the first meeting under Kevin Warsh. The statement shrank from 348 to 138 words and pointed to energy supply shocks as a driver of inflation.
• 29 July: hold by a 9–3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan already wanted to raise rates.
• 16 September: unanimous hike of 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
• 28 October: hold at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted another hike.

If you were running a savings plan in September, our article on the Fed hike and the Bitcoin savings plan covers the impact. The table above gains a new row after every meeting.

Fed day and your crypto portfolio: leverage, timing and regular buying

A Fed evening is not an ordinary evening for Bitcoin. In our series the swing in the hours afterwards reached up to 3.2%. Three things matter more than usual.

• Leverage: a position at ten times leverage is down 30% after a 3% move against it. Tight stop-losses are often triggered on such evenings, even when the price recovers afterwards.
• Timing: 2:00 p.m. ET on 9 December 2026 and on 27 January 2027. Anyone with open orders on an exchange knows the moment and can decide beforehand whether to leave them in place.
• Regular buying instead of timing: buying at fixed intervals removes the need to call the Fed evening, and our series shows how poorly the decision predicted the direction. Providers that offer a Bitcoin savings plan are listed in our comparison, and trading fees in our exchange comparison.

Crypto assets are highly volatile and you can lose all of your money. This page explains dates and data and is not investment advice.

Fed in December: the projection points to 4.00% to 4.25%

If the Fed follows its own projection, the policy rate will end 2026 at 4.00% to 4.25%, a quarter point above today's range. On 28 October the Fed held, two members already wanted to hike, and the statement leaves the next step open. The market still places the hike in December, at 76.5% (as of 29 October 2026). The December meeting also brings new projections, and the median will show whether officials stick to 4.1% for 2027. This page will be updated with the new row, the price and the reaction after every decision.