S&P 500 Forecast: Lower Low Confirms Downtrend

The S&P 500 had a really weak open today, currently at 3,252 and trending lower. The index seems to be aiming for the next support level at 3,204, however, the bulls will need some significant strength to bounce back up.

SP 500 4-Hour Chart – TradingView

The daily RSI is getting close to overextension levels for the first time since March 2020. On September 18, bulls lost the important 100-MA and the S&P price is getting closer to the 200-MA at 3,184. It seems that the market is trying to find some sort of footing, however, if we continue breaking important support levels, we could see an extended downtrend.

On the other hand, if we can jump back up towards the 100-MA and close above it, the S&P 500 could be poised for a move towards 4,400. The Federal Reserve left investors wanting a bit more last week and the testimony from Jerome Powell for September 23 remains as the most important even in the short-term.

The Fed already announced its latest policy about AIT, the Average Inflation Targeting to protect the U.S. economy from the Coronavirus.

If stocks react positively to Powell’s speeches this week, we could see the entire stock market recover and the cryptocurrency market to follow suit. Bitcoin is down 3% today following the price action of the S&P 500 and the U.S. stock market in general.

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Average Inflation Targeting

The Federal Reserve announced this measure in late August to limit the damage caused by the pandemic. The idea behind this method is to allow inflation to actually occur and run above 2%. It’s not yet known how can this be achieved, however, Powell stated that the approach will be flexible.

This measure is not new and has been applied before in the 1990s. The idea behind the AIT is good and in theory, should help the U.S. stock market in general, at least in the short to mid-terms.