MicroStrategy Always Buys Bitcoin: Shares Fall Anyway

MicroStrategy has become a poster child for institutional Bitcoin accumulation, yet its stock continues to behave in unpredictable ways. While the company’s Bitcoin holdings have ballooned to tens of billions of dollars in unrealized gains, its share price doesn't always follow suit. So why is the market punishing a company that’s winning on paper? This article dives deep into that paradox.

How Much Bitcoin Does MicroStrategy Hold in 2025?

As of June 1, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 580,955 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $40.68 billion. This means the average purchase price per Bitcoin is approximately $70,023.

Now consider this:

Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,796 (June 2025).

Let’s calculate the unrealized gain:

Unrealized Gain = (Current Price - Average Cost) x Total BTC

= ($104,796 - $70,023) × 580,955
= $34,773 × 580,955
= $20.21 billion in paper profit

This is a staggering gain on a balance sheet, giving MicroStrategy one of the largest corporate crypto portfolios in the world. So why are the company’s shares not reflecting that growth?

MicroStrategy Stock Price Isn’t Moving with Bitcoin: What’s Going On?

Despite Bitcoin’s rise, MicroStrategy stock has seen stagnation and even decline in recent sessions. After buying another 705 BTC for $75 million between May 26 and June 1, the stock rose just 0.9%, closing at $372.72. This modest increase seems disconnected from the bullish Bitcoin momentum.

There are three main reasons for this divergence:

• Investor Fatigue: Shareholders may be growing weary of the company’s Bitcoin-first narrative. The tech intelligence business that once defined MicroStrategy is now overshadowed by crypto holdings.
• Leverage and Dilution: To fund its Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy has repeatedly issued convertible debt, equity, and most recently, a new junior perpetual preferred stock (STRD) offering a 10%+ yield. These financial maneuvers cause dilution and concern over long-term liabilities.
• Speculative Risk Perception: Traditional investors view MicroStrategy not as a software firm anymore, but as a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with corporate overhead. This perception drags down valuations due to risk models that apply crypto-style volatility discounts.

Predictive Math: Where Could MicroStrategy Stock Go?

Let’s explore three forecast scenarios using Net Asset Value (NAV) logic based on Bitcoin price projections:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin hits $200,000

• Value of BTC holdings = $200,000 × 580,955 = $116.19 billion
• NAV (after liabilities) ~ $159 billion
• Possible MSTR stock price (based on SOTP model) = $1,800–$2,400

Scenario 2: Bitcoin reaches $500,000

• BTC value = $500,000 × 580,955 = $290.48 billion
• NAV could rise to $400+ billion
• MSTR stock could reach $4,000+, assuming no massive dilution

Scenario 3: Bitcoin crashes to $50,000

• BTC value = $50,000 × 580,955 = $29.04 billion
• NAV may dip near $30 billion, barely above acquisition cost
• MSTR stock could drop below $200, especially under heavy selling pressure

As seen, the future of MicroStrategy’s stock is tightly bound to Bitcoin’s path—but with amplified volatility due to leverage and sentiment.

Is MicroStrategy Stock a Bitcoin ETF in Disguise?

CEO Michael Saylor has long maintained that MicroStrategy is a proxy for digital gold. He even hinted that MSTR is superior to a Bitcoin ETF due to strategic leverage and tax benefits. But that’s a double-edged sword. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses.

The difference between MSTR and a spot ETF is this:

• ETFs passively track Bitcoin.
• MSTR uses financial engineering to outperform—or underperform—depending on how the market swings.

Investors seeking direct Bitcoin exposure with added corporate strategy might see value here. But others may be turned off by the lack of diversification and mounting interest obligations tied to the company’s Bitcoin debt.

Market Sentiment: Why the Disconnect?

Investor psychology plays a big role in MicroStrategy’s price action. Here’s what sentiment indicators are telling us:

• Google Trends shows decreasing retail search interest in "MicroStrategy stock" compared to "Bitcoin ETF".
• Options data reveals increasing put-to-call ratios, signaling bearish bets.
• Institutional holdings have remained flat, indicating neither strong buy-in nor abandonment.

This suggests that while Bitcoin’s fundamentals excite crypto investors, equity market participants aren’t fully convinced about MicroStrategy’s execution and long-term viability.

Will MicroStrategy Stock Soar or Sink?

MicroStrategy remains one of the most daring corporate bets on Bitcoin in financial history. With over $20 billion in unrealized BTC gains, it's clear the company is winning its macro bet—at least for now.

However, stock performance is more nuanced. Investors must factor in dilution, debt, and the high-risk transformation from software analytics firm to Bitcoin investment vehicle.

If Bitcoin maintains momentum toward $150K or more, MSTR could break past $600 or $700 easily. But if BTC drops below $60K, the stock could tank sharply below $300, regardless of unrealized gains.

In conclusion, MicroStrategy is no longer just a tech company—it’s a leveraged bet on Bitcoin wrapped in a corporate shell. For those bullish on Bitcoin and willing to stomach equity market volatility, it’s a high-beta play with potentially astronomical upside. For everyone else, it may be smarter to hold Bitcoin directly—or just watch from the sidelines.

Bitcoin Holds Steady but Struggles at Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,778, slightly below the recent local high of around $110,000. The chart shows a pullback after a bullish rally through April and May. The most critical moving averages — the 20, 50, and 100-day SMAs — are aligned bullishly, with price action consistently above the 100-day SMA (~$92,110) and well above the 200-day SMA (~$95,046), which are acting as long-term support.

However, the price has lost momentum near the $105K–$107K resistance zone, as reflected by multiple small-bodied candles and lower highs forming since late May. The Heikin Ashi candles are showing indecision — smaller wicks and flattening body range — indicating potential consolidation or a short-term trend reversal. If Bitcoin breaks below the $100,000 psychological level, it could revisit the $95,000 zone, which aligns with the 200 SMA.

That said, if BTC manages to close above $107,000, we may see a renewed push toward $115,000 and even $120,000, with Fibonacci extensions supporting this target range.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Lags Despite BTC Gains

MicroStrategy stock is currently priced at $381.08, showing a minor change on the day despite a strong recovery in Bitcoin since March. The price action lags BTC’s performance, which is evident when comparing the magnitude of BTC’s rally to MSTR’s flat-to-bearish trajectory over the same period.

MSTR had a bullish breakout in late April, mimicking Bitcoin’s breakout, but failed to sustain the momentum. It retraced hard from the $425 resistance level, forming lower highs. The current price is now stuck between the 50 SMA ($353.96) and 100 SMA ($334.85), while the 200 SMA at $295.22 is still far below, signaling that the broader long-term trend remains intact. However, the failure to reclaim the 20 SMA ($394.45) reflects a lack of short-term bullish strength.

Heikin Ashi candles over the past week have begun to flatten with small bullish bodies, suggesting a temporary bottom around $370. Still, the lack of volume and failure to convincingly follow BTC’s lead casts doubt on any imminent breakout.

Correlation Breakdown: Why MicroStrategy Stock Isn’t Keeping Up with BTC?

Historically, MicroStrategy stock has followed Bitcoin’s price action with amplified volatility. However, we now see a divergence. While Bitcoin continues to trade above major support zones and maintains a healthy bullish structure, MSTR is showing early signs of weakness.

This could be attributed to three overlapping factors:

• Market Sentiment Divergence: Investors may be increasingly cautious of MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin exposure and dilutive capital strategies (e.g., STRD issuance). This fear isn't present in pure BTC trading.
• Valuation Lag: Bitcoin is still relatively early in its new uptrend. Equity markets tend to be slower in re-pricing NAV into stock value unless new catalysts (like BTC hitting all-time highs) emerge.
• Short-Term Correlation Slippage: The correlation between MSTR and BTC often tightens during rapid BTC rallies and loosens during sideways or uncertain price action. We’re in the latter phase right now.

Predictive Outlook: What’s Next?

If Bitcoin can break above $107K and approach $115K–$120K, it would likely reignite retail and institutional excitement. This could be the spark needed for MSTR to finally reclaim the $400–$420 range. A breakout in BTC beyond $120K would push MSTR toward $460–$500 if volume supports it.

Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold $100K, and slides to $95K or below, MSTR will likely break below $370 and test the 50 SMA support at $354, with further downside risk to $335 and $295.

Mathematically, with MicroStrategy holding ~580,955 BTC, every $1,000 increase in BTC value adds $580.95 million to its unrealized gains. So, a move from $105K to $120K in BTC translates to roughly $8.7 billion in additional value. The market will eventually reprice this, but not without confirmation.

Conclusion: Watch the Convergence Point

Bitcoin’s price action is showing resilience and holding its bullish structure, while MicroStrategy’s stock appears to be stalling. This temporary divergence could resolve in either direction over the coming days. The technical pivot zone for BTC is $107K, and for MSTR, it’s $394. A breakout above these levels for both assets would restore their historical correlation and may lead to synchronized gains.

Until then, traders should stay cautious. The charts are hinting at a decisive week ahead.

$BTC, $Bitcoin, $MSTR